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Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

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Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?
Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

Writing 

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Yin Xiaolin

Editor-in-charge

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Shi Yang

In 1969, a Beijing teenager "went to the mountains and countryside" to the Gobi Desert in Inner Mongolia, with the task of "reclaiming the border and repairing the earth". There he worked day and night digging ditches, cutting reeds on the ice in winters of minus 20 degrees Celsius, often starving. But he also hid in the stove where he cooked pig food and read anything he could find: an aviation magazine, Marx's "The Civil War in France" and even a manual on pesticides when there were no books to read.

This studious spirit, together with his courage and stubbornness, constitutes the spiritual core of this young man, allowing him to pass through the darkness and reflexively change his fate in an era when his fate cannot be decided.

Six years later, the Gobi educated youth resumed his studies after several setbacks, entered the Beijing Institute of Foreign Trade (now the University of International Business and Economics), and in 1980 became one of the first batch of American students in the People's Republic of China, under the supervision of Yellen, who later became chairman of the Federal Reserve. Later, he became famous for leading Newbridge Capital in the acquisition of First Bank of Korea and Shenzhen Development Bank, and was hailed as the "King of PE" by Fortune magazine.

This Gobi youth is Shan Weijian. Today, he leads PAG as one of Asia's largest private equity funds, with more than US$50 billion in assets under management.

This "professor-type dealmaker" has published his second book in China, "Money Game", which reveals a landmark transaction from the perspective of a first-hand person. During the 1998 Asian financial crisis, Shan led his team to negotiate with the South Korean government for 15 months of arduous negotiations, and finally acquired control of the First Bank of Korea for $500 million, which was sold to Standard Chartered Bank for $3.3 billion five years later.

He is one of the few financial hunters who has not only survived the crisis, but has succeeded in digging gold. Today, at the end of a big cycle, people don't know how the new cycle will come, but Shan Weijian, who is well versed in the rhythm of the market, may be ready to make a move at any time - buy at a low point, transform the value, and wait for the multi-cycle resonance to rise.

The judgment and tenacity to get out of the Gobi accompanied him through every no-man's land in the future, and it is still ongoing.

Awake to be able to speak in writing

Shan Weijian has an increasingly precious desire for expression.

A few years ago, he wrote a memoir called "Out of the Gobi", which tells the story of his early life. The story ends with "The Ivy Professor". After graduating with a Ph.D., Shan briefly worked at the World Bank, then taught at Wharton for six years before joining JPMorgan Chase in the spring of 1993, where he began his career as a financier and investor.

The timeline of the second book "Money Game" is a continuation of "Out of the Gobi" and extends backwards. Lawrence Lau, former president of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that the revival of First Bank of Korea is a classic case of private equity investment operations, and he has begun to look forward to a sequel to "Money Game". After his success in South Korea, Shan Weijian turned his investment direction to China and led the team to acquire Shenzhen Development Bank.

Why does a legendary investor love to write books? The private equity fund industry has been around for more than 30 years. In the United States, private equity funds control more than twice as many companies as all publicly traded companies. The industry has been shrouded in mystery, and no insider has ever told the story of a major investment in detail.

The most famous case in modern times is KKR's $25 billion acquisition of RJR Nabisco in 1988. Two reporters from the Wall Street Journal followed the market-stirring event and published "The Barbarian at the Door." The story is very popular, but few people know that in the end, KKR not only did not make money, but also lost a lot. Most of the books are either from an outsider's point of view, or only talk about the acquisition process, but do not deal with what was done after the acquisition and how to exit.

There is a saying in the financial world, "Wealth is like a mushroom, growing in the shadows." But Shan Weijian feels that this sentence is "nonsense", because towering trees can only grow in the sun, what are mushrooms?

It's not that no one wants to write, it's just that writing and investing are two different things. And he happened to have taught, had a background in writing, and had material and insider information, so he wrote.

"I am nothing more than 'the one who awakens and can speak'. Shan Weijian said. Ouyang Xiu wrote in "The Drunkard Pavilion", "Drunk can have fun with it, and those who wake up can talk about it are too guarded", which means that I go to the mountains and rivers with everyone, eat, drink and have fun, but I am slightly different from others, that is, I can be drunk and happy, and I can be awake and write with words.

