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Resolve market risk points and identify policy power points丨Think tank

Resolve market risk points and identify policy power points丨Think tank

Resolve market risk points and identify policy power points丨Think tank
Resolve market risk points and identify policy power points丨Think tank

Editor's note

In 2023, the real estate industry will enter a critical period of transformation and development. On the one hand, the macro economy is facing a three-year recovery period after the epidemic, with sluggish economic growth, and on the other hand, the relationship between supply and demand in the mainland real estate market has undergone major changes, with expectations falling and demand falling. Under the effect of many unfavorable factors, the real estate market will continue to adjust at a low level in 2023. At the policy level, the "city-specific policy" regulation and control measures have continued to exert force, and the establishment of a new development model with the "three major projects" as an important starting point has been accelerated. At the end of the year, we will make a brief review and outlook on the real estate market around the real estate market trend, policy trend and industry situation. 

In 2023, the pace and intensity of real estate policy optimization and adjustment will be more intensive and stronger than any period in history. From the demand side's down payment, interest rate reduction, tax reduction, provident fund policy, and relaxation of purchase restrictions, to the supply side's guaranteed delivery of real estate and market entities, the financing of enterprises of different ownership systems is supported without discrimination, and the real estate market relaxation policy can be described as "due to exhaustion".

Su Zhiyong, Institute of Urban and Regional Governance

In 2023, the real estate market will show a trend of first rising and then declining. Although the policy continues to exert force at both the supply and demand ends, the property market continues to hover at a low point due to the fact that the debt default risk of real estate enterprises has not yet been cleared, coupled with the weak income expectations of residents and the deterioration of market expectations.

The real estate market continues to be sluggish, resulting in the blockage of commercial housing sales, and it is becoming more and more difficult for real estate companies to withdraw funds.

In 2023, the real estate policy level will be based on loose policies, and restrictive measures such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions will be gradually withdrawn from low-energy cities to high-energy cities, and policy measures such as "city-specific policies" will be intensively introduced. In particular, on July 24, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee redefined the tone of real estate, proposing that "it is necessary to adapt to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, better meet the needs of residents for rigid and improved housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market". With the overall recovery of the economy and the implementation of a series of real estate optimization and adjustment policies, some indicators of the real estate market show signs of marginal improvement. At the same time, the new real estate model with the "three major projects" as the starting point has become an important force driving the development of the industry.

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The property market first rose and then declined

Continue to build a bottom

In 2023, the real estate market will show a surge and a decline. At the beginning of the year, driven by the relatively loose real estate policy, the real estate market showed a phased recovery. Since the middle of the second quarter, the domestic housing sales market has cooled rapidly. In the second half of the year, with the further relaxation of the regulation and control policies in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities, the property market showed signs of partial and impulsive recovery, but the overall performance of the market was still weak.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in January ~ November this year, the national real estate development investment fell by 9.4% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8%, the sales of commercial housing decreased by 5.2%, and the area of new housing construction decreased by 21.2%. Judging by these data, the real estate market is still in a correction.

The continuous adjustment of the real estate market stems from the combination of multiple factors. First, due to the macroeconomic impact, the employment situation is not optimistic, residents' income expectations are declining, their purchasing power is weakened, and their willingness to increase leverage is not strong; second, the relationship between market supply and demand has undergone major changes, the scale of the school-age housing group has declined, and most third- and fourth-tier cities have oversupply; third, housing prices are no longer expected to continue to rise, and the psychology of buying up rather than buying down has caused a strong wait-and-see mood in the market; fourth, the risk of default of developers' debts has not been cleared, and buyers have doubts about whether the off-plan housing can be delivered on schedule. Overall, the lack of confidence in the market is an important reason for the weak consolidation of the market.

The lack of confidence in the real estate market is also reflected in the land market. In 2023, the scale of land auction transactions will drop sharply. According to the data of the China Index Institute, in January ~ November 2023, the launch and transaction area of residential land in 300 cities across the country decreased by 21.5% and 28.0% year-on-year respectively, and the absolute scale was the lowest level in the same period in the past ten years.

Although the overall performance of the commercial housing market and the land market is weak, there is a large differentiation between cities and regions. From the sales side, low-energy cities continue to be under great pressure, and the policy stimulus effect is not obvious. High-energy cities have recovered to varying degrees after policy optimization, reflecting the strong resilience of the market. The same is true for the land market, in the context of the decline in the total number of land transactions, the competition for the land market in the hot sectors of first-tier cities and some second-tier cities is still fierce, and the trend of land transactions concentrated in core cities is becoming more and more obvious.

The differentiation of the market is also reflected among real estate companies. As the vast majority of debt defaults are concentrated in private real estate enterprises, which leads to the delay or even unfinished delivery of their projects, home buyers are worried about whether such private real estate projects can be delivered on time, and the sales of commercial housing have been seriously affected. According to the data of the China Index Institute, in January ~ November this year, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 5.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. Among the real estate companies that have released their results, most of the top state-owned real estate enterprises have maintained a year-on-year increase in sales scale. Among them, real estate companies with sales growth of more than 10% year-on-year include China Shipping, China Resources, C&D, Yuexiu, Huafa, Lianfa, Guomao Real Estate, etc. In contrast, the sales scale of the vast majority of private real estate enterprises declined year-on-year, and the decline in insurance real estate enterprises was particularly obvious.

