One of the biggest stakeholders in Canadian real estate has just made some New Year's predictions for the Toronto market that are very different from those of its competitors.
By the end of 2024, Toronto will actually see a significant increase in home prices and become the largest increase in home prices in Canada.
Source: blogTo
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), property companies RE/MAX and Zoocasa have called for more of a buyer's market in the future as average home prices fall in Toronto and the rest of Canada in the coming months, but Royal LePage predicts the opposite.
Source: X
Royal LePage wrote in its new housing outlook on Thursday (14 December): "Canadians are likely to see the housing market return to normal in 2024. ”
"House prices are expected to rise in all major markets across the country next year...... The first two quarters saw smaller quarterly gains, and the second half of the year saw larger gains. ”
图源：royallepage
Royal LePage president and chief executive officer Phil Soper said the factors driving this shift would be interest rate cuts in the second half of the coming year, as well as a public adjustment to generally higher interest rates, acknowledging that "the era of ultra-low interest rates is over".
Royal LePage's forecast is based on the Bank of Canada's forecast that it has ended its rate hike campaign and that the key lending rate will stabilize at 5% by the first half of 2024. The central bank is expected to start cutting interest rates modestly in late summer or autumn next year. At the same time, several major financial institutions have begun to offer fixed-rate mortgage discounts.
This is in contrast to other newly released projections that the impact of this year's shocking interest rate spike will continue into 2024, although some agree that pricing will "rise rapidly" after buyers gradually recover and show renewed interest.
图源：royallepage
Unlike other companies, though, Royal LePage expects the national average home price to rise from the beginning of 2024, and that increase will only intensify over time.
In the Greater Toronto Area, the cost of real estate will rise more than in almost all other domestic cities. Total home prices are expected to increase by 6.0% year-over-year to $1,198,012 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to rise by 7.0% to $1,481,950, while the median price of an apartment is expected to rise by 5.0% to $754,845.
Compared to median prices across Canada, the company said median prices will be up 3.3% in the first quarter compared to the same quarter in 2023 (up 0.5% from the current quarter).
After that, they expect Q2 growth of 0.2% YoY, QoQ growth of 0.9%, Q3 Q3 growth of 3.3% YoY, QoQ growth of 2.3%, Q3 growth of 5.5% YoY, QoQ growth of 1.7%. By the last quarter, the sale price of a standard home in Canada was $843,684.
"According to this forecast, by the end of next year, house prices will largely recover to the peak of the pandemic reached in the first quarter of 2022. ”
Source: X
The brand's experts expect that the only major city in Canada that surpasses the Greater Toronto Area in terms of property price increases is Calgary, where the average home price will rise by 8% in the second half of 2024. But the typical home price in Calgary is only $711,612 CAD, which is only 60% of the price of a home in Toronto.
Vancouver will continue to maintain its position as the most expensive city in Canada to buy a home, although its average price will only rise by 3% by the end of next year.