After the long weekend on Christmas, U.S. stocks got off to a good start in the last week of 2023, with the S&P 500 continuing to approach its all-time highs set nearly two years ago, and energy stocks benefiting from rising crude oil led the rally.
This week's data is thin. The S&P/Case Shiller S&P/CS home price index for October released before the U.S. stock market on Tuesday rose for nine consecutive months to a record high. Some commentators pointed out that the U.S. stock market is expected to usher in the so-called Santa Claus rally at the end of the year. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, since 1969, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 1.3% during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January.
Popular Chinese concept stocks rebounded strongly overall, outperforming the market. On Monday, after the number of new game versions in China was announced to exceed 100 for the first time, which was called a positive signal to support the healthy development of the online game industry, NetEase and other game stocks that fell sharply after China released the draft of the new regulations on online games last week, rebounded strongly and got rid of it;
U.S. Treasuries were mixed intraday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note eventually edged higher but turned lower during the session, while the yield on the interest-rate sensitive two-year Treasury note generally recovered. The U.S. stock market announced a strong demand for $57 billion two-year U.S. Treasury bonds at midday, and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield in the secondary market gave up some of the gains in the short term, still not close to the six-month low set after the Fed's meeting. The Fed's expectations for next year remain high. Traders are pricing in a more than 90% chance of a rate cut in March next year, with a total of nearly 160 basis points for the year, more than double the level of rate cuts expected after the Fed's meeting nearly two weeks ago, according to swap contract pricing on Tuesday.
The U.S. dollar index lost an intraday rally, close to the nearly five-month low after Friday's announcement that core PCE inflation slowed more than expected; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hawked on Monday, saying that the "clearest signs" of the pivot had appeared, and the yen still turned lower intraday, falling from the high set in more than four months after the Fed meeting; most other non-U.S. currencies rose intraday, and the offshore yuan fell from a more than a week low after falling below 7.16 on Friday, once recovering 7.14.
Among the bulk commodities, international crude oil, which has fallen for several days, rebounded, rising more than 3% intraday, and is set to hit a new high since the end of November. Signs of tension in the Middle East geopolitical conflict again: Britain's Office of Maritime Trade Operations said Tuesday that two explosions occurred over the Red Sea near Yemen, and IDF Chief of Staff Hezi Al-Halevi said on the same day that military operations in the Gaza Strip would continue for months, CCTV reported.
The S&P Dow is approaching a record high, Intel-led chip stocks outperform the market, and the Chinese concept stock index rises more than 1%
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened collectively higher and have maintained gains since then. The Nasdaq Composite rose more than 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 230 points, and the S&P 500 rose more than 0.6% when the day high was updated at the end of the session. In the end, the three major indexes, which had risen for eight consecutive weeks as of last week, collectively closed higher, and the S&P and Nasdaq rose for three consecutive trading days.
The Dow, which closed slightly lower on Friday, closed up 159.36 points, or 0.43%, at 37,545.33, approaching its all-time high closing record for five consecutive days on Tuesday. The S&P closed up 0.42% at 4,774.75, updating the previous Jan. 4 closing high set last Tuesday and continuing to approach the all-time high of Jan. 3 last year. The Nasdaq closed up 0.54% at 15,074.57, updating its highest closing level set last Tuesday since Jan. 12 last year.
The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed up 1.24% in early trading, outperforming the broader market, rising for three consecutive days and refreshing its closing high since April last year for two consecutive days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed up 0.6%, updating its all-time closing high set on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the technology constituents of the Nasdaq 100 index, also closed up 0.6%, closing at a record high for two consecutive days, both rising for three consecutive days.
The major sectors of the S&P 500 closed higher across the board, led by energy up nearly 0.9% driven by higher crude oil, real estate up nearly 0.8%, industrials up more than 0.7%, and communication services and healthcare rose more than 0.2%.
