2023-12-22 00:34
Source: Xinhua News Agency
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MOSCOW, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- In 2023, the situation in Asia and Europe will be complex and volatile, with heightened tensions and rising security risks: the Ukraine crisis is protracted, the Nagorno-Karabakh region still has hidden worries, and the geopolitical game between Russia and the West is heating up.
The Ukrainian crisis is at a stalemate
Since the beginning of this year, the Ukraine crisis has entered a stage of stalemate between the two sides, and the "war of attrition" and "tug-of-war" have become prominent features.
On May 21, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had full control of Artyomovsk, an important town in the Donetsk region (known as Bakhmut in Ukraine). Subsequently, the Ukrainian army, with the support of the United States and the West, began a counteroffensive in the direction of Yuzhno-Donetsk, Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia, and at the same time intensified its strikes on the Crimean Peninsula and the southern border areas of Russia, but it has been difficult to break through the Russian defense line. Recently, the Russian army has intensified its offensive against Avdeyevka, an important town in eastern Ukraine, in an attempt to achieve the military goal of "liberating Donbass" as soon as possible.
After the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict in early October, the focus of international public opinion shifted rapidly, coupled with the spread of "Ukrainian fatigue", the support of the Western public for continued aid to Ukraine has been declining, and Western media have frequently revealed that American and European politicians have privately persuaded the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Russia.
On November 25, in the Ukrainian city of Kyiv, the roof of a building was hit by drone fragments. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Roman Petushkov)
Zelensky denied this, reiterated that he was not ready to start peace talks with Russia, and frequently spoke out in the international community, hoping to receive continuous assistance from the West. Towards the end of the year, Zelensky announced that Ukraine will produce 1 million drones in 2024, and the Ukrainian military plans to mobilize another 450,000 to 500,000 troops. The Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that the prerequisites for the transition of the situation in Ukraine to a peaceful direction are not in place at present, and Russia's absolute priority is to achieve the set goals of the special military operation.
Russia has survived Western maximum sanctions, and its economy and society have remained stable. Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the "annual stocktake" event held in Moscow on the 14th that Russia's GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2023. Russia's industrial production and manufacturing sectors both grew, and the unemployment rate fell to 2.9% for the first time. Russia's external debt has dropped from $46 billion to $32 billion.
On the political and security fronts, the Ukraine crisis has led to the rupture of Russian-European relations and Russian-US relations, and Europe has been further tied to the US chariot and its strategic autonomy has declined. On the economic front, the crisis has made the global economic recovery more difficult, and the global energy and food supply crunch and price volatility have caused many countries to struggle.
Regional games have intensified
In the context of the Ukraine crisis, tensions between Russia and the West have intensified, and Russia is facing greater pressure and military threats.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, and the smoke of gunfire between Azerbaijan and Armenia has resumed. On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a military strike against the Armenian-controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) under the guise of an "anti-terrorist operation" in an effort to restore "constitutional order" there. After a blitzkrieg, Azerbaijan took full control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and immediately announced that it had reached a ceasefire agreement with representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. On 7 December, Azerbaijan and Armenia issued a joint statement on improving relations between the two countries.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region, known as the "Caucasus powder keg", seems to have returned to calm, but the undercurrent of great power competition behind it is turbulent. As a traditional participant in the affairs of the Transcaucasus, Russia plays a key role in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In the past two years, Armenia, which is regarded as an ally of Russia, has repeatedly publicly criticized Russia's "inaction" on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. After losing the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia directly refused to attend the meeting of the Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which was dominated by Russia. Not only that, but Armenia has refused to participate in the CSTO military exercises, instead holding joint military exercises with the United States.
As a result of the Ukraine crisis, Russia's resources in other geopolitical directions have decreased, and the United States has taken the opportunity to launch actions to try to weaken Russia's influence in the region. In September this year, US President Joe Biden held a meeting with the heads of state of the five Central Asian countries in New York, which was the first time that the "C5+1" dialogue mechanism between the United States and the five Central Asian countries was upgraded from the ministerial level to the head of state level.
Han Lu, deputy director of the Eurasian Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, believes that the United States and the West have seized the opportunity to step up efforts to win over countries in the region, which has led to a decline in Russia's ability to control the situation in the region, and in particular, the alliance between Armenia and Russia has been damaged. On the whole, however, regional countries still maintain close ties with Russia, and relations with Russia remain a diplomatic priority.
Cooperation with China has deepened
Although the United States and the West continue to add fuel to the fire, Asian and European countries generally hope to seek peace, development, and cooperation. Guided by head-of-state diplomacy, China and countries in the region have inherited friendship and cooperation and worked together to address challenges.
In March this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Russia for the first time this year. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin came to China to attend the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. The two face-to-face meetings between the Chinese and Russian heads of state during the year fully demonstrated the high level and special nature of the relations between the two countries.
In May this year, the heads of state of the five Central Asian countries gathered in Xi'an, an ancient city in China, to participate in the first China-Central Asia Summit, and building a closer China-Central Asia community with a shared future has become the most important political achievement of the summit. Over the past 31 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations, China and Central Asian countries have accelerated their synergistic development strategies, deepened practical cooperation and consolidated friendly relations. The China-Central Asia Summit has raised the relations between China and Central Asian countries to a new height.
This is the press center of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation taken in Beijing on October 17. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Bin
2023 marks the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, and Central Asia is the first place to initiate the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as a demonstration area for the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the past decade, China and Central Asian countries have jointly built the "Belt and Road" initiative on a pilot basis, and have achieved fruitful results in the docking of development strategies, the construction of cooperation mechanisms, and the promotion of major projects.
At the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, China announced eight actions to support high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, covering new highlights such as the digital economy, green economy, industrial and supply chains, etc., providing new opportunities for the quality and upgrading of cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in the future.