Source: Global Times
In the past few days, news related to cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing has been coming out. "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported on the 25th that the nanoimprint technology of Japan's Canon is expected to manufacture 2-nanometer semiconductors. On the 21st local time, ASML of the Netherlands, the world's largest lithography machine manufacturer, shipped the world's first new high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography machine (High NA EUV) to Intel Corporation of the United States. The battle for cutting-edge chip-making equipment has officially begun, and the fierce competition among global chipmakers has added new variables.
On January 5, 2022 local time, in Berlin, Germany, the lithography machine giant ASML manufacturing plant in the Netherlands. (Photo source: Visual China)
2 nanometer manufacturing equipment is coming
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Kazutoku Iwamoto, director of Canon's semiconductor machine business, introduced a device equipped with its own "nanoimprint" technology, which is expected to be able to manufacture 2-nanometer semiconductors. According to the report, unlike the use of strong light to burn circuits on wafers, nanoimprint can emboss the original like a stamp, and due to its low cost and low power consumption, it is "highly anticipated by semiconductor manufacturers".
This follows ASML announcing on the social media platform X that they have delivered the first new High NA EUV to Intel Corporation. Reuters reported that the high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography machines cost more than $300 million each, are larger than trucks, and are expected to be used in commercial chip manufacturing from 2026 or 2027 onwards, which can produce "smaller and faster semiconductors".
Luo Guozhao, a semiconductor expert and editor-in-chief of CHIP Qipu Technology, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 25th that high numerical aperture is a future-oriented technology and is very critical in the technological development of lithography machines. It breaks through the technical limitations of the existing system of lithography machines, and can achieve 2nm and even more advanced chip production on lithography machines. The introduction of this technology will continue to extend the life cycle of silicon-based chips, which were previously widely expected to end in the 2nm era and more advanced chips to move to photonic or carbon-based. This technology will effectively extend the life cycle of EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) light source technology, continue to reduce the urgency of etching light wavelengths, and rely on high numerical aperture technology to achieve the production of chips with 2nm process and above on existing light source technologies in the future.
Grab the key machines
2-nanometer chips have become the latest "battleground" for chipmakers around the world. Intel has previously said that it will mass produce 2nm chips in 2025, and recently announced that it will advance this schedule to 2024, Samsung is expected to start production of 2nm chips in 2025, and TSMC is expected to start mass production of 2nm chips in 2025.
Luo Guozhao said that with the launch of ASML's new lithography machine, the already fierce "three-way war" will become more confusing, and the picture will be more "fun". Reuters reported that Intel ordered the first High NA EUV in 2022, and chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron also ordered the lithography machine from ASML.
Taiwan's "Economic Daily" reported that when TSMC, Samsung, and Intel were competing in the 2nm advanced process, a new wave of "key machine wars" started simultaneously. ASML plans to produce 10 High NA EUVs next year, Intel grabbed 6 units, temporarily leading, and Samsung is trying its best to win over ASML, which has put pressure on TSMC.
Some analysts believe that ASML launched this new technology to help chip manufacturers such as Intel and TSMC overcome chip manufacturing technology at 2nm and below nodes, while allowing the entire chip industry to maintain its dependence on its high-end lithography machines. ASML's High NA EUV is the only option for producing the most advanced chips, and Intel, as the first customer to receive the lithography machine, "can finally dream of beating the competition again," according to an analysis by the European IT information website.
Robert Mayer, an analyst at Semiconductor Advisors, a semiconductor consultancy, said that nanoimprint technology is a "non-existent alternative" that the chip industry has been looking for, and that Canon has been exploring nanoimprint technology for many years, but has never really made a major breakthrough. Techniques such as directional self-assembly (DSA) and nanoimprint, which have been discussed a lot and are thought to be "snatched from ASML's mouth", cannot replace lithography at present.
"A new starting point that can go hand in hand"
Luo Guozhao told reporters that TSMC is currently in a leading position, with advanced process chips such as 3nm, 4nm and 5nm accounting for the majority of its revenue, monopolizing the global foundry share. Therefore, on the issue of introducing ASML's latest lithography machine, TSMC is actually not the most anxious. Fully tap the existing market and then transition to 2nm in line with TSMC's principle of maximizing interests.
After entering 10nm, Intel has been slow to develop in the technology process, and TSMC's breakthroughs in 7nm and 5nm have forced it to put forward a plan of "five process nodes in four years". After successive breakthroughs in Intel 7 (10nm process), Intel 4 (7nm process), and Intel 3 (4nm process) in recent years, follow-up technologies such as Intel 20A and 18A are advancing very fast. Luo Guozhao said that Intel took the lead in introducing new machines this time, which is conducive to the commercialization of Intel 20A (equivalent 2nm process) chips in 2025, so as to catch up with or even surpass TSMC at the time point.
However, some industry analysts believe that the expenditure on the purchase of 6 High NA EUVs is as high as 2.1 billion to 2.4 billion US dollars, which is a very big bet for Intel, and if it is not desperate, Intel will lag behind TSMC. The analysis believes that if you are lucky, the best case scenario is that Intel can be "on an equal footing" with TSMC.
Techzine, a European technology website, reported that Intel's own product itself is an attractive AI product, and its lucrative contracts with companies such as Nvidia will "create a very ideal situation" for Intel.
As for Samsung, Luo Guozhao said that the company's biggest and most realistic problem is not in technology, but in gaining the trust of global customers - how to gain a certain market share and how to gain a firm foothold is Samsung's top priority. However, the emergence of ASML's new machine provides a new starting point for the three chipmakers, which were already fiercely competitive, and it seems that all the competition can be "restarted" on this new platform.