Leading technology stocks mostly rose. Tesla rose nearly 2% at midday to close up 1.6%, erasing Friday's decline and approaching the highest closing level set last Tuesday since Oct. 12. Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, Netflix, which fell back last Friday, closed up 0.9%; Facebook's parent company Meta closed up 0.4%, refreshing the all-time high set last Thursday; Google's parent company Alphabet closed slightly higher, rising for seven consecutive trading days, continuing to refresh its high since March last year; Microsoft closed slightly higher, rising for three consecutive days to stabilize its high since November 30; Amazon, which fell from its all-time high closing on Friday, closed slightly lower. Apple closed down nearly 0.3%, falling for four consecutive days to its lowest level since Dec. 6 after the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that it would not overturn the October International Trade Commission's (ITC) ban on the sale of Apple's smartwatches in the United States.
Chip stocks generally rose for three consecutive trading days, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closing up about 1.8%, outperforming the market and both refreshed their closing all-time highs. Among individual stocks, after Israel approved its investment of $25 billion to build a chip factory in the country and provided subsidies of $3.2 billion, Intel closed up more than 5%, and by the close, AMD rose nearly 3%, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, and Arm rose more than 1%, Nvidia rose 0.9%, and Micron Technology rose nearly 0.7%.
AI概念股多数反弹。 收盘时，C3.ai（AI）涨2.5%，结束三连跌， 早盘BigBear.ai（BBAI）涨超6%，SoundHound.ai（SOUN）涨2.9%，，Palantir（PLTR）涨1.5%，而Adobe（ADBE）跌不足0.1%。
Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks, which generally fell last Friday, rebounded. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up more than 1%. Chinese ETF KWEB closed up 0.9%, while CQQQ fell less than 0.1%. Among the stocks operating in the online game business, NetEase rose about 7.8% in early trading and closed up 5.2%, Tencent Pink Single, which had risen more than 4% in early trading, closed up nearly 3.5%, and Station B, which had risen more than 3% in early trading, closed up 2%. Among the three new automakers, NIO, which unveiled its new model ET9 last weekend, closed up 10.8%, Xpeng Motors, which had risen more than 4% in early trading, closed up 1.6%, and Li Auto, which had risen 7.6% at the beginning of the session, closed up 3.8%. Among other stocks, by the close, after AstraZeneca announced plans to acquire as much as $1.2 billion in value, Gracell Biotech (GRCL) rose about 60.3%, Gaotu Education rose nearly 7%, New Oriental rose more than 2%, Alibaba rose nearly 0.8%, Pinduoduo rose 0.5%, JD.com rose less than 0.1%, and Baidu turned lower in early trading, closing down less than 0.1%.
Among the more volatile stocks, Bristol-Myers Squibb closed up about 100.9% after Bristol-Myers Squibb reached a cash purchase agreement of $62.50 per share, a premium of more than 100% from Friday's close, and Rayzebio (RYZB), a biotechnology company that develops radiopharmaceuticals to treat cancer, closed up about 100.9% and received an initial takeover offer of $16.5 per share from 3D printing materials supplier Nano Dimension, a nearly 26% premium to Friday's close After 3D printing solutions company Stratasys (SSYS) closed up 13%, Hollysys Automation (HOLI) closed up 5.2% in early trading after a consortium led by Hong Kong's Taizheng Group announced a $1.8 billion cash acquisition, and British Premier League giant Manchester United (MANU) rose 5% in early trading to close up 3.4% after Jim Ratcliffe, Britain's richest man, agreed to buy a 25% stake in Manchester United for $1.3 billion and acquired the club's operation and management rights.
European stocks remain closed on Tuesday.
The two-year Treasury yield has generally rebounded after the announcement of strong bidding demand, and it has fallen in the short term
The European bond market continued to be closed on Tuesday.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond fell below 3.88% before the European stock market to refresh the daily low, and then continued to rise, the U.S. stock market regained 3.90% before the day was close to 3.91% to refresh the daily high, up more than 1 basis point in the day, the U.S. stock market gave up the rise at noon, once close to 3.88%, but it was not close to the intraday low since July 27, which broke 3.83% last Thursday, and the U.S. stock market rebounded at the end of the bond market, about 3.90% at the end of the bond market, rising less than 1 basis point in the day, and rose slightly for two consecutive trading days.
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, broke through 4.33% in early Asian trading to refresh the daily low, and the U.S. stock market had risen 4.38% to refresh the daily high, rising nearly 6 basis points in the day, away from the half-year low of 4.28% on December 14, the day after the Fed meeting, and the yield quickly fell by 2 basis points in the short term, near 4.33%, after the announcement of the strong demand for 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds in midday, the yield quickly fell by 2 basis points in the short term, near 4.33%, and then the rise expanded, to about 4.35% at the end of the bond market , up about 3 basis points on the day, rebounded after falling back on Friday.
