Although the general election in the United States will not begin until the end of 2024, the Republicans and Democrats are already in extremely fierce competition. Due to a series of governance problems and setbacks in the Biden administration, poor political performance, public complaints, and Trump's unwillingness to lose the competition three years ago, the Republican Party is determined to win next year's election. The Democrats, on the other hand, have focused their efforts on preventing Trump from running because they also believe that Biden may not be Trump's opponent.
Not long ago, Biden stumbled Trump again, and a Democratic-controlled vote base, a court in Colorado, ruled that Trump should be barred from running in the state, but this had little impact on Trump, and he will continue to run. And Trump has recently publicly stated that if he is re-elected, he will impose tougher tariffs on China.
Trump has said that if he can re-enter the White House next year, he will increase tariffs on all Chinese goods, and his fundamental goal is to deglobalize the United States and even cut off economic ties with China altogether. Trump has even gone so far as to say that he will ban the United States from importing a large portion of Chinese goods, prohibit Chinese from owning assets in the United States, and prohibit Americans from investing in China. He will also vigorously promote a manufacturing revival in the United States and wean the United States from its dependence on global supply chains.
Essentially, economic globalization was driven by the Americans, who relocated the less profitable manufacturing industry to the higher profit service industries, the financial industry, and the high-tech industry. Trump's proposition is basically a complete reversal of decades of U.S. economic policy.
The magnitude of this shift is so strong that many American economists are worried that the implementation of such a huge disruptive policy in the short term will inevitably cause great damage to the current economic structure. For example, if tariffs are increased, prices will rise, and the cost will still be borne by American consumers. And rebuilding the entire manufacturing industry is definitely not something that can be completed in three or five years, and the current cost structure of the United States is not suitable for large-scale investment in manufacturing. Since the Obama era, there has been a strong call for manufacturing to return to the United States, but until now it has had little effect, because the United States has high raw material and labor costs, and there is a lack of a large number of experienced industrial workers. For example, the Ford workers' strike is a huge obstacle to the U.S. manufacturing industry. It remains to be seen when Trump's wish will come true.
As for the impact of this policy on China, it is certainly negative, but the impact is not too great. Since the beginning of Trump's last term, the United States has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese products, and the Biden administration has not canceled them. This has also made Chinese companies realize the danger of being highly dependent on the US market, so they have actively explored other overseas markets in the past few years. Our dependence on U.S. foreign trade has been greatly reduced, at least not fatally.
On the other hand, we will never be beaten passively, and we will resolutely fight back when necessary. We've been battling the Americans for years, and we know each other very well. The trump card of rare earths in our hands has not yet been played, and in the field of high-tech we are gradually breaking through the restrictions of the West. If Trump wants to fight a trade war with us, we will be there for it. Trump had better not forget that Biden also left you with a super big mess, and the debt is to be paid.
Of course, Trump's campaign slogan looks bluffing, and whether it can be implemented at that time is another matter, and the situation of the United States itself is not optimistic!