Many fund managers who are "comfortable" during the year with hot themes spit out their annual results at the last minute, which may mean that there is an opportunity for market changes.
As the curtain of the market in 2023 is about to fall, the recent reappearance of "mixed doubles" between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has undoubtedly made many investors anxious about the New Year's Eve investment strategy. However, many fund managers believe that the current market has the characteristics of the last decline of structural varieties, or it may be related to the cross-year adjustment of public offering institutions to cash in strong stocks. Considering that there is still a possibility of a small bull market in the A-share market in 2024, high-quality and cheap chips should be locked in at a critical time, and some fund managers even expect that there may be a bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2024.
The wave of theme stocks is over, and many funds spit out their annual results at the end of the day
The strength of theme stocks is seen as a significant feature of the weak situation in the stock market, and the signal of the market's return is even more obvious.
Under the cover of the envisioned "year-end" market, the "mixed doubles" phenomenon of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks last week caused many fund managers to hand over their annual earnings at the last moment.
As of the beginning of December this year, a public offering product of a northern fund company had an annual positive return of 13%. According to the fund's product disclosure, all of its positive returns were concentrated in the first quarter of this year, and despite the net loss in the second and third quarters, the product still ensured a performance of 13% of its annual net value in the market rally in early December. However, last week's adjustment of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks made the fund hand over its annual returns, with a sharp drawdown in its weekly net value, and its annual returns changed from positive 13% to a loss of nearly 4%.
In terms of Hong Kong stock theme fund products, it is not uncommon for fund managers to fall short at the last minute at the end of the year. A Hong Kong stock theme fund product of a fund company in South China caused a sharp adjustment in the stock price of the relevant game leader due to the collapse of game stocks last week, especially the unexpected decline of game stocks represented by Tencent Holdings and Bilibili at the "bottom", which made the original annual profit of 10% of the Hong Kong stock theme fund product on the verge of loss in an instant.
Last week's unexpected market correction also put to the test the "three-year long-term performance" that fund managers cherish. Brokerage China reporters noticed that although many fund managers have performed sluggishly this year and have suffered a large loss in net value, there are still considerable positive returns in the three-year performance, and the "three-year performance" is considered to be the "long-distance running ability" of the fund manager, but the recent repeated market competition has also caused problems with the "long-distance performance" cherished by many fund managers. Taking a public offering product in Shanghai as an example, the performance of the product in the last three years had a positive return of 5% at the beginning of this month, but due to the changes in the market last week, the long-term performance of the related fund product instantly turned from profit to loss, and the psychological test of long-distance performance loss for fund managers may be far greater than the performance test in 2023.
New Year's Eve rebalancing or pointing to the over-falling track
Industry insiders believe that the positive side is that the adjustment of the A-share market at the last moment at the end of the year may also indicate that new opportunities are coming.
"The recent market correction is largely due to the decline of strong stocks in the hot track, which can be explained to some extent by the fact that institutional positions may be inclined to deploy non-popular tracks that have fallen through in the new year. ”
A fund manager in South China believes that the logic of market changes can largely observe the performance of strong stocks in a weak market, when the strong stocks held by such institutions have a large decline, especially considering that they are currently in the critical period of cross-year position optimization, they tend to judge that public funds may be optimizing their positions, and lay out varieties of unpopular tracks in the market such as consumption and lithium batteries to capture the opportunities in 2024.
Brokerage China reporters also noticed that at the time of year-end adjustment of popular tracks with intensive holdings in games, digital economy, military industry and other funds, relatively unpopular tracks such as consumption, lithium batteries, and chemical materials performed strongly in the market. Among them, the PEEK sector in the chemical materials track is a highlight moment in the A-share market, and continued to attract funds last week, and some fund managers have also reaped unexpected joy because of the heavy position layout in PEEK materials;
CEIBS believes that as the timing of further economic improvement is still uncertain, it is more conducive to the balanced allocation of cyclical and defensive sectors. In the near future, we can focus on the following types of industries: first, cyclical industries with historically low valuations and highly sensitive to economic recovery, which are also more popular in the context of lower interest rates, secondly, optional consumer goods and pharmaceuticals with higher margin of safety after a sharp adjustment, especially consumer goods companies with overseas market development capabilities, and third, cyclical industries with upward inflection point characteristics, such as semiconductors and electronics, and new energy in the technology sector, which have a cost-effective valuation.
The start of the bull market is imminent, and the fund will switch high-quality chips next year
Considering that the current market is at the point of New Year's Eve layout, some fund managers emphasize that A-shares will be the starting point of a new round of bull market in 2024, and the Hong Kong stock market may even bottom out and rebound before A-shares. Fund managers who hold this judgment also believe that the core of the A-share market in 2024 will be performance stocks rather than hot concepts.
Morgan Stanley Fund people said that the growth rate of industrial added value and the growth rate of social zero in November this year were positive, and despite the low base factor, it can still be seen that the supply and demand in some areas are good. The A-share market's response to the domestic economy has been relatively repetitive this year, and the excessive optimism about the economy at the beginning of the year has gradually evolved into the current excessive pessimism about the economy. Since the beginning of this year, investors have discussed more medium- and long-term economic problems, and the problems have been fully exposed, and the pricing may be more sufficient.
The above-mentioned fund companies' view that the market may give positive feedback on the future or exceed expectations also means that fund managers are optimistic about the resilience of the A-share market in 2024. The fund company further said that combined with the market valuation level, the performance trend in 2024 and the short- and medium-term economic data, the A-share market has a high cost performance, and it is expected that the future growth style will continue to prevail, and it is firmly optimistic about the technology sector that is in line with the self-reliance and self-improvement of science and technology and truly benefits from the rapid development of the AI industry, the high-end manufacturing sector with a high level of prosperity and continuous policy increases, and the pharmaceutical and other sectors with a steady increase in performance growth.
"There is still one trading week left in the market in 2023, and on the whole, the A-share market will decline sharply in 2023, the market's money-making effect is poor, and many investors have suffered losses. But thinking about it the other way around, it has also laid a solid foundation for the layout of 2024. Yang Delong, manager of Qianhai Open Source High-quality Leading Fund, believes that the current market trend is weak, on the one hand, the market has been frustrated after the bulls' confidence has fallen below 3,000 points, resulting in a shrinkage adjustment in the market;
He believes that the overall style of the market this year is biased towards theme stocks and concept stocks, and good companies with good performance have undergone a relatively large adjustment. Since the peak of many high-quality stocks in February 2021, the market has been adjusting for nearly three years, and the adjustment has been relatively sufficient, and there may be an excellent opportunity for recovery in 2024. Judging from the magnitude of the adjustment, many high-quality stocks are only three or four folds relative to the high stock price, and some are even lower, which is the best time window for a good company, and it is undoubtedly the time to generate a good price. "Don't pay too much attention to short-term market volatility, the A-share market is ready to launch a new bull market in 2024, and it is now standing at the beginning of a new bull market, so it is important to maintain confidence and patience in the present. ”
Regarding the Hong Kong stock market, Yang Delong also believes that there are considerable opportunities in 2024 like A-shares, and may even perform earlier. He judged that although it is impossible to predict the short-term trend of Hong Kong stocks, the so-called vague correctness is greater than the precise error. Historically, the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market have not diverged much in the bottom area. The Hong Kong stock market has repeatedly peaked at the end of the bull market and bottomed out at the end of the bear market than the A-shares. At present, Hong Kong stocks have bottomed out and rebounded for 10 trading days in advance, which may be an important example of the bottoming out of the A-share market.
Editor-in-charge: Gui Yanmin
Proofreader: Li Lingfeng