Nearly 4,000 shares are red! The three major indexes of A-shares collectively closed up in the afternoon of "Jedi counterattack", and the brokerage stocks made efforts, how to lay out the market outlook?
Source: CBN, Wind, Straight Flush
Today, A-shares bottomed out and rebounded, and the "Jedi counterattack" mode was opened in the afternoon, and the brokerage sounded the horn of counterattack. Have the stocks you followed go up? Let's review today's stock market.
The three major indexes bottomed out and rebounded and collectively closed higher
Northbound funds returned significantly in the afternoon
Today (December 11), the three major indexes bottomed out and rebounded collectively to close up, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.25%, and the three major indexes fell more than 1% in early trading.
Wind data shows that overall, stocks rose more and fell less, and nearly 4,000 stocks in the two cities rose. The turnover of the two cities exceeded 900 billion yuan.
Wind data shows that northbound funds returned significantly in the afternoon, with a net sale of 3.259 billion yuan throughout the day, and a reduction of more than 10 billion yuan at one point, including a net sale of 853 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 2.406 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
The main funds continued to have a net inflow into the media, securities, computers, automobiles and other sectors at the end of the session, and a net outflow from non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, steel and other sectors.
Specific to individual stocks, Zhenshitong, Zheshang Securities, and Chinese Online received net inflows of 810 million yuan, 653 million yuan, and 575 million yuan.
In terms of net outflows, Kweichow Moutai, Tianqi Lithium, and Tianwei Video were sold off 722 million yuan, 459 million yuan, and 367 million yuan respectively.
The brokerage sector made efforts in the afternoon
The concept of multimodal AI was strong throughout the day
On the disk, multimodal AI and MR were strong throughout the day, semiconductor and brokerage stocks made efforts in the afternoon, coal, auto parts, and military stocks were active, and liquor and lithium mining stocks performed sluggishly.
Specifically, the securities sector fluctuated in the afternoon, as of the close, Zheshang Securities, Cinda Securities rose more than 6%, Hualin Securities, Caitong Securities, Pacific and other follow-ups.
On the evening of December 8, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) researched and formulated the "Provisions on Strengthening the Administration of Securities Transactions of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Draft for Comments)". From the perspective of the progress of the reform, this marks the official launch of the second phase of rate reform in the public fund industry.
The specific measures of the reform of the public fund rate are mainly reflected in four aspects: one is to reduce the commission rate of securities transactions of public funds, the second is to reduce the upper limit of the distribution ratio of securities transaction commissions, the third is to strengthen internal system constraints and external supervision constraints, and the fourth is to further optimize the content and requirements of information disclosure.
Among them, in terms of reducing the upper limit of the commission distribution ratio of securities transactions, the draft of the "Provisions" proposes to adjust the upper limit of the commission distribution ratio of equity funds from 30% to 15%. Considering the difficulty of managing the trading unit of small managers and the cost of operating the trading unit of securities firms, the upper limit of the commission distribution ratio will be maintained for managers with a management scale of less than 1 billion yuan of equity funds.
Cinda Securities pointed out that the reform of the investment side may continue to be deduced, and the reduction of the rate of wealth management institutions such as social security funds and public funds may promote the steady increase in the scale of incremental funds in the follow-up equity market. A number of conditions such as economic bottom, policy relaxation, and sufficient liquidity have been met, and the current valuation of the brokerage sector is still low, and there may be a high winning rate in the future.
In addition, on December 8, Zheshang Securities issued an announcement on the signing of the "Guodu Securities Co., Ltd. Share Transfer Framework Agreement", intending to transfer the shares of Guodu Securities held by five companies in cash, totaling about 19%.
According to the announcement, Zheshang Securities and Chongqing International Trust Co., Ltd., Tianjin Chongxin Technology Development Co., Ltd., Chongqing Jiahong Shengxin Trading Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Yuanwei Investment Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Zhongjun Investment Co., Ltd. signed the "Guodu Securities Co., Ltd. Share Transfer Framework Agreement" on December 8, and the company intends to transfer 5.2820%, 4.7170%, 3.7736%, 3.3089%, and 2.0639% of the target companies held by the above five companies in cash Shares, the final transfer ratio and other transaction plans are subject to the final transaction documents duly signed.
