Editor's note: On December 20, Guangdong Province released the development plan for five metropolitan areas: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary, Shanchaojie and Zhanmao (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). The planning period is from 2023 to 2030, and the outlook is to 2035, clarifying the "road map" for the development of the five major metropolitan areas.
In recent years, the construction of metropolitan areas has been in full swing and has become an important carrier for promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and accelerating new urbanization.
As a spatial form that transcends the city, what kind of picture of the future development of the city has been constructed for us? The reporter of Southern Finance and Economics Omnimedia and 21st Century Business Herald had an exclusive conversation with Lu Ming, distinguished professor of Antai College of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and executive director of China Development Research Institute.
Southern Finance and Economics all-media reporter Chen Siqi reported from Shenzhen
"People are concentrated from rural areas to cities, from small cities to large cities, and from the periphery of cities to central urban areas. ”
These are the three major trends in population flow summarized by Lu Ming, distinguished professor of Antai College of Economics and Management at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and executive director of the China Development Research Institute, in the book "Centripetal City".
In the process of urbanization in China, the setting of "metropolitan area" is particularly special. In a simple sense, metropolitan area refers to the spatial form of urbanization centered on super large cities or large cities with strong radiation and driving functions, and with "one-hour commuting circle" as the basic scope.
From a morphological point of view, the metropolitan area seems to cover all the processes of the three trends summarized by Lu Ming, and goes beyond the scope of simple personnel flow, including industry, transportation, education and other dimensions, showing more complex and diverse characteristics.
Lu Ming believes that the central cities and peripheral small and medium-sized cities in the metropolitan area are like the sun and planets in the solar system. The larger the "Sun", the more favorable it is for the outer "planets" to receive its energy. The radiation and driving effect of the "sun" on the "planet" depends on the connectivity of rail transit and other physical levels, as well as the degree of coordination and docking of institutional mechanisms between cities.
On December 20, Guangdong Province issued the development plan for the five major metropolitan areas of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary, Shanchaojie and Zhanmao.
As the construction of the metropolitan area accelerates, how should we coordinate the competition between cities in terms of industry, talents, and other factors, and straighten out the development ideas? Reporters from the Southern Finance and Economics Omnimedia and the 21st Century Business Herald interviewed Lu Ming, a well-known scholar.
(Photo provided by Lu Ming/interviewee)
How to break the "hidden barriers" in the metropolitan area
-- Exploring the establishment of coordination bodies at the metropolitan area level
Southern Finance and Economics: At present, there are relevant plans for metropolitan areas across the country, and the effects are different. What are the successful experiences and lessons learned from the metropolitan area?
Lu Ming: The metropolitan area refers to the core large city as the center, and the peripheral small and medium-sized cities to form an integrated development trend. There is a signature criterion, that is, the "one-hour commuting circle", people living in the periphery can easily go to the center for employment and consumption, and people or enterprises in the center can also easily travel to and from the periphery for a certain function.
For example, in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou-Foshan, Shenzhen-Dongguan and other metropolitan areas. Guangzhou-Foshan is geographically close, and both the physical connectivity, such as the opening of the Guangzhou-Foshan line, and the degree of docking at the management level, are relatively high. I often use the analogy that if you don't take into account administrative boundaries, Guangzhou and Foshan are equivalent to Pudong and Puxi in Shanghai. The degree of integration of Shenzhen-Dongguan is also very high, but there are still some gaps in connectivity and density between the construction of rail transit and Guangzhou-Foshan.
From a national point of view, other metropolitan areas either have a strong central city to the surrounding radiation and driving effect, or the planning area of the metropolitan area is too large. From the perspective of "one-hour commuting circle", the area of the metropolitan area should be between 10,000 and 20,000 square kilometers, but some metropolitan areas are planned to be 60,000 square kilometers. This has also led to some metropolitan areas crossing not only city borders, but also provincial borders.
There is a set of calculations in "Centripetal City": if the distance between two cities across provinces is 200 kilometers, the traffic flow of the two cities is equivalent to the traffic flow of 302 kilometers between two cities in the same province. This means that the provincial border has distanced the city by about 102 kilometers.
To a large extent, administrative boundaries hinder the integrated development of metropolitan areas, which is a problem to be addressed in the future.
Southern Finance & Economics: The cities in the Greater Bay Area are densely populated, and the Guangzhou metropolitan area and the Shenzhen metropolitan area are quite close in geographical location, and there are similarities in advantageous industries. Will the establishment of metropolitan areas make the competition between cities in the Bay Area more intense, and how to break the cycle of competition over coordination?
Lu Ming: Behind this problem is the relationship between the government and the market. Where companies choose to land, more consideration is profitability. After the profit target is met, the upstream and downstream of the enterprise will naturally gather to form an industrial chain.
Looking at the industrial planning of various cities, in order to maximize GDP and tax revenue, local governments are not only competing with each other, but also between districts and districts in the city, and the industries are converging, "I want what you want", resulting in duplicate construction and overcapacity.