Sober and resolute like Shan Weijian, he naturally has the Xi of keeping a diary. He humbly claims that his diary is just a "journal", but it is these "journals" that allow him to recall all kinds of details. "Money Game" is full of details, including the expressions of the characters and the weather at the time. For example, he described Lee Hyun-jae, chairman of the South Korean Financial Supervisory Commission, as not tall, with a clear face, looking through glasses, a serious but not stern gaze, confident and full of questions. He even noticed a brightly colored Chinese painting on the wall of a restaurant at an informal lunch.

It seems that investment is more like an intermediary for Shan Weijian to maintain a close relationship with the outside world and obtain huge returns, but knowledge is his self-salvation, so reading and writing are throughout.

"I used to read some books when I was farming in the Gobi, not because I worked hard, but because I was curious. The fact that I was able to go to school and get an education after the Cultural Revolution had a lot to do with the curiosity that I had read in Inner Mongolia. ”

In the Gobi Desert, where no grass grows, Shan Weijian is full of curiosity about the world, and as long as it is a book, he is willing to read it. In one interview, he joked, "I've read a lot of pesticide manuals. If you have a pest problem there, I can help you with it. ”

Shan Weijian has been running 10 kilometers every day. This seemingly boring exercise gave him a lot of time to think and listen to books. Shan Weijian often thought: "If I can have such good conditions when I am a teenager, how much knowledge will I accumulate." Now if you run for an hour, you can listen to a book for an hour, and the conditions are too good. ”

Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

◎In 1990, Shan Weijian was in the office of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Use the yang to win the trust of others

Shan Weijian's book has a calm and moving narrative. This style of simplicity and sincerity, which does not skimp on details, may be part of his systematic "yang strategy".

In the Gobi Desert, where almost nothing grows, a frail 15-year-old boy has a narrow encounter with the ruthless real world. If he wanted to drink a cup of hot water in the middle of the night when his stomach was writhing and his stomach was writhing, he had to poke open the ice outside the reed shed, find an iron basin and firewood, and then find a way to make a fire in the freezing cold of the night. The young man who has fought against nature and the desert of the times may have long remembered that he can only pit himself.

On the day before the New Year in 1999, Shan's team signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the South Korean government to exclusively acquire First Bank of Korea. But since then, the South Korean government has suddenly "changed generals", and Shan Weijian must build trust with the new negotiating team from the ground up. The other side put on a rejecting face, as if the Memorandum of Consensus did not exist.

Shan Weijian realized that in order to gain the trust of the other party, the problem of information asymmetry must be solved. He made a bold suggestion to share his financial model with the other party.

It is unheard of for a negotiating party to voluntarily reveal its plan to the counterparty, just as it is unheard of to present a battle plan to the enemy and the enemy in a war. "Why do I think so? I think transparency can win the trust of the other side, and when the other party sees our model, they know that every suggestion we make is as fair and reasonable as possible, and there is no attempt to take advantage of others. In a sense, Shan Weijian's book is also so amazingly frank.

Shan Weijian admired his boss and senior partner Poundman during his time at Xinqiao. He believes that Poundman is a master negotiator because he always leaves something for his opponent. Shimbashi took the initiative to give the South Korean government a lot of preferential conditions.

"If you want to do a good negotiation, you have to put yourself in the other person's shoes, how he thinks about the problem, what he needs to get, whether what he wants and what you need can overlap, if the needs of the two parties do not overlap at all, simply don't talk about it, it is impossible to negotiate. Shan Weijian said, "The most important way to successfully negotiate is to try to meet the other party's requirements without harming one's own interests, or without harming one's own interests a lot." ”

When it comes to non-core areas of the negotiating objectives, how to compromise is more important than refusing to compromise. Shan Weijian knows that the key to gaining trust is to treat people with sincerity, and the most important thing is to let the other party feel that you are hiding a lot of things. "The only way is to be more transparent, more open, more open, and you have to be true to your word. During the negotiations, I said that as long as I say something, I will believe it and do it. ”

More often, the opponent will not directly express his worries and demands, and Shan Weijian's way of dealing with it is pondering. "Ponder the psychology of others through words and words. Some people don't say a word, so you have to wonder why they don't say a word. It may not be able to figure it out for a long time, but you have to be patient. There is no secret. It's like falling in love, pondering each other. ”

Crucial in this process is the identification of key decision-makers and opinion leaders. Shan Weijian likes to read history and has been following the Middle East for decades. One year he went to Jerusalem and met with Israel's Prime Minister Shimon Peres. In 1993, as Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, he personally negotiated the signing of the Oslo Peace Agreement between Israel and Palestine. However, Israeli right-wingers were dissatisfied with this and assassinated then-President Rabin, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict never stopped.