In total, Zheshang Securities intends to acquire about 19.1454% of the equity of Guodu Securities.
According to the information on the official website, Guodu Securities currently has no actual controller, and the largest shareholder is China Chengxin Trust Co., Ltd., with a shareholding ratio of 13.3264%. If the transaction is completed, Zheshang Securities will become the largest shareholder of Guodu Securities. For the purpose of this transaction and the impact on the company, Zheshang Securities said that the signing of the transaction framework agreement is in line with the company's strategic planning, which is conducive to the company's optimization of resource allocation, strengthening resource integration, giving full play to the company's existing business advantages and the synergy effect of Guodu Securities' business, enhancing the company's competitiveness, and there is no harm to the interests of the company and shareholders.
In this regard, Soochow Securities said that the acquisition is expected to give full play to the existing business advantages of Zheshang Securities and the synergy effect of Guodu Securities' business to enhance the company's competitiveness. If the acquisition is successful, Zheshang Securities will become the largest shareholder of Guodu Securities in one fell swoop. At the same time, the transfer of equity of Zheshang Securities is also the first securities industry merger and acquisition case after the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it "encourages securities companies to become better and stronger through mergers and acquisitions", and the current policy environment for mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry is good, and the trend of industry integration is expected to continue.
Kaiyuan Securities said that Zheshang Securities is expected to achieve a leap in scale, complement regional retail customers and enhance its asset management strength through interbank mergers and acquisitions. Following the case of Guolian + Minsheng in the industry, the industry reappears in M&A cases, and under the background of regulatory policy guidance (intensive development + supporting the good and limiting the inferior + encouraging M&A) and increasing profit differentiation in the industry, the integration of industry M&A is expected to enter an accelerated period, and it is optimistic about the theme opportunities of M&A in the brokerage sector. From an investment point of view, for the acquirer, cases with low valuation, no obvious front-running, reasonable acquisition price and good integration effect expectation are more worthy of participation, and the acquiree often has a greater winning rate due to the logic of enjoying the scarcity premium and reversal of difficulties.
The media sector rose sharply in the afternoon, with Insai Group rising more than 14%, Publishing Media, Shandong Publishing, Dragon Edition Media, Guomai Culture, Chinese Online, Yao Ji Technology, Shengtian Network, Baotong Technology, etc. soaring.
The concept of multimodal AI was strong throughout the day, Suzhou Keda 3 boards, Yunding Technology rose by the limit, Xuanya International rose by more than 10%, and Lisheng Sports and Sanshi shares followed suit.
On the news side, Google recently announced the launch of the artificial intelligence model Gemini. In contrast to existing large models on the market, Gemini was created from the ground up as a multimodal model, which means that it can summarize, manipulate, and combine different types of information, including text, code, audio, images, and video, smoothly. In terms of flexibility, it can run from the data center to mobile devices.
However, it is worth noting that after the market on the 8th, a number of multimodal concept stocks announced the risk. Suzhou Keda said that the company's KD-GPT large model is currently only tried in individual key users, which has not had a significant impact on performance, and there is still great uncertainty in the follow-up promotion. Wangda Software said that the company's current business does not involve "text automatic generation video technology", and the company's "visual networking digital intelligent platform" mentioned by the media does not involve multimodal models.
Today, the multimodal concept continues to be strong, can it lead the artificial intelligence sector to "return the king"? Zhao Dongmei of Guoyuan Securities said that the artificial intelligence market continues, and the follow-up driving force comes from the application side. Liu Chong of Shenzhen Android Investment Co., Ltd. pointed out that the artificial intelligence sector has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability remains to be seen. Song Zhenghao of Orient Securities believes that multimodality accounts for a small amount of AI, and the probability of rotation in subdivision is greater.