Decentralized decision-making will lead to poor regional coordination effect, and in the future, it is possible to explore the establishment of a first-level coordination agency at the metropolitan level above the municipal level.
The government's investment promotion mechanism can also be explored, for example, at the metropolitan area level, the establishment of a government guidance fund in the form of equity participation, and the tax revenue of each city will be proportional to the amount of shares, so that the investment of the fund can go beyond the city's basic interests.
Although institutional and institutional obstacles still exist, at present, the power of the market economy is strong. For example, with the increase in the price of production factors and the shortage of resources, the proportion of Shenzhen's service industry is getting higher and higher, and the manufacturing industry is spilling over to peripheral cities, which is in line with the law of the market. It is the responsibility of the government to coordinate efforts to increase the supply of industrial land in surrounding cities to adapt to this trend. Some companies that are more closely linked to innovation and occupy less land can still stay in the central city, and some industries can even "go upstairs".
Southern Finance and Economics: Shenzhen and Hong Kong are only separated by a river, and they also meet the standard of "one-hour commuting circle". What is Hong Kong's position in the construction of the Shenzhen metropolitan area?
Lu Ming: We talk about "one-hour commuting circle", and Hong Kong to Shenzhen is the fastest ten minutes, a large number of people in Hong Kong go to school, work, live in Shenzhen, Shenzhen and Hong Kong in space, traffic has been in line with the concept of metropolitan area, in infrastructure, personnel exchanges, industrial interaction and other aspects of the degree of integration is constantly improving.
As for whether it is called a "metropolitan area", I think it is not important to call it a "metropolitan area", but it is important to promote real complementary advantages: Hong Kong provides high-end services, and Shenzhen provides science and technology, application scenarios and industrial foundation.
In the future, there is still a lot of room for the coordinated development of Shenzhen and Hong Kong. For example, Hong Kong's advantages in financial and legal services are still very strong, and Shenzhen can serve as a bridge for the mainland and Hong Kong's common law systems to effectively connect.
In addition, Hong Kong plays a leading role in convention and exhibition, culture and entertainment, and is a place where Eastern and Western cultures blend, making it easier for foreigners to adapt to living in Hong Kong. In the short term, foreigners' residence and life in Shenzhen will still encounter problems in language, religion, children's education and other systems.
If Hong Kong can play a better role, it will be able to make up for the shortcomings of mainland cities in terms of attracting and livable overseas talents, enhance the mainland's talent competitiveness, and work together to "grab" the world's top talents.
How to break the situation in the "poverty belt around the metropolitan area".
-- From looking at the total amount to looking at the per capita
Southern Finance and Economics: There is a view that the central city of the metropolitan area will "siphon" the resources of small and medium-sized cities in the circle, deprive them of development opportunities, and develop from the "urban poverty belt" to the "metropolitan poverty belt". What do you think of this statement? How do small and medium-sized cities in the metropolitan area deal with themselves?
Lu Ming: Local government entities want to maximize local GDP and tax revenue, and almost all of them are doing growth-oriented planning, while the population is constantly moving from small cities to large cities.
Cities in the metropolitan area should first recognize whether it is necessary to do growth-oriented planning, depending on their own conditions. Some cities are too attractive to their population, and their growth plans are constrained by the original institutional mechanisms, such as Shanghai's population restrictions and Shenzhen's land restrictions.
There is also a category of cities where the industrial structure is not so attractive to the population, and planning for growth will lead to idle industrial parks and infrastructure, leading to inefficient government investment and high debt ratios, which is unsustainable.
In the former category, policies need to be "loosened", and in the latter category, they need to be "contracted".
The relationship between the central city of the metropolitan area and the small and medium-sized cities in the periphery is like the sun and planets in the solar system. The larger the Sun, the more likely it is for the planets on the periphery to receive its energy.
In the central city dominated by the service industry, people gather in the center, which produces higher labor productivity and can produce a stronger radiation and driving effect on the periphery. The farther away the outer planets are from the sun, the less energy they receive, and it seems to be the so-called "urban poverty zone". But such a view is very one-sided.
For small and medium-sized cities, there needs to be a change of thinking behind this, economic development is based on the total amount or per capita? Development is a comprehensive concept, and we have a very strong concept and motivation of "aggregate", because local government tax revenue is linked to the total GDP. If you look at the total amount, you will see "siphon", and if you look at the per capita, you will see "radiation". Because on the other side of population decline, per capita GDP and per capita income are actually growing in tandem with the center, especially when small and medium-sized cities in the periphery pay more attention to the quality of life, and the per capita concept is more important.
Southern Finance and Economics: From looking at the total amount to looking at the per capita, in addition to the change in thinking, how should we help the underdeveloped areas in the metropolitan area?
Lu Ming: Most of the current planning is done according to the "city", not the "metropolitan area".