The land market is similar to the commercial housing market, and in the first 11 months, 21 of the top 100 real estate companies acquired land with an amount of more than 10 billion yuan, of which 14 were central state-owned enterprises, 5 were private enterprises, and 2 were mixed-ownership real estate enterprises. Lack of confidence in the future market and declining financing capacity have made private real estate companies extremely cautious in the land market.

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There is a long way to go to resolve real estate risks

As a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate connects the two major needs of consumption and investment, and plays an important role in economic growth. According to statistics, real estate economic activities account for nearly 30% of GDP, real estate-related loans account for nearly 40% of bank credit, real estate-related income accounts for 50% of local comprehensive financial resources, and real estate accounts for 60% of urban residents' assets. The risk contagion of real estate enterprises has an important impact on the upstream and downstream industrial chains, guaranteed delivery of buildings, local finance, and even the security of the financial system. Stabilizing the real estate market and preventing and resolving real estate risks are crucial to macroeconomic and social development.

In 2023, the real estate market will face serious difficulties, with the continuous decline in the sales of commercial housing, the concentrated maturity of debts of real estate enterprises, and the poor financing of private real estate enterprises, especially those that are out of insurance, and multiple factors will exacerbate the tension in the capital chain of real estate enterprises. Since the beginning of 2023, more than 180 RMB corporate bonds and Chinese-funded US dollar bonds have defaulted, involving more than 40 issuers.

The frequent debt defaults of real estate enterprises are mainly due to the following reasons: First, the decline in commercial housing sales has led to the weakening of the liquidity of real estate enterprises. Second, the financing cost of real estate enterprises in the early stage is high, and the debt is concentrated and mature, and the pressure on repayment of principal and interest increases. Third, the financing environment of private real estate enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Although the central government will introduce the "three arrows" policy on the financing side of real estate enterprises in 2022, financial institutions are reluctant to lend due to their own risk considerations, and the "icing on the cake" is more than "charcoal in the snow".

Judging from the funds of real estate enterprises announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 1~11 months, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 117044 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. The year-on-year data of all sub-indicators fell across the board, of which domestic loans decreased by 9.8%, the use of foreign capital decreased by 35%, self-raised funds decreased by 20.3%, deposits and advance receipts decreased by 10.9%, and personal mortgage loans decreased by 8.1%.

Under the weak real estate market and continued operating pressure, the phenomenon of delisting and bankruptcy of real estate companies has intensified. Up to now, more than 10 listed real estate companies, including Tahoe Group, Blu-ray Real Estate, Sinic Holdings, Jiakai City, Yuetai Shares, Carnival International, Sunshine City and Sansheng, have been delisted from A-shares or H-shares during the year. In addition, a number of real estate companies are in long-term suspension or stock prices below 1 yuan for a long time, facing the risk of triggering delisting terms.

The debt default of real estate enterprises has further affected the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. On the one hand, the weakening demand of the real estate market has led to the shrinking demand of the industrial chain and the decline of revenue and profits; on the other hand, under the pressure of funds, a large number of accounts payable and commercial bills of real estate enterprises cannot be settled and paid on time, which brings greater operating pressure to upstream and downstream enterprises. Taking Guangtian Group, a leading building decoration company, as an example, as a supplier of Evergrande, affected by Evergrande's debt default, a large number of accounts receivable were difficult to pay, revenue fell off a cliff, became insolvent, and was forced to go bankrupt and restructured.

The risk of debt default of real estate enterprises also increases the difficulty of ensuring the delivery of buildings. At present, nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies have defaulted on their debts, and most of them have problems such as project suspension, significant decline in sales, and tight cash flow. In the environment of continuous tension in the capital chain, its task of "ensuring the delivery of buildings" is facing a severe test.

The intensification of the risk of debt default of real estate enterprises will also bring greater risks to the financial system and local finances. Affected by the decline in the real estate market and the default of some real estate enterprises, the balance of real estate loans and the non-performing rate of some state-owned commercial banks and large and medium-sized joint-stock commercial banks have both risen. In terms of local finance, the decrease in land purchases by real estate enterprises has led to a simultaneous decline in the revenue of local government funds and a decline in the ability of local governments to repay debts. According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, in 1~11 months, the national government fund budget revenue was 5,188.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. The income from the transfer of China's land use rights was 4,203.1 billion yuan, down 17.9 percent year-on-year.