Shan Weijian asked Peres: If Rabin had not been assassinated, would there have been peace in the Middle East a long time ago? Pesley did not answer the question directly, but said: You know that in any negotiation, it is not the most difficult to negotiate with your opponent, but the most difficult thing is to negotiate with your own people. It is very difficult for both Israel and Palestine to convince the left, center, and right within themselves to reach a consensus.

"There will be different opinions in any negotiation, and as a negotiator, you have to consider everyone's needs, and the easiest way is to have a core decision-maker on the other side of the negotiation, and you can just find a way to talk to him. The hardest part is that there is a group of people in the opponent making decisions, and it is very difficult to convince everyone. Shan Weijian said, "You see what I told in "Money Game", the whole negotiation process has changed from talking with a group of people to talking with one person. Too many people will disagree. ”

Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

◎On December 31, 1998, a press conference was held after the signing of the Memorandum of Consensus between the Korean government and Sinbashi. Source: "Money Game"

So lonely but not lonely

Shan Weijian once recalled in "Out of the Gobi" how he felt when he missed the opportunity to go to university: "That night, I left the barracks and ran into the wilderness, it was pitch black all around, there was no moon and no stars, I kept running wildly, and my face was full of tears...... Finally, in a place where no one could hear me, I began to cry out and cry into the night, heartbreaking, desperate and sad, until my voice was dumb. I went back late that night, but already felt better. Life has to go on, and the future is just around the corner. I vowed not to let myself down. I'm going to get back together and keep trying. ”

In contrast, in the time-space background of "Money Game", Shan Weijian fought a big victory, but the process was also full of setbacks. In English, the Latin etymology of negotiate, neogtium, is a combination of neg "not" and otium "ease", which literally means not at ease. The process of a large-scale cross-border negotiation is even more ups and downs, and several times when it seems that the great work is about to be completed, it suddenly becomes a step forward and a retreat.

Shan Weijian recalled that at one point he felt that an agreement was within reach, but a key intermediary called and said, "We have a problem." Shan Weijian remembered that after the major failure of the American moon landing spacecraft "Apollo", when his life was hanging by a thread, the captain reported to the ground: "Houston, we have encountered a problem." ”

Sometimes, during the holidays, Shan Weijian was on vacation with his family, but due to temporary problems with the project, he had to participate in a conference call in the conference room of the hotel's business center.

"Rejoicing too early" is extremely emotional hurtful, when the good mood is gone, how to recover quickly?" I have a hard time answering this question, do you say you just give up? Everyone's style is different. It's hard to have smooth sailing in anything, and if you give up at the slightest setback, you won't get anywhere. ”

He wasn't resigned to the drama of the ups and downs, but he knew they were inevitable.

"It's not that you want to happen less, of course I don't want to have extreme disappointment, I always want to have extreme surprises, but this is not something that people can hope for and predict, but it will happen, and you must be Xi used to it. You can't take it lightly when it's going well, and you can't be discouraged when it's not going well, you must do your best. Shan Weijian said.

When the negotiations were deadlocked, Shan Weijian went to the United States to attend the company's annual meeting. Many colleagues questioned why they had not given up on the First Bank of Korea deal. In everyone's opinion, this acquisition has been delayed for so long, there is little hope of success, and the opportunity cost is high, because there is no time to take care of it. In the investment industry, it is a virtue to "fight if you win, and leave if you can't win", and people who love war often miss opportunities. These criticisms are very reasonable, and Shan Weijian himself has doubts, but he still feels that this project is of great significance, and that opportunities are not available, and as long as there is a glimmer of hope, he will not give up.

Do you feel lonely when you persist alone? Shan Weijian's answer is that he has never thought about the question like this, "If you don't put yourself high, you won't be lonely." Shan Weijian's two books totaling more than 400,000 words, and it is true that the word "loneliness" cannot be found.