The U.S. dollar index approached a five-month low, and the offshore yuan once regained 7.14 intraday, up more than 100 points
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies such as the U.S. dollar against the euro, turned up before the European stock market, and even stocks approached 101.80 to refresh the daily high, up less than 0.1% during the day, and then continued to fall, before the U.S. stock market opened, the U.S. stock market fell below 101.50 at midday, approaching the intraday low since July 28, which was refreshed last Friday, and fell more than 0.2% during the day.
By the close of trading on Tuesday, the dollar index was below 101.50, down more than 0.2% on the day, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the greenback against 10 other currencies, fell more than 0.2%, the lowest level since July 26, and the dollar index fell for three consecutive sessions.
Among the non-U.S. currencies, the yen turned down intraday, falling for two consecutive days, the dollar fell to 142.10 in early Asian trading to refresh the daily low, the U.S. stock market completely got rid of the decline in early trading, and rose above 142.60 to refresh the daily high, up nearly 0.2% in the day, continuing to break away from the Fed meeting on December 14, the next day fell below 141.00 to the lowest level since July 31; GBP/USD tested 1.2730 in late U.S. trading, up nearly 0.3% on the day, and is still not close to the high since August 22 that rose to 1.2800 on December 14.
The offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar fell below 7.15 to refresh the daily low of 7.1530 before the European stock market, and then turned up more than once, and the U.S. stock market rose above 7.14 to refresh the daily high of 7.1388, up 142 points from the daily low, from the intraday low since December 13 after falling below 7.16 on Friday. At 5:59 on December 27, Beijing time, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.1423 yuan against the US dollar, up 48 points from the end of New York on Monday, and rebounded after retreating on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $43,700 in early Asian trading, and then continued to fall, and the U.S. stock fell below $41,700 after falling below $42,000 at midday, refreshing the low since December 18, down more than $2,100 or nearly 5% from the daily high, and the U.S. stock market hovered at $42,300 at the close, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours.
Crude oil rebounded to hit a new high this month, up more than 3% intraday
International crude oil futures rose intraday. After the European stock market turned down slightly before the day, the European market refreshed the daily low at the beginning of the day, the United States WTI crude oil fell to $73.13, down nearly 0.6% during the day, Brent crude oil fell below $78.80, down nearly 0.4% during the day, European stocks continued to rise after the intraday rally, when the U.S. stock market refreshed the daily high, the U.S. oil was close to $76.20, up nearly 3.6% during the day, and the cloth oil rose above $81.70, up nearly 3.4% during the day.
In the end, crude oil, which had fallen for two consecutive days, closed higher. WTI crude futures for February delivery closed up 2.73% at $75.57 a barrel, while Brent crude futures for February delivery closed up 2.53% at $81.07 a barrel, both updating Wednesday's closing high since Nov. 30.
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures continue to be mixed. NYMEX January gasoline futures, which fell for two days, closed up 1.3% at $2.1583 a gallon, out of the low level since the dollar closed on December 14 on Friday, while NYMEX January natural gas futures for the second day closed down 2.3% at $2.5500/MMBtu, down from the high since December 5, which was refreshed on Friday.
Gold barely rose for the third time in a row and continued to hit a new high for more than three weeks
London base metals futures remain closed on Tuesday.
New York gold futures fell to $2065.1 in early Asian trading to refresh the daily low, down nearly 0.2% in the day, and turned up in early trading, European stocks rose to $2076 above the daily high before the market, up more than 0.3% in the day, and U.S. stocks turned down more than once in early trading.
Spot gold was close to $2,065.20 in early Asian trading, up nearly 0.6% during the day, and U.S. stocks erased all gains at the beginning of the session, and did not come close to the intraday high since December 4, after rising above $2,070 on Friday.
In the end, COMEX February gold futures closed up 0.03% at $2,069.8 an ounce, closing up for three consecutive trading days, refreshing the closing high since December 1 for two consecutive days, and continuing to approach the closing record high set by $2,090 on December 1.
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