With the high-profile implementation of the unmanned transportation project of Taiwan Cement Corporation Jurong Mine in 2022, and the opening of the 24-hour live broadcast of the production and operation of unmanned mining trucks by relevant technology companies to prove that their projects are not demonstrating, the country will start the commercialization of large-scale unmanned mining areas in 2023, which can be called the first year of unmanned driving in mining areas. Although the penetration rate of the unmanned driving market in mainland mining areas is extremely low, the growth rate is amazing. According to industry estimates, the unmanned mining truck market will exceed 20 billion yuan by 2025, and it can break the 100 billion mark in the future.
Like China's commercial "involution", the autonomous driving of mining areas has just entered the year when customers are willing to pay for it, and the industry has begun to enter a state of white-hot competition. In recent years, Zhongke Huituo, Cidi Zhijia, Tage Zhixing, and Yikong Zhijia have successively won the bid for unmanned pure electric mining truck orders in a number of mining areas, and have been deeply bound and cooperated with mining advantage enterprises to seize land in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places. With the in-depth development of globalization and the advancement of national strategies such as the "Belt and Road", the company has also begun to join forces with industry OEMs and central state-owned enterprises to enter overseas markets.
01 Science fiction has become a reality, and the mining area is a key scenario for the commercialization of unmanned driving
The infinite imagination of human beings has already shown driverless cars in a large number of science fiction movies, and the concept of driverless cars is no longer mysterious.
Back to 8 years ago, in 2015, a new wave of unmanned driving was set off in China, and the industry was generally optimistic that the unmanned driving scene on public roads around 2020 would be able to be commercialized. However, the unmanned driving industry has been developing for 8 years, and the technology has been continuously iteratively updated, but due to the constraints of policy, law, cost and market conditions, the commercialization of unmanned driving on public roads has been difficult to land.
However, if we shift our vision from the bustling and hurried urban roads to the sparsely populated open-pit mining areas, we will find that from the current policy support, technological maturity and market perspective, mining areas seem to be one of the easiest scenarios for unmanned driving technology to land, and are achieving large-scale commercialization:
Unmanned driving scene in a mining area
1. The mining scene is easy to implement unmanned driving technology: The transportation road in the mining area is closed, the flow of people is small, the transportation route is relatively fixed, the speed is basically less than 30km/h, and there is no license plate problem, with the maturity of 5G and V2X technology, the construction cost of the communication network suitable for automatic driving in the mining area has also been reduced year by year, and the mining area has become the best scenario for the implementation of unmanned driving technology.
2. The economic benefits of unmanned driving in mining areas are significant: For open-pit mines, the cost of mining, loading and transportation accounts for more than 50%, and the unmanned mining truck saves more than 400,000 yuan per vehicle in labor costs. A mine in Western Australia began to apply unmanned transportation on a large scale in 2012, reducing costs by 50%. Unmanned driving in mining areas can not only reduce labor costs, but also reduce the risks of mining operations and avoid economic losses such as production shutdown caused by safety accidents.
Unmanned transportation in the mining area: grasp the final link of the cost
Different landing scenarios of unmanned driving Source: Jiazi Lightyear "2023 China Intelligent Mining Industry Research Report"
At the same time, unmanned driving in mining areas can also effectively solve the long-standing problems of difficult recruitment and safety accidents in mining areas, and at the same time, the intelligence of safety supervision, production scheduling, and operation and management will also help the construction of green and safe smart mines.
02 The national policy has been strengthened, and the state has actively advocated the construction of smart mines to help unmanned driving in mining areas
First, from the national level, unmanned driving in mining areas is the only field where the landing time is clearly specified in policy. In February 2020, eight departments, including the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety, issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Intelligent Coal Mines", proposing the phased development goals of intelligent coal mines: By 2025, large-scale coal mines and coal mines with serious disasters will be basically intelligent, including open-pit coal mines to achieve intelligent continuous operation and unmanned transportation, and by 2035, all types of coal mines will be basically intelligent, and an intelligent coal mine system with intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making and automatic execution will be built.
