Following the major state-owned banks cutting the deposit interest rates of various maturities last week, joint-stock banks have also followed suit since this week. In the context of the year-end deposit interest rate cut, the first financial reporter noticed that the financial management methods recommended by banks to customers have also changed. Different from the "explosion" of characteristic deposits under the previous deposit rate cut, this time, increased whole life insurance, dividend insurance, fixed income wealth management, savings treasury bonds, and gold wealth management products are recommended. The reporter learned from the resident side that investors who allocate assets through banking channels pay more attention to the safety attributes of investment products and prefer wealth management products with stable income characteristics. According to industry insiders, under the downward trend of deposit interest rates, "deposit moving" will become a long-term trend.
New changes in financial management
Since December 22, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Bank of China, and the Agricultural Bank of China have successively issued announcements saying that they will reduce the listed interest rate of fixed deposits and withdrawals from that day. This week, more than 10 joint-stock banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China CITIC Bank, Huaxia Bank, Minsheng Bank, Guangfa Bank, Ping An Bank, and Zheshang Bank, have also announced the adjustment of the listed interest rate of RMB deposits.
Generally speaking, the listed interest rates for three-month, six-month and one-year time deposits were lowered by 10 basis points, the two-year listed interest rates were reduced by 20 basis points, and the three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates were reduced by 25 basis points. Due to the different interest rate performance of each bank, the listed interest rate after the cut will also be different.
In this context, the financial management methods recommended by banks to customers have also changed. When the first financial reporter visited a number of state-owned banks and joint-stock bank outlets as an investor, the most recommended products were life insurance dividend insurance and fixed-income wealth management products, and some financial managers also recommended gold-linked products. The previously hot bank fixed deposit products are "cold".
"Recommend this whole life insurance (participating) product. A financial manager of a joint-stock bank told the first financial reporter that the income is stable and considerable, and investors who pay attention to medium and long-term planning can choose this life insurance product. The above-mentioned financial manager said that after the overall reduction of the scheduled interest rate this year, the current pricing interest rate of ordinary life insurance can reach up to 2.5%, the pricing interest rate of participating insurance can reach 2.5%, and the guaranteed interest rate of universal insurance can reach up to 2%, which is generally higher than the interest rate of time deposit products in the same period.
When the reporter puts forward a short-term demand for funds, financial managers generally recommend fixed-income closed-end wealth management products with a term of about one year, and the performance benchmark is roughly in the range of 3.5%~3.8%. At the same time, in the context of rising gold prices this year, some financial managers recommended "fixed deposit" products to reporters on the grounds of "being able to get fixed deposit interest". Take Bank of Ningbo's "fixed deposit" product as an example, the product has a minimum deposit of 10 grams, and the longer the deposit period, the higher the yield. The bank's financial manager told reporters.
The reporter noticed that the special deposit products that became "hot" during the year had been withdrawn one after another. As early as November 25, Bank of Communications announced that it would completely shut down the "Super Deposit" special deposit product from December 1. Tianjin Binhai Rural Commercial Bank also announced that from December 15, the personal "fixed pass" and "profit increase" deposit business will cease to operate. "Previously, the 3-year interest rate of our bank's 'special deposit' product could be as high as 2.6%, and the interest rate of the 2-year fixed deposit exclusive to potential customers could also reach 2.1%. A financial manager of a large bank explained to reporters.
From the perspective of residents, in the context of large fluctuations in the equity market this year, they prefer low-volatility and stable wealth management products. Hu, who originally had a three-year deposit fixed product in China Merchants Bank, happened to have this fixed deposit when it expired and was ready to withdraw the money before making a choice. "There is a deposit of 500,000 yuan that has expired, and unfortunately it is unfortunate to catch up with this wave of deposit interest rate cuts, and I hope to find some low-risk products for investment after taking it out. Hu told reporters.
Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, told reporters that in the context of the marketization of deposit interest rates and the pressure on the management of bank debt costs, there is a possibility that the deposit listing interest rate will be further lowered next year. With the continuous enrichment of various products in the financial market, "deposit moving" is an inevitable trend, and the deposit interest rate cut will accelerate this process to a certain extent.
In the view of He Yurui, a researcher at Puyi Standard, after the deposit interest rate is lowered, due to the search for higher returns, there may be a phenomenon of deposits "moving" to wealth management products, which will promote the growth of scale. Based on the current situation of low risk appetite of residents, fixed-income wealth management is still likely to be favored, among which products with fewer investment in deposit products with relatively high yields and stable yields will benefit the most.
Be aware of the risk of "deposit moving".
In the view of industry insiders, for residents, they should be aware that wealth management products are different from deposits, and there is a risk of principal loss, and they need to abandon the idea of "just redeeming" in the past and face up to the fluctuations in the income of wealth management products.
Ming Ming told reporters that residents should first accurately recognize their own risk appetite and income needs, choose products that meet their own risk level, high returns are inevitably accompanied by high risks, can not pursue capital preservation while pursuing high returns, can be a reasonable division of personal assets, part of the funds to earn stable income, part of the funds game higher returns, through investment diversification to diversify the risk at the same time, to achieve wealth appreciation.
From the perspective of the insurance products first recommended by wealth managers, this type of product has the characteristics of locking in long-term and stable returns, but there are also certain risks. An insurance practitioner told reporters that although it is possible that many people will come to buy savings insurance products, if the investment income behind the product does not meet expectations, this kind of long-term yield locking product will have a great impact on the future of insurance companies. Ge Yuxiang, a non-bank financial analyst at Soochow Securities, reminded that the interest rate cut by the state-owned banks has a significant effect on reducing the cost of the debt side in 2024, and it also opens up the space for the LPR to decline at the beginning of next year. If the LPR continues to be lowered in the future, it may open the possibility of further reduction in the scheduled interest rate of life insurance products with a maturity of more than one year in 2024.
Recently, many wealth management subsidiaries have lowered their performance comparison standards, and Dong Dannong, a researcher at Puyi Standard, told reporters that in the context of the era of net worth, wealth management companies will adjust the performance benchmark according to market conditions to trim investor expectations. Since the beginning of this year, the yield of the bond market has shown a downward trend, which will affect the income performance of the product to a certain extent, so wealth management companies choose to reduce the performance benchmark by lowering the performance benchmark to match the actual performance of the product and reduce investors' expectations of investment returns.
There are also concerns about the risks associated with rising gold products. Yu Huifeng, a special researcher at China's financial think tank, said that on the one hand, the reduction of deposit interest rates will increase investors' interest in gold investment, because gold is a substitute for deposits. On the other hand, the reduction in deposit rates will also stimulate consumption, which in turn will drive the growth of the gold consumer market. Industry insiders suggest that gold prices are affected by a variety of factors, such as supply and demand, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates, etc., and investors should pay close attention to these factors in order to better grasp the fluctuating trend of gold prices. At the same time, investors should also understand the trading rules and trading hours of the gold market in order to make investment decisions in a timely manner.
Ming Ming told reporters that in the long run, the reduction of deposit interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of depositors, considering that depositors often have higher security requirements for the funds that originally belonged to deposits, so from a medium and long-term perspective, it is expected that "deposit moving" will make low-risk asset management products such as bank wealth management usher in incremental funds. It is noted that there is a certain negative correlation between the month-on-month growth rate of the deposit scale and the wealth management scale, indicating that some depositors will turn their attention to low-risk asset management products such as bank wealth management after "moving their deposits". Bond funds and hybrid funds may also see some incremental funding.
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