He considers himself an absolute optimistic person and nothing will make him pessimistic. His philosophy in life is to always be ready, "To do everything to the extreme, that is to prepare." ”

Decades ago, in order to gain an advantage in the mass recommendation of workers, peasants, and military college students, Shan Weijian realized that he had to make a wide range of popularity. At that time, in the company, the most eye-catching thing was the ball game. He couldn't play basketball, he couldn't play volleyball well, but he "figured" an opportunity. He wrote to his father asking for a copy of the volleyball rules book to be sent home and to study carefully. One day, before the start of the volleyball game, he volunteered to be a referee. "At first, everyone looked at me and was skeptical, afraid that I didn't understand the rules, but as soon as I kicked off, my professionalism was revealed." After that, once there was a more formal match, someone asked him to be a referee. The men and women of the whole company got to know him, and a little trust and goodwill arose from this.

For a man who has fought his way out of the Gobi, it may be neither optimism nor pessimism, but pragmatism plus long-termism.

Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

◎In the harsh winter season, Shan Weijian cut reeds on the frozen lake of the Gobi

"Mr. Key" trusts collective decision-making

Until now, Shan Weijian doesn't like to be a behind-the-scenes figure who is praised on the altar, he is a "talented" and knows how important the feeling of the first line is.

This is also the reason why many people felt that it was time to give up during the negotiations to acquire First Bank of Korea, but Shan Weijian persevered. "I'm on the front line, so I know there's a silver lining. The person sitting in the back may not have this perception. This is like fighting a war, only those who are on the front line can judge whether the battle should be fought or not. ”

Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

◎In September 1999, Xinqiao senior partner Pang Deman sent a fax to Shan Weijian. Shan: You're completely crazy, and you're still changing words with them. Stop now. Our position is not to talk about it until the contract is signed, and that's it...... Source: "Money Game"

Shan Weijian trusts collective decision-making. He made it a rule in the PAB that a project must be unanimously approved by the IFEC, and everyone has the right of veto. "Companies where one person has the final say are the most prone to make mistakes because everyone makes mistakes. When everyone participates in the opinion, there is less chance of making mistakes. If only one person disagrees, how can there be unanimity? Either he does know more about the matter than others, there is an imbalance of information, and in the end he convinces others, or they persuade him. ”

However, Xin Qiji once said, "Seek the noble people, and decide the noble and independent", when planning, we must be involved, and when making decisions, do we still need the No. 1 position to "make decisions"? Shan Weijian believes that this sentence should distinguish between occasions.

After the Huaihai Campaign began, Chen Yi, commander and political commissar of the East China Field Army, instead took refuge in the Central Plains Field Army of Liu Deng's army, and the campaign was under the full command of Su Yu, acting commander and acting political commissar, in order to facilitate the commander-in-chief's rapid decision-making in wartime.

"In a scenario like a war, the situation is changing rapidly, and someone has to be arbitrary. If there is no commander-in-chief, there is no way to fight a war with just a staff department. But investing is different. If investment is also arbitrary, there will definitely be problems. Many investment institutions are because their bosses feel that they have turned stones into gold, and they are suddenly unlucky, causing great losses. In an investment decision, there must be a lot of people involved in the opinion, and finally convince each other. Shan Weijian said, "If you want to invest $1 billion or $5 billion in a project, if one person has the final say, he will definitely make a big mistake." ”

During the interview, Shan Weijian said one sentence several times: But that's it. Many people attribute investing and making money to their own ability and judgment. But Shan believes that the success of investment has a lot to do with luck.

"If people knew that, they would be a little more humble and not feel as if they had seen through the investment thing. Investing is always fraught with risk, judgment and experience are important, as is hard work and perseverance. But even so, chance and luck are at least 50% important. ”

Taking the exit of Tencent Music as an example, PAG's initial investment cost was US$137 million, and the final exit income was as high as US$2.607 billion, with a return on investment of 1,900%. As soon as it withdrew, Tencent Music was implicated in the liquidation of well-known investor Bill Hwang (Huang Xingguo) and plummeted.

"Did we quit in that position because we had a good judgment? But I definitely didn't expect the stock market to suffer such a big shock from last year to now. At that time, as long as you hesitate a little, you will be trapped, which cannot be counted. So luck is very important, and judging the situation is also very important. Shan Weijian said.

Shan Weijian: How to make the "white knight" who rescued Wang Jianlin profitable?

