December 23, 2023 On December 21, 2023 local time, ASML, a major Dutch lithography machine manufacturer, announced through the social media X platform that its first High-NA EUV lithography machine (referred to as the second-generation lithography machine) is being loaded and shipped from the headquarters in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, and will be delivered to Intel.
A few days ago, it was reported that the lithography machine giant ASML is expected to mass produce 10 second-generation EUV lithography machines next year, of which 6 have been determined to be won by the American chip company Intel, and the remaining four will be competed by Samsung and TSMC, so that the United States, which gets more second-generation EUV lithography machines, is expected to take the lead in mass production of 2 nanometers, surpassing TSMC.
It is said that this new generation of lithography machines needs more than 5,000 companies around the world to cooperate with each other to produce, so it is expected that only 10 units can be produced next year, and then it can only be increased to 20 units per year!
Now looking back at a few years ago, the United States asked TSMC to hand over confidential data, and then asked TSMC and Samsung to build factories in the United States, and told them that there would be a $52 billion chip subsidy at that time, okay, now they are really going to build factories, the United States promised chip subsidies, and in the end only gave TSMC 10%, and Samsung got 13% , more than seventy percent of the chip subsidies were given to Intel and Micron in the United States, etc., and then the chip subsidy details were given, requiring the sharing of technology profits, etc., isn't this a disguised prompt for TSMC and Samsung to abandon subsidies?
Obviously, I overestimated TSMC's IQ, I didn't expect them to be stupid like this, and now it seems that the core technology has been handed over to the United States, why do you say that, Intel has encountered huge difficulties in the research and development of 10nm and 7nm processes after the mass production of the 14nm process, and it took 9 years to delay mass production, and the Intel 7nm process has been considered by the industry to be equivalent to TSMC's 4nm process in recent years, is this all a coincidence? Even if TSMC doesn't want to hand over the core technology, but when it decides to move the factory to the United States, these things are actually predictable, and the core technology is put in people's homes, so isn't it a matter of time before the leak is leaked?
Intel will acquire 6 of the 10 second-generation EUV lithography technology next year, and with more advanced lithography machines, Intel is likely to mass produce 2nm in 2025, one year ahead of TSMC, to achieve a technological lead.
The problem is that TSMC has been very difficult this year, the demand of the entire semiconductor industry has declined, and the downstream mobile phone manufacturers are more difficult than one another, and nearly 5% of TSMC's hundreds of billions of supply chain orders have been cut, which directly leads to TSMC's huge R&D investment, and there is no market demand to digest, which is almost equivalent to a waste.
According to Taiwanese media reports, in the first five months of this year alone, TSMC's loss has exceeded 150 billion, and its market value has nearly halved.
Then there was no way to say that the most advanced processes such as 2nm, 3nm and the newly released 1.4nm would be left on the island, and the strategy of deep cultivation in Taiwan would not change.
Liu Deyin, chairman of TSMC, also stressed that TSMC should help stabilize Sino-US relations and play an important role in improving Sino-US relations. Hehe! It's about to be looted by the United States, and you want to think of the mainland again?
For Biden, this is a real political achievement, a "investment promotion" earned from beginning to end. For Nanako, this is a vote, and I guess her big house in the United States has already been prepared after her "retirement". As long as she can call a perfect curtain call and fight to the last Taiwanese, her task will be completed. For the people of Taiwan, it is really a matter of hollowing out their families, but in addition to scolding a few sentences, they are powerless to return to the sky!
For me, the short-term impact is not big, but no matter how you look at it, it is a "loss of state-owned assets", which is not a good thing.