In August 2022, the Ministry of Emergency Management and the State Mine Safety Supervision Bureau issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Mine Safety Production", which pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the research and development of key technologies for mine intelligence, and focus on breakthroughs in key technologies and equipment, including unmanned driving in auxiliary transportation links; Promote the construction of intelligent demonstration mines with no one and fewer people.
A series of national smart mine policies
Second, from the perspective of mining enterprises, mining enterprises' investment in the construction of smart mines is not only due to the requirements of national policies and safety supervision, but also because of the needs of mining enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency;
With the advancement of 5G and V2X technologies on the supply side, and the continuous increase in the country's smart mine policy, the market space for unmanned driving in mining areas will also be further opened.
Xinjiang Black Mountain Mining Area
03 On the eve of the outbreak, unmanned driving in the mining area has entered the fast lane of development, and the 100 billion market is about to open!
From a global point of view, unmanned driving in foreign mining areas has developed earlier, and it has been commercialized for more than 10 years.
Caterpillar, the world's largest manufacturer of construction machinery and mining equipment, started the research and development of unmanned mining trucks in the 1980s, and launched the world's first unmanned mining truck in 1996. In 2008, Komatsu, a well-known Japanese machinery manufacturing company, achieved commercial deployment in Chile's copper mine for the first time, and companies such as FMG Group, an Australian iron ore exporter, and Vale, a well-known Brazilian iron ore producer and exporter, have relatively mature unmanned solutions for mining areas.
Looking back at the development mileage of unmanned driving in domestic mining areas, 2018 is the year of landing for domestic enterprises to enter the game.
Due to national conditions such as differences in technical solution stages, differences in mine distribution and differences in commonly used vehicle bodies, the development of unmanned driving in mainland mining areas is later than that of foreign countries, and the domestic market has experienced four periods: initial period (2015-2018), technology research and development period (2017-2020), test operation period (2018-2021), and commercial initial period (2022-present).
Since 2018, based on the technology accumulation in the previous few years, the leading unmanned driving enterprises in mining areas in China have successively done unmanned driving tests or operations in mining areas in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Henan, Beijing and other places, and then converted them into orders.
Unlike overseas models, which are generally dominated by OEMs, most of the major domestic players are autonomous driving technology companies. Unmanned driving solution manufacturers such as the unmanned four dragons in mining areas, represented by Zhongke Huituo, Cidi Intelligent Driving, Yikong Intelligent Driving, and Tage Zhixing, have joined forces with leading commercial vehicle manufacturers such as Tongli Heavy Industry, Yutong, Sany Heavy Equipment, and Lingong to actively promote the commercialization of unmanned driving in open-pit mining areas.
The penetration rate of unmanned driving in mainland mining areas is low, and there is enough room for market development.
From the perspective of business logic, if any technology wants to be commercialized on a large scale and realize the closed loop of economic interests, it needs to be supported by a broad market. According to the data of 2020, the annual transportation scale of open-pit coal, sand and gravel mines and iron ore in the mainland is 33.6 billion yuan, 188 billion yuan and 10.4 billion yuan respectively, and the potential market space for unmanned driving is 232 billion yuan per year. According to industry estimates, the scale of the unmanned driving industry in the mining area in 2021 will be less than 400 million yuan, but the compound growth rate will exceed 100% in recent years, and it will exceed 20 billion yuan in 2025, and it can break the 100 billion mark in the future. Unmanned driving in mining areas is obviously on the fast track of rapid development.
04 Market competition pattern, the development status and competition pattern of unmanned driving in domestic mining areas
Map of unmanned driving industry chain in mining area
The leading companies are still mainly marketed in the domestic market
Since the development of the industry, driverless storytelling has not attracted the attention of capital, and the key lies in large-scale commercialization. At present, the mainland's leading unmanned mining companies, such as Zhongke Huituo, Cidi Zhijia, Tage Zhixing, and Yikong Zhijia, have successively won the bid for a number of unmanned pure electric mining truck orders in mining areas in recent years, realizing commercialization, has opened the domestic market, and began to derive two business models, the autonomous driving company represented by Cidi Zhijia insists on being an equipment supplier, selling "vehicle + system" to enter the industry, The more radical companies represented by Yikong Intelligent Driving began to enter the game, purchased and changed cars with their own capital, and began to explore a new business model of "plan + operation", while the companies in the second camp are still in the technology research and development period or the test operation period, and are facing greater survival pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the unmanned driving market in mining areas will be dominated by China, and the entire industry is already on the eve of the outbreak of large-scale trial operation.
