This week (December 18-22) focuses on the December LPR released by the People's Bank of China, and analysts expect that the LPR will remain unchanged. In addition, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday, the 19th, and this policy meeting will be the last policy meeting of the year for the Bank of Japan.
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Monday, December 18
Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for December
US NAHB Housing Market Index for December
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December 19 (Tue)
Eurozone CPI (November).
Canada CPI for November
U.S. Housing Starts Annualized in November (10,000 units)
The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision
Domestic refined oil products opened a new round of price adjustment window
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Wednesday, December 20
China's 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) (Dec)
China's 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in Dec
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week to December 15 (10,000 barrels)
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Thursday, December 21
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week to December 16 (10,000 people)
The final annualized QoQ of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States
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Friday, December 22
Japan's core CPI for November YoY
The U.S. core PCE price index for November is year-on-year
This week, the ban on restricted shares with a market value of 78.066 billion yuan was lifted
➤Wind data shows that this week (December 18-December 22), 93 stocks will face the lifting of restricted shares, with a total of 3.008 billion shares. According to the closing price on December 15, the total market value of the lifting of the ban was 78.066 billion yuan. Among them, the top three in terms of market value are: CNGR (16.931 billion yuan), Yuanjie Technology (6.658 billion yuan), and Yandongwei (6.15 billion yuan).
1) The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a blockbuster release related to dividends and buybacks of A-share companies
On December 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 3 - Cash Dividends of Listed Companies (hereinafter referred to as the "Cash Dividend Guidelines"), which came into force on the date of promulgation. There are three main aspects of the revision of the "Cash Dividend Guidelines": First, it further clarifies the encouragement of cash dividend orientation and promotes the increase of dividend levels. Strengthen institutional constraints such as disclosure requirements for companies that do not pay dividends, and urge dividends. Focus on the supervision of companies with more financial investment but low dividend levels, supervise and improve the level of dividends, and focus on the main business. The second is to simplify the medium-term dividend procedure and promote the further optimization of the dividend method and rhythm. Encourage companies to increase the frequency of dividends when conditions permit, combined with regulatory practices, allow listed companies to review and approve the conditions and upper limits of the next year's interim cash dividends within a certain amount when convening the annual general meeting of shareholders to review the annual profit distribution plan, so as to facilitate the company to further increase the frequency of dividends, so that investors can better plan capital arrangements and share corporate growth dividends earlier. The third is to strengthen the constraints on enterprises with abnormally high proportion of dividends and guide reasonable dividends. It is emphasized that when formulating cash dividend policies, listed companies should comprehensively consider their own profitability, capital expenditure arrangements and debt repayment ability, and take into account investor returns and company development. Maintain close attention to companies with high asset-liability ratios, poor cash flow from operating activities, and large proportion of cash dividends to prevent adverse effects on the production and operation of enterprises and their ability to repay debts.
On the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Rules for Share Repurchase of Listed Companies", the main contents of the revision include: first, focus on improving the convenience of share repurchase, relax and add a condition for repurchasing shares necessary to maintain the company's value and shareholders' rights and interests, cancel the provisions of the window period for prohibiting repurchase, moderately relax the basic conditions for repurchase of listed companies, and optimize the prohibitive provisions on the declaration of repurchase transactions. The second is to further improve the repurchase restraint mechanism, encourage listed companies to form institutional arrangements for the implementation of repurchases, and clearly touch the obligations of the board of directors when the repurchase is necessary to maintain the company's value and shareholders' rights and interests. The third is to carry out adaptive textual modifications. In the early stage, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has solicited public comments on the revision of the rules, and all parties have generally expressed their approval and support. (SFC website)
2) The central bank: prudently and effectively prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, and accelerate the construction of financial stability guarantee funds
On December 15, the People's Bank of China Party Committee held an enlarged meeting to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference of the Xi and study the deployment and implementation of the work. The meeting stressed the need to prudently and effectively prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas. In accordance with the central government's deployment, guide financial institutions to follow the principles of compliance with laws and regulations and equal consultation, prudently resolve the risks of existing debts of financing platforms, strictly control new debts, and improve long-term debt risk prevention mechanisms. Cooperate with local governments and relevant departments to do a good job in risk prevention and mitigation in key areas and key institutions. Improve the mechanism for the prevention, early warning and disposal of financial risks, strengthen the function of deposit insurance, and enhance the standardization and authority of the early correction of financial risks. Promote financial stability legislation, speed up the construction of the financial stability guarantee fund, and firmly guard the bottom line of no systemic risks. (People's Bank of China website)
3) Multiple cases of JN.1 variant have been detected in China!National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention: It cannot be ruled out that it may become the dominant epidemic strain in China
On the evening of December 15, the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention released a Q&A on the JN.1 variant of the new coronavirus, and since the local JN.1 variant was first detected in November, as of December 10, a total of 7 cases of the JN.1 variant have been monitored in mainland China. Although the current prevalence level of the JN.1 variant in mainland China is extremely low, the subsequent impact of international epidemic strains and imported cases does not rule out the possibility that the JN.1 variant will become the dominant epidemic strain in China. (CCTV News)
4) Ministry of Finance: From January to November, the stamp duty on securities transactions was 169.7 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year