◎Early morning of December 23, 1999, negotiation room. Source: "Money Game"

Traitorous males and capable ministers

Despite making billions of dollars in profits, Shan later recalled the acquisitions of First Bank of Korea and Shenzhen Development Bank, saying, "Takeover PE is very hard, and the money earned is also hard money."

Koang, the second president appointed after Shimbashi bought the First Bank of Korea and eventually restored the bankrupt bank to its former glory, wrote in his memoirs: "I don't think there is any point in decorating the exterior of a dilapidated building. We have fundamentally rebuilt First Bank of Korea completely on our own, with no shortcuts. ”

In the process of value creation, the selection of a management team is particularly important. What Shan Weijian values most is credibility, including character and experience - whether he is very knowledgeable and how to treat people and things.

But he also admits that sometimes he looks away. "People who are very successful in one company may not be successful in another company because the environment has changed. We've had this happen to two big banks. ”

Shinbashi's first appointed president at First Bank of Korea had risk management issues. The new board of directors has established a "house rule" to avoid risk concentration, and the risk exposure to any single customer cannot exceed 100 billion won, otherwise it must be approved by the board of directors. But the management at that time not only broke the "house rules" and exposed up to 250 billion won to a chip company, Hynix, but also kept the entire board of directors in the dark.

Shan Weijian realized that people who know how to manage a good bank may not know how to manage a bad bank. The former mostly follow the existing rules, while the latter requires the establishment of a new team and a new system. "Just like people evaluate Cao Cao, the traitor of troubled times, and the capable minister of governing the world. A capable minister in a good bank must be able to become a traitor in a bad bank, otherwise he will not be able to complete the task. ”

Later, the board of directors hired a third-party law firm to independently investigate the decision-making process and the causes and consequences of Hynix's loan, and found that the main decision-maker was the president, and the chief credit officer, who had always acted conservatively, chose to follow only after thinking about the situation.

Shan Weijian's evaluation of this incident reflects a characteristic of traditional Korean culture, that is, the unconditional obedience of subordinates to superiors in the subconscious. In his view, South Korea and Japan are more deeply influenced by Confucian culture than Chinese. Taking Japan as an example, both Chinese and Japanese Confucian cultures emphasize superiority and inferiority, monarchs and ministers, fathers and sons, but a huge difference is that there is a core of Chinese Confucian culture is "benevolence".

"As long as there is no 'benevolence' in history, China will change the dynasty. But there is only one dynasty in Japan, and the imperial family has lasted for nearly two thousand years. The reason for this is that after the Confucian culture was introduced to Japan, the essence of "benevolence" was missing. The criterion of a ruler is not measured by benevolence, but position, and as long as he sits in that position, he is superior and inferior, which is absolute, not conditional. Therefore, in Japanese culture, subordinates are absolutely obedient to their superiors, but in Chinese culture, this is not the case. Shan Weijian thinks so.

He told a story that when the Sino-Soviet border was tense and people were preparing for war when the Gobi was farming, Shan Weijian's friend Li Baoquan said: "When the war starts, I will kill the company commander first, and this guy will command blindly." ”

"The Chinese think that if you have the ability, I will serve you. "Shan Weijian gave an example," Han Xin commented in front of Liu Bang that Xiang Yu was brave and benevolent, and when the soldiers were cold, they would help put on a piece of clothing, and when they were hungry, they would give them something to eat, and they would take the lead in the battle, which was not enough to succeed. He also said Liu Bang, the king, you are different, you are generous in rewarding meritorious deeds, and you are strategizing when you start a war. Of course, this is suspicious of sycophancy. However, it can also be seen from this that Chinese not only judge dignity and inferiority by position, but also depend on how capable this person is. ”

When I asked what kind of opponent he liked, Shan Weijian said that he couldn't choose his opponent, he could only adapt to his opponent. I was comforted to know that even the helmsman of a top PE couldn't choose an opponent, but I quickly realized that the premise of choosing an opponent is advanced judgment, extremely high odds, and a correspondingly large return.

From being "re-educated" in the desolate Gobi Desert at the age of 15 to becoming an internationally renowned financier, we see two qualities in Shan Weijian: sanity and bravery. It was the two that allowed him to have the determination and ability to reach the glimmer at the end of the tunnel, even in the darkest of moments.

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