Do you dare to believe that the general rise and fall of housing prices has actually happened, and it is the data directly from the Bureau of Statistics, which is relatively moderate, so I am afraid that many people would never dream that the change would be so fast.
On December 15th, the Bureau of Statistics released the latest housing price data for November, and none of the second-hand houses in 70 key cities rose month-on-month, only Hangzhou did not rise or fall month-on-month, which can be said to be a state of full decline, which is a very rare situation, because these 70 cities are the most representative, and the remaining more than 500 cities can already imagine what kind of state it is.
At the level of new homes, there are also 59 cities that fell month-on-month, 3 more than the number of cities that fell in October, and only 9 cities are up month-on-month, with the highest increase being Shanghai, only 0.6%. And this increase is still dominated by developers at the level of new housing, the policy does not allow it to fall, and the new housing wants to fall because there are ideas and there is not much practical action.
From the perspective of development data, from January to November, the national real estate developer investment was 10.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, of which the investment in residential buildings was 7.88 trillion yuan, also a decrease of 9%. This means that we are still continuing to weaken in terms of the enthusiasm for taking land from the source and the bread end, because the overall real estate investment growth rate has not returned to positive since it turned negative in April last year, and under the continuous policy stimulus, although there is a narrowing of the decline in the process, it still has not reversed the downward state of investment.
In the first 11 months of this year, the sales of commercial housing were only 10.5 trillion, a decrease of 5.2%, so the market also predicted that this year's data will become double 12, that is, 12 trillion square meters, 12 trillion sales, but look at the current situation, the forecast of double 12 is also optimistic, although Beijing and Shanghai have just introduced a down payment, interest rate reduction of the patch rescue operation, but the suburbs of the purchase restrictions have not been taken out, without this before wanting to reverse the price rise can be said to be a flash in the pan.
For real estate investment in all regions, the Northeast as a whole fell the most, falling by 25.5% in the first 11 months , followed by the west, and then the central and eastern, so we also said before, if the follow-up price limit is further spread, the country can keep a total of more than a dozen cities, almost every province to protect 1-2 cities, each city can protect 3-5 regions, so that the remaining cities and regions, real estate companies will choose the price reduction strategy for shipment, of course, before this state-owned houses will be the first to carry out the second-hand track shipments, which is why the second-hand sale is good, the new house is not good to sell. State-owned second-hand housing is preferred, followed by new housing by real estate enterprises, and second-hand housing by individual owners is at the bottom, which is the priority of this round of property market.
Therefore, you will feel that in November, the price of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the second-tier increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand first-tier fell by 2.9% year-on-year, and the second-tier fell by 3.6% year-on-year. A large part of the price reduction of second-hand housing is the stock of state-owned housing in the shipment, and individual owners do not have the courage to reduce prices now, one is not very reluctant, and the other is that the holding cost has not yet made them feel urgent.
Recently, we can hardly hear where to talk about real estate tax, including some economic conferences, expert arguments, etc., do not seem to mention this word much, the reason is also very simple, now is the shipping stage, can not stimulate everyone's sensitive nerves, but we have to start with the end, all the bailout policies ultimately hope to let more individual owners hold real estate, and then collect real estate tax to supplement local fiscal revenue. This includes residences, apartments and shops, which are the objects of taxation, especially apartment shops must be taxed for the first time, and the tax rate may be higher than that of ordinary residences.
Just like when the interest rate of the stock house was lowered before, it had nothing to do with the apartments and shops other than the first residence, in the vernacular, there was no you when there was a benefit, and you were the first to pay when you had to pay. Everyone should be able to see such an obvious thing, and in the case of residences, whether the first set of the back should be paid depends on how the place arranges, because the real estate tax is most likely to be implemented by the city, and it will not be implemented in a one-size-fits-all manner, because the housing prices in various places are too different, and the houses worth 100 million Shanghai Tomson and the 18th-tier small county town are the first set, if they don't have to pay taxes, it must be very unfair, so they must be arranged separately.
And now is still in the bottom of the maintenance of the state of the property market, the first line from the end of August kicked off the prelude to the rescue of the city, Guangzhou has taken the lead in the release of the suburbs purchase restrictions, but also siphoned Foshan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and other places to buy a house, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have also loosened the restrictions on the recognition of housing do not recognize loans, The operation of lowering interest rates and down payments, the other second lines are even more naked, there are a lot of comprehensive lifting restrictions on purchases, and some have been completely loosened and settled, and it can also be seen that many cities are also helpless, and the cards in their hands are out one by one, and there are fewer and fewer things that can be taken out of their hands, because everyone can see that the policy continues to come out, and the price is still falling down, because the support of the policy can only be temporary, and the demand at the bottom is not really supported, it is still relatively virtual.
At the recent economic work conference, the real estate was also expressed many times, and the word risk appeared 8 times, of which 5 times focused on the statement on real estate and finance, and the word stability appeared 21 times, which also means that next year's policy will definitely be based on support and stability. But from the policy point of view, everyone into a little more, the policy will be a little looser, if everyone is more nervous, just squeeze the toothpaste operation, anyway, just be prepared, protracted war is the basic operation of this round of property market regulation.