On December 15, the Ministry of Finance released the fiscal revenue and expenditure from January to November 2023. From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 200131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among them, the tax revenue was 16,842.0 billion yuan, up 10.2 percent year-on-year, and the non-tax revenue was 3,171.1 billion yuan, down 3 percent year-on-year. In terms of central and local revenues, the central general public budget revenue was 9,169.2 billion yuan, up 6.9 percent year-on-year, and the local general public budget revenue at the same level was 108439 billion yuan, up 8.7 percent year-on-year. From January to November, the stamp duty was 362.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. Among them, the stamp duty on securities transactions was 169.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. (Ministry of Finance website)
5) National Development and Reform Commission: By the end of 2026, the average annual growth rate of the data industry will exceed 20%, and the scale of data transactions will increase by 1 times
On December 15, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued an announcement on soliciting opinions from the public on the "Data Element ×" Three-Year Action Plan (2024-2026) (Draft for Comments). The opinions put forward that by the end of 2026, the breadth and depth of data element application scenarios will be greatly expanded, the multiplier effect of data elements in the field of economic development will be revealed, and more than 300 typical application scenarios with strong demonstration, high visibility and wide driving force will be created, the quality and efficiency of products and services will be significantly improved, and a number of effective data element application demonstration areas will emerge, and a group of data vendors and third-party professional service institutions with strong innovation ability and great market influence will be cultivated, and the average annual growth rate of the data industry will exceed 20% The scale of data transactions has doubled, the scale of on-site transactions has increased significantly, and the new business format that promotes the value creation of data elements has become a new driving force for economic growth, and the role of data in empowering the economy in improving quality and efficiency has become more prominent, becoming an important driving force for high-quality development. (National Development and Reform Commission website)
6) Shanghai: Individual users and unit users will continue to be supported by free special license plates for the purchase of new energy vehicles
On the evening of December 15, the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal Government forwarded the "Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Measures") formulated by the Municipal Development and Reform Commission and other five departments. In general, the previous round of policy arrangements has been continued, and free special license plate quota support will continue to be given to individual users and unit users to purchase new energy vehicles. Based on the current rapid development trend of new energy vehicles, the validity period of the "Implementation Measures" is tentatively set at one year, that is, it will come into force on January 1, 2024 and end on December 31, 2024. (Shanghai Municipal People's Government website)
7) Seven departments: support artificial intelligence enterprises to develop large models of audiovisual applications
On December 15, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of the Audiovisual Electronics Industry". Among them, it is proposed to support leading color TV enterprises to enrich the product matrix, improve the industrial chain, explore overseas markets, continue to enhance ecological dominance, and lead the development of the industry. Encourage speakers, headphones, and microphone OEMs to develop their own brands and enhance the added value of products and industry influence. Accelerate the cultivation of specialized and new "little giants" and individual champions in the manufacturing industry in the fields of commercial display, vehicle audio-visual, and audio and video. Support backbone enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and support artificial intelligence enterprises to develop large models of audio-visual applications. Promote enterprises to establish an advanced quality management system, carry out quality management ability evaluation, and encourage enterprises to climb to excellent quality. (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website)
8) Oriental Selection: Sun Dongxu was removed from the position of CEO, and Yu Minhong was concurrently served
At 11 a.m. on December 16, the Douyin account of Dongfang Selection issued the latest personnel appointment and dismissal notice. The board of directors of Oriental Selection decided that Chairman Yu Minhong concurrently served as the CEO of Oriental Selection, and removed Sun Dongxu from the position of executive director and CEO of Oriental Selection, effective immediately.
On the evening of December 16, after the personnel turmoil of Oriental Selection, Yu Minhong, the founder of New Oriental, and Dong Yuhui appeared in the live broadcast room together. Yu Minhong said that Dong Yuhui has been on vacation in Xi'an for the past two days, and there are rumors that he is leaving, but there is no such thing. There may have been someone looking for him, but he didn't accept it, didn't meet, and didn't answer the phone. He never spoke to anyone about leaving Oriental Selection. He is very passionate about Oriental Selection and the communication between us is very smooth.
Guojin Securities
The Fed "ER" is on schedule, but it is not advisable to overtrade the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.
Bullish on the sector:
1) Gold: Grasp the allocation opportunity, wait for the catalyst, and grasp the opportunity to allocate the dip now;
2) U.S. Treasuries: Medium to long-term allocation value;
3) A-share growth (especially pharmaceutical) + Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Technology.
Zheshang Securities
The spring turmoil will gradually usher in the first half, characterized by the slow rise of the index, but the leading stocks represented by AI computing power, data, applications, and end-side hardware continue to expand.
Bullish on the sector:
1) Artificial intelligence: pay attention to the leading configuration of computing power, data, applications, end-side hardware and other links;
2) TMT sector;
3) Low-valuation sectors represented by high dividends.
West China plate
The acceleration of sector rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature, and the large-cap style may have a short-term equilibrium due to the relative valuation comparison, but the pricing logic of large-scale style switching is not yet solid.
Bullish on the sector:
1) Sectors with cash flows, low valuations;
2) Sectors that benefit from industry catalysis and improved policy expectations: such as Huawei's industrial chain, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals.
Haitong Securities
In 2024, the macro and micro fundamentals are expected to continue to repair, and the growth of the white horse may be dominant.
Bullish on the sector:
1) In its growth, Baima attaches great importance to the hard technology manufacturing represented by electronics, and attaches importance to the three major fields of electronics, digital infrastructure and AI application;
2) Baima Growth should also pay attention to medicine, and the valuation and fund allocation of medicine are still at a low level in the short term;
3) If there is a surprise in the market, the industry may come from the financial weighted sector, and pay attention to the phased performance of the weighted sectors such as banks and brokerages.
Shenwan Hongyuan
The first quarter of 2024 may be a window for multiple important meetings to be overlayed, and stable growth and reform policies are expected to be implemented in a concentrated manner, which may become a clue for an effective rebound in A-shares.
Bullish on the sector:
1) Huawei Chain;
2) export chains and new multinationals, new consumption;
3) Generalized "medium and special assessment".
(Disclaimer: The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.) Investors act accordingly at their own risk)
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