A. Market Views
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity improved. The Fed has signaled that its tightening cycle is over and has opened the door to a 24-year rate cut. Considering that '24 is also an election year, the market is likely to see a more accommodative and dovish monetary policy environment. The market expects a more than 70% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates for the first time in March next year, with three overall rate cuts of about 75 basis points. The U.S. dollar index was lower, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit a new half-year low, creating a positive environment for risk assets. U.S. stocks continued to rise near all-time highs, and the crypto market was in a sideways move.
Second, the whole market
Top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
This week, BTC fluctuated upward, and the excessive leverage was removed in the pullback. Investors profit from BTC and move to riskier assets. The market hotspots revolve around the inscription of the BTC ecosystem and the Depin of the Solana ecosystem, which is similar to the hype of ICO and Player Cloud in 2017.
1. COQ: It is the meme leader on the Avax chain. This round of Sol chain attracted a large number of user funds through meme coins and airdrops, and Avax and other chains began to imitate the gourd. 2. MOBILE: It is the leader of this round of Depin track, and the vast majority of Depin projects are currently concentrated on the Sol chain, mainly due to its high efficiency and cheapness. Mobile is a sub-coin of Helium, and the economic model of the mobile phone card business is similar to Filcoin, and the current mining payback cycle is only 2 days, attracting a large number of hype users and studios. 3. MUBI: is the inscription of the Brc20 ecosystem, whose main function is to provide cross-chain bridge services for BTC and ETH, which has risen 10 times in the past two weeks.
3. BTC market
1) On-chain data
Due to the rise of the inscription token standard, the BTC hash, an indicator of miner profitability, has risen again. The BRC20 token has a market cap of more than $3 billion, which is only 0.3% of BTC's market cap.
The market capitalization of stablecoins rose 1%. October was a pivotal month, as the total stablecoin supply bottomed out at $120 billion and then grew at a monthly rate of 3%. This is the first expansion in the stablecoin supply since March '22 and could be a sign of a return in investor interest. USDT became the largest stablecoin, accounting for 73% of the market share.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range, and when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below key level 1 and holders were in the red overall. The current indicator is at 1.58 and is entering the recovery phase.
Institutional crypto investment products have recently started net outflows for the first time, ending an 11-week streak of net inflows. The risk of the market gradually increases in the later stage.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: The rate has risen sharply to 0.015% this week, and the market sentiment is on the high side. The market began to adjust after BTC rates hit their highest rate of the year on November 12. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, which is the short-term top of the market with more long leverage, and the rate is -0.1-0%, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures Holdings: The total BTC holdings rose slightly this week, basically keeping pace with price fluctuations.
Futures long/short ratio: 1.0. Retail investors are in a normal mood. Retail sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator, with panic below 0.7 and greed above 2.0. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
3) Spot market
BTC continues to rise after consolidation and is expected to rise to the 48,000 pressure level. Institutional funds began to be withdrawn while fighting, and the market structure deteriorated. The old currency is rising, the earth dog is flying, or the last round of retail FOMO market. After this round of rise, the overall market in January is not optimistic, and it is recommended to prepare for both in advance.
B. Market Data
1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain
2. The proportion of TVL of each public chain
This week, TVL as a whole fell by $170 million, or about 0.3%. After a healthy pullback, Bitcoin is once again poised to break through the 45,000 mark. TVL rose and fell this week, with ETH chain down 3%, BSC chain up 3%, ARB chain and OP chain falling slightly, Base chain up 14%, the number of protocols reaching 200, and Solana chain up nearly 50% this week, up 126% in the past month. The top 10 mainstream public chains TVL have all risen in the past month, and the market hotspots continue to continue, and the market has a good future.
3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol
1) ETH lock-up amount
2) BSC lock-up amount
3) Polygon lock-up amount
4)Arbitrum锁仓量情况
5) Optimism锁仓量情况
6) Base lock-up amount
7) Solana锁仓量情况
4. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT market situation
3) The share of NFT trading market
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of the top blue-chip projects continued to pull back slightly, but it did not erase the sharp increase in the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the past month. MAYC rose less than 1%, BAYC both fell around 4%, Pudgy Peguin fell 3%, DeGods fell 9%, and Azuki fell 7%. Although the floor price of blue-chip projects has fallen in the past week, the NFT market trading volume has continued to rise in the past week, and the usecase of NFT in the two tracks of GameFi and SocialFi will gradually increase in the future bull market. Whether the NFT track will further increase its weight in the web3 industry is worth looking forward to.