On December 15, Li Ning, CEO of Junshi Biosciences, said at the SSE 2024 Investment Research Forum and Best Analyst Award Ceremony that on the whole, due to the relative stability of medical demand, the pharmaceutical industry is relatively less affected by the macroeconomic cycle, and it can be said that it will be an eternal sunrise industry. But at the industry level, it does have its own development cycle. In the next 3-5 years, the biomedical industry, especially in the field of innovative drugs, will show a trend of "ice and fire".
"On the one hand, we can see that domestic pharmaceutical companies are actively going overseas. Since the beginning of this year, a number of innovative drugs have been approved by the US FDA or the EU EMA, including Junshi Biosciences' toripalimab. This anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody was approved for marketing in the United States at the end of October as the first innovative biologic drug independently developed and produced by the mainland. In addition, the licensing of domestic and foreign drug rights and interests is also very active, and there have been three cross-border license-outs in the past week, with an unprecedented amount of transaction amount, and even one is comparable to the valuation of the company itself. Li Ning said. 、
"On the other hand, we also see the 'ice' side. Among them, there are factors such as drug prices, as well as the involution problem caused by a large number of homogeneous developments, and many companies and products are going through a difficult stage. In the next few years, some products that cannot be rolled may face the possibility of being eliminated by the market. Li Ning said bluntly.
Panoramic review of the biomedical industry chain: China has become the world's largest producer of chemical preparations
The upstream of biomedicine is Chinese herbal medicines, APIs, pharmaceutical intermediates, pharmaceutical excipients, culture media, biological materials, medical equipment, etc.; The midstream includes all kinds of biological drugs, chemical drugs, and traditional Chinese medicines; Downstream drugs flow to various offline channels and online channels, and finally reach the hands of end consumers. At present, China has become a major producer and exporter of chemical APIs in the world, and is also the world's largest producer of chemical preparations.
Competitive Trend: "The Strong Will Always Be Strong"
In the future, the global biopharmaceutical industry will have the development trend of intensifying global competition, further improving market concentration, accelerating the industrial cluster effect, and highly coordinated industrial division of labor.
Yu Jianlin, managing partner of Gaotejia Investment, said that the global biopharmaceutical industry is in the bottoming stage, and generally after the peak in a cycle, it will experience 3-5 years of bottoming. For China, the bottoming process may be longer. Despite this, the size of China's medical and health consumer group and national strategic planning and policy reforms all indicate that biomedicine will remain an unparalleled golden investment track in the next 10 years.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "2023-2028 Analysis Report on the Construction and Operation Status and Investment Prospects of Biomedical Industrial Parks at Home and Abroad" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute
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