Detailed explanation of November macroeconomic data: consumption fell short of expectations, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment accelerated
With the continuous emergence of the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the low base effect, the main production and demand indicators showed a steady and rising trend in November.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 15, the total retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 10.1 percent year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points faster than that in October, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.6 percent year-on-year, 2.0 percentage points faster than October. In 1~11 months, the national fixed asset investment rose by 2.9% year-on-year, and the increase was the same as that in 1~10 months.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 15th that the national economy rebounded in November, and the indicators of industry, service, consumption and exports continued to improve, and the main expected goals of the annual development are expected to be completed well. Although the current external environment is becoming more complex, severe, and uncertain, on the whole, the favorable conditions for the development of the mainland are stronger than the unfavorable factors.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that under the continuous force of the steady growth policy, especially under the significant downward influence of the base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of most macro data such as consumption and industrial production in November rose sharply, excluding the low base effect, and the actual economic recovery trend in the month was relatively stable. Following the significant force of fiscal policy in October, the scale of social financing will continue to be in a state of high growth before the end of the year, and all localities will also accelerate the physical workload of major projects, and macro policies will continue to work hard in the direction of steady growth, and the economy will continue to be stable and upward in the fourth quarter.
Consumption growth was slower than expected
Driven by Singles' Day and a low base, the total retail sales of consumer goods accelerated year-on-year in November and declined month-on-month.
According to the data, in November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,250.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.06 percent. From the perspective of the two-year average growth rate, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.9% in November, down 1.7 percentage points from October, which means that after excluding the impact of the base, the recovery of consumption has slowed down.
Consumption growth was slower than expected. Before the release of the data, economists participating in the CBN chief survey predicted an average year-on-year growth rate of 12.12% for the total retail sales of consumer goods in November, an increase of 4.52 percentage points from the previous month's 7.6% announced value.
The data shows that the retail sales of services in January ~ November increased by 19.5% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that from January to October. According to Liu Aihua's analysis, the rapid growth of service consumption in recent years is mainly determined by the current development stage of the mainland, which is the embodiment of the upgrading of the consumption structure. At present, the per capita GDP of the mainland exceeds 12,000 US dollars, and it is in a period of rapid upgrading of residents' consumption structure. From the perspective of consumption patterns, the proportion of service consumption has rebounded, and the demand for entertainment, information and medical care has increased significantly.
Liu Xiangdong, chief analyst of Dongyuan Investment, analyzed that after the epidemic, residents' employment and income are gradually improving, and some important changes have taken place in the consumption mentality. The low base of consumption under the epidemic last year, the strong resilience of consumption of rigid demand categories, the high growth of automobile consumption, and the high popularity of service consumption such as eating, traveling, and playing all played an important role in supporting the consumption data in November.
Wang Qing believes that in the context of a significantly lower base, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero in November was less than expected, reflecting that the current consumption recovery is still slow. The main reason behind this is that the current economic recovery process is relatively tortuous, which has brought certain pressure to the recovery of residents' income growth, and at the same time, the "scarring effect" of the epidemic and the continued downturn in the real estate market are not conducive to the recovery of residents' consumer confidence. However, in the past two months, driven by policy support and car company promotions, automobile sales have accelerated significantly, which has played a certain supporting role in overall commodity consumption, and also reflects that the policy can play a positive role in promoting consumption, and there is still a lot of policy space in this regard in the future.
Manufacturing investment rose wider
In terms of investment, in January ~ November, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 460814 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the same as that from January to October. By sector, infrastructure investment increased by 5.8 percent year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.3 percent, and real estate development investment decreased by 9.4 percent. In November, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.26% month-on-month.
Infrastructure investment in January ~ November increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from January ~ October, 2.9 percentage points higher than the total investment, and drove the growth of all investment by 1.3 points.
Liu Aihua analyzed that from the perspective of infrastructure investment in 1~11 months, there are two main characteristics: first, the investment in people's livelihood to make up for shortcomings continues to maintain rapid growth. In 1~11 months, the investment in the railway transportation industry increased by 21.5%, the investment in the water transportation industry increased by 22%, and the investment in the water conservancy management industry increased by 5.2%, all of which maintained rapid growth.
Second, the construction progress of infrastructure projects in some areas has been accelerated. Judging from the monitoring data, the post-disaster reconstruction projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the northeast region continue to advance, driving the investment in infrastructure industries such as road reconstruction, pipe network repair, and water conservancy construction in these areas to maintain rapid growth.
Liu Aihua said that the list of additional treasury bond projects issued recently has been issued one after another, and with the acceleration of the allocation and use of funds, the physical workload has been accelerated, which is conducive to releasing the potential and space in the field of infrastructure and promoting the steady and rapid growth of infrastructure investment in the next stage.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Institute of Finance and Credit Technology, believes that the additional issuance of treasury bonds will form a guarantee for infrastructure investment funds during the year, but there is a time lag from the issuance of treasury bonds to use, coupled with the downturn in the land market and the constraints of resolving hidden debt risks cannot be ignored, and it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will continue to decline.
In terms of manufacturing investment, in 1~11 months, manufacturing investment rose by 6.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January to October. Wu Chaoming said that the resilience of the manufacturing industry is mainly due to policy and financial support, and the high growth of investment in high-tech and equipment renovation in the future will still have a certain degree of sustainability.
Industrial growth exceeded expectations
In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.6 percent year-on-year, 2.0 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.87 percent month-on-month. In terms of the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 3.9 percent year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.7 percent, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 9.9 percent.
Liu Xiangdong analyzed that the performance of the domestic industrial economy exceeded market expectations, mainly due to two reasons: first, the recent fiscal expenditure superimposed on the low level of the real estate chain stabilized, and the upstream production continued to strengthen and reached a high level during the year;
Wang Qing said that on the whole, the faster than expected increase in industrial production in November was mainly due to the low base, the recovery of exports, the increase in production in key industries such as automobiles, and the gradual release of the pull effect of the steady growth policy on the demand side. However, under the current situation that real estate investment and consumption are still weak, industrial enterprises are still facing constraints of insufficient demand and unstable expectations for the expansion of production. With the continuous efforts of macro policies to stabilize growth, the gradual recovery of the demand side will continue, coupled with the further sinking of the production base in December last year, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in December is expected to further accelerate.
However, from the perspective of leading indicators, the manufacturing PMI in November was 49.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and fell again below the boom and wither line.
Liu Aihua said that this is related to the fact that some manufacturing industries are currently entering the traditional off-season, and at the same time, it is related to the lack of market demand. In November, the manufacturing PMI fell slightly, especially the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the lack of market demand is still the primary difficulty facing the recovery and development of the manufacturing industry, and the foundation for the recovery of the manufacturing industry still needs to be consolidated. In the next stage, it is necessary to organically combine the expansion of domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform, promote industrial upgrading and development with scientific and technological innovation, lead new demand with high-quality supply, and promote the manufacturing industry to achieve higher-quality development.