In terms of specific product definitions, there are "Yugong YUGONG" of Zhongke Huituo, "Yuan Mine" of Xidi Zhijia, "Wild Valley" of Tage Zhixing and so on. In the early stage, unmanned driving solution manufacturers in mining areas generally cooperate with mining areas to attract repurchase and expand the market by creating benchmark cases, such as Huituo Intelligent's National Energy Group Baori Hiller Project, Xidi Zhijia's Jiangsu Jurong Taiwan Cement Project, and Boonray Technology's Jiugang Xigou Mining Project.
In particular, in November 2022, 14 unmanned pure electric mining trucks in Jiangsu Jurong Tai Cement Project, led by CiDi Zhijia, have realized 7*24 hours of operation without safety personnel, realizing the normalization of "safety personnel getting off the bus" and zero accidents for 365 days of safe production, and so far in operation, a total of 560,000 kilometers have been driven and 6.5 million tons of ore have been transported.
Project site
05 With the help of capital restart, after experiencing a capital winter, leading enterprises have shown more commercial value
In recent years, the commercialization of L4 autonomous driving on the open road has been slow, resulting in layoffs, shutdowns, and a plummeting market value, resulting in a capital winter. In contrast, the commercialization of unmanned driving in mining areas has been successfully accelerated in recent years, and continuous financing has been made. With the accumulation of previous projects, the capabilities of unmanned driving manufacturers in domestic mining areas have been recognized by the market, and repurchase orders and new orders have emerged. For example, in 2023, CiDi Zhijia has won more than 100 orders for mines such as Chongqing Daye, Hubei Wuxue, and Xinjiang Montenegro in the mining truck business, with a total order volume of 280 million yuan in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate of 200%.
Financing table for unmanned head enterprises in mining areas
Among the above four leading enterprises, the financing rounds of Zhongke Huituo, Cidi Zhijia and Tage Zhixing have entered the C round, or even the C1 round, which means that the company's commercialization ability and future potential are optimistic about the capital market;
06 The road to the sea in the futureIn the future, it is an inevitable choice for unmanned manufacturers in mining areas to go to sea
There are two paths for unmanned mining manufacturers to go to sea: one is to enter the developed countries in Europe and the United States, and seize the market with higher profit margins by virtue of cost-effective products; the other is to turn to the "Belt and Road" countries, such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa and other places, and the United Nations Chinese energy companies to seize the market; at present, most of them are the second way to go to sea. But either way, the core is to build benchmark cases, build overseas channels, localize operation teams, and meet overseas legal compliance requirements to develop overseas markets.
In 2023, based on the domestic commercialization and maturity of unmanned driving in mining areas, manufacturers of unmanned driving solutions in mainland mining areas will begin to go abroad. With the in-depth development of globalization and the promotion of national strategies such as the "Belt and Road", the company will join hands with industry OEMs and central state-owned enterprises to begin to enter overseas markets.
In 2022, Zhongke Huituo and others will jointly promote Thailand's first 5G+ autonomous driving smart green mine project, and will build the first overseas project in the field of unmanned driving in China's mining area.