In view of real estate risks, governments at all levels have taken a series of measures from the supply side and the demand side to actively resolve real estate risks. Especially since the second half of the year, the implementation of the "three arrows" of real estate financing and the optimization of real estate regulation and control policies have been intensively introduced. The Central Economic Work Conference held recently clearly pointed out that next year, it is necessary to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

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Policy relaxation helps

Confidence in the property market has recovered

In 2023, the pace and intensity of real estate policy optimization and adjustment will be more intensive and stronger than any period in history. In the second half of the year, with the resetting of the real estate market at the Politburo meeting on July 24, the central government and relevant ministries and commissions began to increase their policies, and drove the first-tier cities to optimize and adjust their real estate policies. From the demand side's down payment, interest rate reduction, tax reduction, provident fund policy, and relaxation of purchase restrictions, to the supply side's guaranteed delivery of real estate and market entities, the financing of enterprises of different ownership systems is supported without discrimination, and the real estate market relaxation policy can be described as "due to exhaustion". According to incomplete statistics, there were more than 600 property market regulation policies of local governments throughout the year. Up to now, except for the core areas of first-tier cities and some hot second-tier cities, the purchase restriction policy has basically withdrawn from the market.

On the demand side, the policy focuses on reducing the cost of buying a house and lowering the threshold for buying a house. According to CRIC statistics, since the beginning of the year, 29 cities have canceled or relaxed purchase restrictions, 102 cities have adjusted loan restrictions, 23 cities have adjusted sales restrictions, 221 cities have adjusted provident fund policies, 145 cities have implemented housing purchase subsidies, and 29 cities have implemented tax exemptions.

In terms of reducing the cost of buying a house, the central bank not only lowered the interest rate on the first and second home loans, but also made a concentrated reduction in the interest rate on the stock of housing loans. According to the data, in December, the average mortgage interest rates of the first and second sets in Baicheng have dropped to 3.86% and 4.41% respectively. The interest rates on the first and second home loans in first-tier cities also dropped to 4.13% and 4.54%, down 48BP and 59BP respectively compared with the same period last year.

To a certain extent, the relaxation policy on the demand side has played a positive role in promoting housing consumption, and has really brought benefits to home buyers, especially since the second half of the year, the policy adjustment effect in first-tier cities has been obvious. It has played a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market and restoring confidence in the real estate market.

On the supply side, in response to the financing of real estate enterprises, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly emphasized that it is necessary to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and do not hesitate to lend, draw or break loans to real estate enterprises that are operating normally. In July this year, the People's Bank of China, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and other departments extended the application period of the "16 Financial Measures" issued last year, and urged all financial institutions to actively implement them. In November, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) put forward three "no less than" for the financing of real estate enterprises: the growth rate of real estate loans of banks shall not be lower than the average growth rate of real estate loans in the industry, the growth rate of corporate loans to non-state-owned real estate enterprises shall not be lower than the growth rate of real estate of the Bank, and the growth rate of personal mortgage loans of non-state-owned real estate enterprises shall not be lower than the growth rate of mortgage loans of the Bank.

On December 13, at the 2023~2024 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Dong Jianguo, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that in response to the risk of debt default of some real estate companies, the financial management department has issued a series of support policies. We will continue to cooperate with the financial management department, do a good job in the implementation of various policies, treat everyone equally, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownerships, support real estate enterprises with tight capital chains to solve the problem of short-term cash flow constraints, and promote their return to normal operations.

Resolve market risk points and identify policy power points丨Think tank

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Transform the real estate model

While preventing and resolving real estate risks and restoring market confidence, the central government focuses on the "three major projects" to promote the transformation of the real estate model.

Since the beginning of this year, the deployment of the "three major projects" has been repeatedly mentioned at high-level meetings. On April 28, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that it is necessary to plan and build affordable housing, actively and steadily promote the transformation of urban villages and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes in super large and mega cities; on July 24, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee again proposed to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, actively promote the transformation of urban villages and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and revitalize and renovate all kinds of idle real estate.

In terms of affordable housing construction, the executive meeting of the State Council deliberated and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on the Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guiding Opinions") on August 25, and on September 4, the State Council held a video and telephone conference on the planning and construction of affordable housing, emphasizing that affordable housing should be strictly closed and not listed and traded.

Transformation of urban villages: In July, the General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Megacities. On October 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that megacities are actively and steadily promoting the transformation of urban villages, which are divided into three categories to promote the implementation: one is the implementation of demolition and new construction that meets the requirements, the other is to carry out regular renovation and upgrading, and the third is the implementation of demolition and consolidation in between.

In terms of "peacetime and emergency" infrastructure construction: On July 14, the executive meeting of the State Council deliberated and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Construction of "Peacetime and Emergency Dual-use" Public Infrastructure in Super Large and Mega Cities, and on July 20, the State Council held a video and telephone conference on the deployment of the "peacetime and emergency dual-use" public infrastructure construction work in super large and mega cities, calling for the improvement of the policy system, the improvement of the working mechanism, and the promotion of the implementation of the "peacetime and emergency" public infrastructure construction as soon as possible.

The layout and promotion of the "three major projects" not only provide a new impetus for stimulating investment and consumption and promoting macroeconomic recovery, but also provide a strong starting point for the transformation of the real estate industry.

(This article was published in China Real Estate News on December 25, 11th edition, responsible editor Su Zhiyong)

Duty Editorial Board: Li Hongmei

Process Editor: Wen Hongmei

Review: Dai Shichao

China Real Estate News All Rights Reserved

It may not be reproduced or used in any form without authorization

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