In the three years since the "dual carbon" goal was proposed, the mainland has incorporated the dual carbon work into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction and the overall economic and social development, built and completed the "1+N" policy system of double exploration, and deepened the green and low-carbon transformation in various economic and social fields.
Since the beginning of this year, the mainland has actively and steadily promoted the work related to carbon peak and carbon neutrality, improved the regulation and control of total energy consumption and intensity, accelerated the construction of a unified and standardized carbon emission statistical accounting system, and promoted the gradual shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions; China has increasingly become a new green engine for the high-quality development of the mainland's economy, actively participated in global climate response and governance, and became an important contributor to improving the global ability to respond to climate change and promoting global carbon emission reduction.
Looking back on the key events in the field of carbon neutrality in the world and continent in the past year, the Beijing News Zero Carbon Research Institute has refined the top ten keywords in the field of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in 2023, marking the work of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and climate change actions in the past year.
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1. Dual-control transformation
Promoting the gradual shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions is the basic management measure to achieve the dual carbon goal, and the institutional guarantee for actively and steadily promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
In July this year, the second meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform deliberated and adopted the "Opinions on Promoting the Gradual Shift from Dual Control of Energy Consumption to Dual Control of Carbon Emissions", emphasizing the need to adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking down, improving the dual control system of energy consumption, optimizing and improving the mode of regulation and control, strengthening the basic capacity building of dual control of carbon emissions, and improving various supporting systems for dual control of carbon emissions; Since carbon emissions involve all aspects of economic and social development, the transformation of dual control also means the upgrading of the concept of green development and management system in the mainland, from "single control" to "system control".
The dual-control transformation will accelerate the improvement of a unified and standardized carbon emission statistical accounting system, and effectively promote the continuous improvement of energy utilization efficiency and the continuous decline of carbon dioxide emission intensity in the mainland. At the same time, the dual-control transformation also means that the consumption of renewable energy will be unlimited, which is conducive to the large-scale development of clean energy.
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2. National carbon market/CCER
The national carbon market is an important institutional innovation that uses market mechanisms to control and reduce carbon emissions and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of economic development mode, and is one of the core policy tools to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been strong calls for the expansion of the national carbon market and the launch of the national CCER market. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has launched special research on the inclusion of the steel, petrochemical and building materials industries in the national carbon market. At present, the preliminary plan for the steel industry to be included in the national carbon market has been completed, and the expansion of the carbon market is imminent.
At the same time, as a key supplement to the national carbon market, the reopening of the national CCER market has accelerated. In October, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) promulgated the Administrative Measures for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (Trial), as well as the methodology of the first batch of four types of CCER projects, and issued supporting policies such as the Registration Rules for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (Trial), the Guidelines for the Design and Implementation of Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Projects, and the Rules for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading and Settlement (Trial), laying the institutional and policy foundation for the launch of the national CCER market.
The expansion of the national carbon market and the resumption of the CCER market are conducive to restricting and encouraging more industries and enterprises to participate in greenhouse gas emission reduction actions, forcing the transformation and upgrading of industrial technology and enterprise production processes, and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the whole society's production mode.
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3. Carbon peak pilot
The goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in mainland China is tight and the task is heavy, and there are large differences in economic development levels and resource endowments between regions.
In October 2021, the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030", which proposed to select 100 typical representative cities and parks to carry out pilot construction of carbon peaking, and provide support to pilot cities and parks in terms of policies, funds, and technology. In November this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "National Carbon Peak Pilot Construction Plan", and launched the first batch of national carbon peak pilot work in 15 provinces across the country, with a total of 35 places. The pilot provinces are basically characterized by high emissions, large populations, abundant resources or intensive energy-consuming industries, covering more than 70% of the mainland's carbon emissions, and are key emission reduction provinces in the process of China's carbon peaking.
At the same time, the pilot areas include not only large traditional energy provinces and provinces with large economic scale, but also large provinces with traditional industries and heavy industries, basically covering different types and different stages of development in the country, which can well reflect the problems and challenges in the process of carbon peaking across the country, and is conducive to exploring and forming a reference experience for carbon peaking.
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4. Renewable energy installation
Energy transition is the most important support for promoting green and low-carbon economic and social development and achieving the "dual carbon" goal. The development of renewable energy is the most important direction of energy transition.
In the first half of this year, as of the first half of 2023, the country's installed renewable energy capacity exceeded 1.3 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 48.8% of the mainland's total installed capacity, surpassing coal power in history and becoming the mainland's "largest power source". As of the beginning of December this year, the installed capacity of renewable energy has exceeded 1.3 billion and 1.4 billion yuan in a row during the year, reaching 1.45 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 50% of the country's total installed power generation capacity and half of the country's total installed capacity. At the same time, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power has exceeded 500 million kilowatts, exceeding the total installed capacity of hydropower, making it the second largest power source in mainland China after coal power.
The expansion of the installed capacity of renewable energy will help increase the supply of green energy in the mainland and fundamentally reduce the mainland's carbon emissions. It is also conducive to the development of renewable energy industry and technology in mainland China, and solves the problem of development and emission reduction.
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5. Export new three kinds
Under the "dual carbon" goal, the development of green and low-carbon industries has ushered in a historic opportunity. Since 2020, China's green and low-carbon industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics have achieved explosive growth, and have become the "new three" of mainland exports.