According to CITIC Securities, the Gemini model, as the first multimodal model released by Google and the world, is the first model to surpass human experts in terms of performance on MMLU. The model is divided into three versions: Gemini Ultra, Gemini Pro, and Gemini Nano according to the size, and supports testing and running in the cloud and at the edge. At the same time, Google simultaneously released the latest version of the computing chip TPU v5p, which is 2.3 times more cost-effective than the previous generation TPU v4. The official release of the multimodal Gemini model can broaden the expansion of application scenarios on the one hand, and bring continuous upgrading of computing power requirements on the other hand. We continue to be optimistic about the prospects of the AI industry in the future, and the release of models such as GPT-5 will also bring more catalysts.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that with the rapid emergence of multimodal models such as Gen-2, Pika1.0, Gemini, etc., the trend of multimodal global large models is becoming increasingly significant, which is expected to accelerate the application of AIGC. Looking forward to the future, it is recommended to pay attention to the four major directions of game, publishing, film and television, and advertising and marketing, which are the main positions of AI applications.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that with the upgrade and iteration of ChatGPT, it has multimodal capabilities, as well as the native multimodal capabilities shown by Gemini. The agency believes that the wave of AI large models has entered a new stage, that is, from large language models to multimodal models. Recently, major changes and progress have continued to be made in the direction of AI large models, AI applications, computing power chips and other industries, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in the direction of the AI industry. Continue to recommend the high-quality targets that will benefit from the core of AI computing power and the subdivision track direction with a good high-prosperity pattern:
(1) AI and digital economy are still the main line, and in the future, it is necessary to focus on the core beneficiary targets: ICT equipment, optical modules/optical chips, computing power leasing, PCB, IDC/liquid cooling and heat dissipation, GPT applications, telecom operators (digital economy + data elements + industrial Internet) and other related companies are expected to usher in new opportunities. (2) Satellite Internet, "space-ground integration" is the key direction of 6G, and it is recommended to pay attention to the subdivisions of Tongdao Yao. (3) Haifeng will continue to be prosperous in the next few years, with high submarine cable barriers & good pattern & relatively low valuation, and investment opportunities are highlighted.
The precious metals sector was green across the board, and CICC Gold, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold weakened.
How to lay out the market outlook?
CITIC Securities believes that with the in-depth promotion of new industrialization and carbon neutrality in the mainland, new energy vehicles, charging piles, servers/data centers, industrial motors and other fields are showing a trend of development in the direction of high power, and related industries have changed from a simple wave of new energy to a "qualitative change" in performance upgrades.
BOC Securities believes that the market is expected to recover from the previous weak sentiment. Recently, the AI field has once again entered a period of intensive overseas mapping catalysis, the global computing power cycle tends to rise, and the market sentiment disturbance factors in the early stage have eased, and the TMT sector is expected to be catalyzed.
Huaan Securities analysis said that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the current A-shares, and there are still more structural opportunities. In the first week of December, the GEM index adjusted slightly, mainly catalyzed by the application side and the large model, media, communications, and computers ranked among the top three, which supported the GEM index and the growth style index. While building materials, defense and military industry, light manufacturing and real estate did not perform well this week. In terms of follow-up allocation, the changes that need to be taken into account are that although TMT rose first week last week, the volatility was particularly violent, and there were many jumps in the top of the rise or decline, and at the same time, TMT has risen significantly since the beginning of November, which may be a sign of the peak of the market, so from a short-term perspective, the market style may be switched, and finance is a good direction. In addition, the medium- to long-term certainty direction can also be maintained.
GF Securities proposes to observe the marginal improvement of demand along the three "supply side" clues, and allocate: supply clearance + marginal demand recovery varieties (consumer electronics chain, semiconductor design, innovative drugs, robots); China's advantageous manufacturing + the United States is expected to replenish the inventory to boost external demand (textiles, chemical raw materials, electronic components); "pan-AI + Huawei" a new round of technology supply to create demand (intelligent driving, XR, radio frequency, satellite communications).
Editor on duty: Su Xiao
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