Mongolian coal mines
07 Technology development trend, the technical development trend of unmanned driving in mining areas
In terms of technology, the current unmanned driving solutions in domestic mining areas are mainly as follows:
1. Unmanned mine truck;
2. Intelligent cockpit (realize remote operation of excavators and other equipment);
3. Cloud management and dispatching system (unmanned middle platform system).
From the perspective of technology development trends, unmanned driving in mining areas will continue to improve technology in the following four aspects:
(1) Wire-controlled chassis technology, the size of the minecart is huge, the response time is extended, and its vehicle control technology logic is different from that of passenger cars, which requires superb design ability of wire-controlled chassis technology;
(2) Fusion perception technology: The complex and harsh environment of the mining area has high requirements for the deep integration of vision, lidar, millimeter-wave radar and other perception technologies;
(3) Cloud and big data technology, the powerful cloud scheduling capabilities, service capabilities, data collection and processing capabilities required for the realization of manned and unmanned marshalling operations in mining areas;
(4) Hardware and vehicle design technology, With the development of unmanned driving, the requirements for the next generation of on-board intelligent hardware design technology and the ability to lead the design trend of the vehicle have also increased, and manufacturers must design high-performance products and vehicles with forward-looking capabilities.
Cidi drives a new generation of unmanned pure electric mining trucks
08 Risks and Challenges, "Risks and Challenges" Faced by Unmanned Driving in Mining Areas
However, risks and opportunities coexist, and unmanned driving in mining areas also faces certain difficulties and challenges.
With the application of unmanned mine driving in more mining areas, the complexity of the scene continues to deepen, which will bring new challenges to unmanned solution manufacturers.
Challenge 1: With the expansion of the scale of applications in the future, the complexity of the scenarios will also increase significantly, and the problem of large-scale application will become more prominent, and the requirements for the mixed production and transportation of manned mining trucks and unmanned mining trucks will become higher and higher.
Challenge 2: The road conditions and complexity of domestic mining areas are different, so it brings challenges to the reliability and versatility of manufacturers' technologies.
Challenge 3: At present, there is basically only one vendor participating in major mining areas, and with the expansion of application scale, it may be necessary to solve the problem of data and application connectivity between different manufacturers' equipment.
Challenge 4: With the deepening of commercialization and the expansion of social coverage in the future, the national industry regulatory authorities will inevitably introduce clearer and higher standards of safety norms and laws and regulations for unmanned driving in mining areas.
09 Business model, "plan + operation" model still needs to be tested by the market
Source: Jiazi Light Year "2023 China Smart Mining Industry Research Report"
After years of exploration, there are two main business models for unmanned driving in the mining area: the autonomous driving company represented by Cidi Intelligent Driving insists on selling "vehicle + system" to enter the industry as an equipment supplier, and the more radical company represented by Easy Control Intelligent Driving has begun to enter the game, purchasing and changing cars with its own capital, and beginning to explore a new business model of "solution + operation";
Mode 1: Provide "solutions" to provide a full set of solutions for driverless pure electric mining trucks
Manufacturers are deeply bound to OEMs, selling driverless pure electric mining trucks, as well as providing unmanned systems and middle platforms.
Mode 2: Provide "solution + operation", set up an unmanned engineering contractor in the mining area, and participate in operation services
Manufacturers are directly involved in the operation, generally subcontracting from the operation subcontractor, and their own funds and heavy assets are invested in the purchase of fleets, participating in operation services, and easy control intelligent driving is mainly based on this model.
The advantage of the carrier model is that it is easy to get orders, and this model is easy to expand and quickly occupy territory. However, the operating profit of the mining area is extremely low, and there are many mature mining operators, and the general profit is very thin after the second package. Although technology companies have no operational experience, difficult actuarial costs, and heavy asset investment, although they can quickly win orders in the early stage, it is difficult for technology companies to truly break even, and in the long run, this is equivalent to competing for business with operators, which is difficult to sustain and needs to be tested by the market.
The equipment supplier model is relatively short in project cycle and easy to achieve commercial closed-loop, but it is faced with the need to have sufficient business capabilities to win orders, which also means that driverless transportation can really help operators save costs and earn money in order to be recognized and paid.
10 Write at the end
In 2024, manufacturers of unmanned driving solutions in mining areas will increase market expansion and implement their solutions in more large-scale mining areas to conquer cities and seize the market. However, whether it can be truly commercialized on a large scale must not only overcome the above problems and achieve real multi-marshalling operation, but also in terms of capital, especially the further help of social financing.
The industry generally believes that once large-scale commercialization is realized, it means that the replicability of the model has been verified, and when the time comes, it will naturally truly open up the 100 billion market.