At present, the mainland has formed the world's most complete photovoltaic industry chain, producing 80% of the world's solar panels, 85% of solar cells and 97% of solar silicon wafers; the production and sales of new energy vehicles rank first in the world, accounting for more than half of the world's ownership; and the export of lithium batteries has maintained a rapid growth trend. In the first half of this year, the total export growth of the "new three" increased by 61.6%, driving the overall export growth by 1.8 percentage points, and the green industry was full of momentum, making an important contribution to promoting the steady growth of the mainland economy and industrial transformation and upgrading.
The large-scale popularization of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other products is not only conducive to promoting green and low-carbon development in the energy and transportation sectors, but also conducive to the green transformation and upgrading of mainland industries, increasing the added value of mainland product exports, and providing more green products for global low-carbon development.
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6. Green hydrogen
As an important part of the country's future energy system, the role of hydrogen energy in building a green, low-carbon and clean energy system in the mainland has been highly valued. With the large-scale deployment of renewable energy, the use of low-cost renewable energy electricity to produce hydrogen has become an outlet.
In June this year, the mainland's first 10,000-ton photovoltaic green hydrogen demonstration project, the Kuqa Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project, successfully produced hydrogen, marking the first time that the mainland realized the industrial application of large-scale photovoltaic power generation direct hydrogen production technology and engineering technology. From January to September this year, 57 green hydrogen projects were put into operation, under construction and declared, with an investment of 300 billion yuan. At the same time, due to the dual attributes of energy and raw materials, green hydrogen has a strong demand for hydrogen energy substitution in the industrial and chemical fields, and the coupling development of green hydrogen has become an important direction of hydrogen energy.
Green hydrogen does not produce carbon emissions during production and use, and is an ideal green energy source for the future. In the future, with the further decline of renewable electricity costs and the maturity of hydrogen production technology, the green hydrogen industry will usher in a greater explosion.
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7. CCUS technology
Low-carbon technologies are an important support for solving the problem of carbon emissions, promoting green and low-carbon transformation in all fields of economy and society, and achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
In its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, the IPCC mentions that the use of CCUS technology to remove carbon is necessary to achieve net-zero emissions and compensate for the net negative emissions required to exceed 1.5°C. Since the beginning of this year, international technology giants such as Amazon and Apple have continued to increase their investment in CCUS technology research and development, and the mainland has also accelerated the application of CCUS technology, with more than 100 CCUS demonstration projects completed or under construction, and initially has the engineering capacity to capture, utilize and store CO2 on a large scale. In November, the latest climate statement between China and the United States mentioned that the two countries will each strive to promote at least five large-scale CCUS cooperation projects in the fields of industry and energy by 2030.
In the future, with the acceleration of the global response to climate change and carbon emission reduction, CCUS technology will accelerate the application penetration of various industries and fields, and become the mainstream carbon-negative technology in the market.
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8、COP28
Addressing global warming and climate challenges is a shared responsibility of all countries in the world. To this end, in 1992, the United Nations adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the world's first international treaty to combat global warming. COP28 is the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
In December 2015, COP21 reached the Paris Agreement, a legally binding agreement on climate change, which proposed to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and strive to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. COP28 will be the first comprehensive stocktaking of the NDCs proposed by countries under the Paris Agreement, urging all parties to increase their NDCs and set stricter energy transition targets to increase the likelihood of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature targets. As emission reduction and energy transition are related to national interests and future industrial development, COP28 has attracted global attention.
For the first time in the history of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, delegates agreed on a global stocktake and a roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels, as well as energy transition goals such as tripling global renewable energy capacity and tripling energy efficiency by 2030. This will have an important impact on the future of climate change response and energy transition in countries around the world.
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9. Carbon tariffs
As the game between countries around the world in carbon emission reduction and green industry competition intensifies, developed countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually begun to set up green trade barriers to protect and strengthen national climate response actions and the climate competitiveness of industries.
In April this year, the Council of the European Union voted to approve the world's first "carbon tariff" - the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and the EU carbon tariff will be implemented from October 1. The EU will impose additional taxes on steel, aluminum, cement and fertilisers imported from abroad. On December 18, the British government officially announced that it will implement the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism from 2027, and the initial product categories include aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen, and steel. Previously, Europe and the United States have successively passed the "EU Battery and Waste Battery Law" and the "Inflation Reduction Act" to restrict the import of foreign green products. For a time, green trade protection has become a hot topic in international climate negotiations and trade.
Carbon tariffs will not only directly affect global cooperation on climate change, but will also have a significant impact on the global industrial structure and trade rules, and will also bring many challenges to the development of China's green industry and the export of related products.
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10. Global boiling/extreme climate
In recent years, extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods have become more frequent around the world, and extreme weather has gradually become the norm.
Since the beginning of this year, global temperatures have continued to break records. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 is expected to be the hottest year on record, with monthly temperature records breaking in June, July, August and September, with September being the hottest month on record globally, with average temperatures 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that climate change is happening, which is scary, and this is only the beginning, the era of global warming is over, and the era of global "boiling" has arrived.
Once global warming breaks through the "climate tipping point", the frequency and intensity of climate disasters will increase significantly, and will continue to threaten human health, ecosystems and other aspects. The global boiling is a warning that humanity is facing an impending climate crisis.
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Ren Daming, researcher at the Beijing News Zero Carbon Research Institute
Edited by Tao Ye and proofread by Lu Qian