For example, although Shanghai and Kunshan, Jiangsu Province are connected by highways, rail transit and other infrastructure, there is a large amount of farmland in between, and even farmland is not far from the subway station in some places, and Shanghai has the requirement to retain a certain amount of agricultural land. As a result, the suburbs of the core metropolis have created development depressions, and in Shanghai's Qingpu district, locals would not be able to see Kunshan across the street as developing industry and real estate, while this side is farmland.
While the government is stepping up the construction of rail transit, it should consider how to develop the land along the subway line. "Station-city integration" is an ideal model, with a sufficient number of residential buildings within one to two square kilometers of the subway station, especially low-rent housing and public rental housing, so that the low-income groups in the city can also work in the central city within one hour of the subway.
From looking at the total amount to the per capita, it is necessary to have an incentive mechanism in the fiscal and taxation system. China's tax system is dominated by value-added tax, which is linked to local production, so everywhere wants to increase the total GDP. In the future, it is necessary to change the tax structure in the direction of property tax, consumption tax, etc.
At the same time, after the outflow of population from underdeveloped areas, more financial funds should come from the central government's financial transfer payments, which is precisely the problem to be solved in the construction of a unified national market.
Southern Finance & Economics: Are there any explorations in the fiscal and taxation system?
Lu Ming: There are vertical fiscal transfer payments, such as transfer payments from the state to underdeveloped provinces, transfer payments from provinces to underdeveloped cities, and transfer payments from cities to relatively remote areas.
We also have a horizontal transfer payment mechanism. For example, the "pairing assistance" system between provinces and cities.
In the future, there are some positive explorations to match transfer payments with population flows. In the past, transfer payments were transferred according to the registered population, but now they are gradually transferred according to the permanent resident population, so that the economic resources brought by the transfer payment can be consistent with the direction of population flow.
In addition, there is the "enclave economy". This kind of cross-regional cooperation is also a bit like horizontal fiscal transfer payments, with developed regions contributing money, technology, and management, and underdeveloped regions providing land, and the resulting tax revenue has a sharing mechanism, as is typical of the Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone jointly built by Shenzhen and Shanwei.
How to take the lead in the "war for people".
-- Subsidies are temporary, and employment and consumption have a long-term effect
Southern Finance and Economics: The construction of metropolitan areas involves the reallocation of economic resources. Among them, talent is one of the most concerned elements, and the "war for talent" is becoming increasingly fierce in various places. What are the key factors for a city to "grab" talents?
Lu Ming: When people go to a city, they mainly achieve two purposes, one is employment, and the other is consumption.
In terms of employment, some cities have opportunities for industrial development, and it is possible to grab people. Some cities have poor geographical conditions and small space for industrial development, so they can't grab people.
If there is an industry first, then people will come. Only those who coincide with the comparative advantages of local economic development will eventually stay. There is also a situation: give him a little preferential subsidy and come, and leave after receiving the subsidy, otherwise he will continue to be given all kinds of subsidies, but "the wool comes out of the sheep", which is not sustainable.
On the other hand, it should be noted that young people are now paying more and more attention to the quality of life, and cities need to provide a better comprehensive business environment, more complete consumption facilities such as eating, drinking and playing, as well as the quality of public services, so as to retain people with life.
Southern Finance and Economics: Looking at the talent subsidy policies in various places, it seems that most of them are based on academic qualifications and mainly to attract high-skilled labor. What are the possible negative effects of curbing the supply of low-skilled labor, and how can we strike a balance between them?
Lu Ming: High-skilled labor force and low-skilled labor force are economic terms, which are divided according to the level of education. The rationale for subsidizing highly skilled labor is that the agglomeration of these talents in a city creates a large number of positive externalities. If the value created is fully reflected in personal income, the government does not need to subsidize it.
The question is, if a city only has college students, can it function? The development of the city needs to have the complementarity of different skilled populations, not only the highly skilled labor force to lead the innovation, but also the need to be equipped with enough skilled workers, or people who provide public services and life services.
In the short term, if this group of people with low education level leaves the city, it will cause a shortage of workers in the service industry, increase prices, and affect the efficient operation and quality of life of the whole city.
In the long run, China has faced the problems of an aging population and a declining birthrate. As an innovation-driven country, we need to continuously improve the level of national education, and the current shortcoming is the education level of children with household registration in rural areas. Therefore, we need to consider lowering the threshold for the urbanization of the foreign population, and these potential "second generations" may become a source of innovative talents in the future.
I believe that subsidies can be provided to high-skilled workers, and public services should be more skewed towards low-income earners. The income gap in large cities is large, but it is necessary to maintain innovation, so it is necessary to equalize public services so that the income gap between people does not directly translate into a gap in the quality of life.
According to the common practice nowadays, the competition for talent is linked to household registration, and household registration is linked to public services, which ultimately plays the role of subsidizing high-income earners (or potential high-income earners).
To attract high-skilled talents, efforts should be made in terms of taxation, industrial venture capital funds, and living convenience, while public service policies should be inclusive and biased towards low-income people, and should also be oriented to the permanent resident population and decoupled from household registration status. If it is done the other way, it will be detrimental to common prosperity.
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