Tonight's big event! The expectation of RRR and interest rate cuts is rising again, and A-shares closed up, why did CICC soar again after refuting the rumors

I have to admire the vitality of the A-share theme speculation, I thought that the theme speculation would come to an end after the wind of "Dragon Flying Phoenix Dance" was extinguished last week, but I didn't expect that it was just a pit for the funds to be moved. A extremely fragmented ecology has not been changed, the market is rewarding the good theme - buy to make money speculation, the rumors of the merger of the gold galaxy in the morning made CICC, the bank hit the limit, at noon Huina Technology sent a computing power service price increase information directly 20cm limit, and triggered a surge in the computing power leasing sector.

The market sentiment is not bad, but active funds are more keen to make money, short money, and do not pay attention to whether these news really bring value growth to listed companies and whether they match the stock price. In the first half of the year, there was a reduction in holdings that could sanction speculation, and now it is not allowed to reduce holdings, and the management's care for the market has inadvertently made the speculation more unscrupulous.

At the beginning of November, as the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, PMI and other data fell short of expectations, the market expected that the Federal Reserve may have completed the process of raising interest rates, the yield of the U.S. 10 bonds plummeted, and the global stock market ushered in a major counteroffensive. At that time, we, like many institutions in the market, had a judgment, that is, the peak and fall of the US 10 bond yield will make foreign capital return to inflow, so that the dilemma of institutional prisoners is expected to be solved, and the problem of blood loss of institutional heavy stocks is expected to be alleviated.

But now it seems that this judgment has "died" halfway, as of now, the institution still has no voice, the capital holds the pricing power, the theme speculation is popular, and the price of the dog is still down. The most direct reason for this is the lack of incremental funds, foreign capital in just three days after buying and selling for six consecutive trading days, we have previously given the conclusion - incremental funds determine the market style, no incremental funds is the stock game.

The transaction is based on the expectations of market players, and the funds are at the micro level, which corresponds to the macro logic behind them. The lack of incremental funds and the sluggishness of heavyweight stocks are essentially because the inflection point has not yet appeared, or the inflection point is still very hazy and cannot be bet on.

We can predict that the style of speculating on small, speculating, and speculating themes that emerged after the Spring Festival in 21 will eventually decline after the climax of this year, and predict that value investment will return after being despised by the market. In the first two weeks, we emphasized the importance of institutional heavy stocks, but these two weeks have recognized the reality, and we have shared our views on the current market in today's pre-market "Shareholder Investment Research": that is, to do hot spots is the status quo, we must respect the market, and wait for new expectations in the market outlook, waiting for the inflection point to appear.

After complaining, let's look at the market:

• RRR cuts are expected to rise again

Yesterday, after the market the central bank released the financial data for October, the new social finance and RMB loans in October exceeded market expectations, but the social finance was mainly contributed by government bonds, M1 was lower than expected, and the M1-M2 scissors gap continued to expand, showing that liquidity is still accumulated in the financial system, not flowing into the real economy, market confidence is insufficient, and the degree of capital activation has declined. In addition, the CPI and export data released last week were less than expected, and the market's expectations for the RRR cut increased.

Tomorrow there is 850 billion yuan of MLF (medium-term lending facility) due, foreign brokerages are expected to cut interest rates, today's intraday offshore yuan weakened, probably because of interest rate cut expectations.

• CICC intraday limit

The financial work conference mentioned "cultivating first-class investment banks and investment institutions", and later the China Securities Regulatory Commission also mentioned supporting "mergers and acquisitions to expand the securities industry", and the market began to look forward to the "aircraft carrier-level brokerage", although CICC, $China Galaxy (SH601881) $ China Galaxy, the two Huijin brokerages have issued announcements to clarify, but today's similar rumors have made $CICC (SH601995) $CICC and China Galaxy once rose to the limit, driving the securities sector to rise sharply.

• Winner Technology's daily limit

Recently, AI has made a comeback, and the computing power sector has been very strong in the past two days, and today's computing power leasing sector is even more up-and-down, mainly stimulated by the following news:

OpenAI released the official version of GPTS, detonating the enthusiasm of the whole people for AIGC creation. As of 7 p.m. on Friday, the number of GPTS Hunter custom GPTs in the third-party GPT store has exceeded 2,000. With the opening of the era of AI applications and the acceleration of ecological construction, the valuation suppression factors of the computing power sector are expected to be gradually eliminated.

AHEAD OF TODAY'S U.S. STOCK MARKET OPEN, NVIDIA'S INVESTOR RELATIONS WEBSITE ANNOUNCED THE LAUNCH OF THE NIDA HGX H200 FOR GENERATIVE AI AND HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING WORKLOADS. In terms of computing power, H200 and H100 are almost the same, and the main upgrade this time is HBM3e, which directly improves the training effect of large models after the corresponding bandwidth is increased.

Frequent news of computing power price increases: Ali computing experts said on the conference call that the price increase of Alibaba Cloud's new computing power is between 30% and 50%. $Winner Technology (SZ300609)$Winner Technology announced today at noon that the company received a notice from its partner, Sichuan Bingji Technology Co., Ltd., that due to the significant increase in the demand for computing power for high-performance computing servers embedded in NVIDIA A100 chips, the continuous increase in prices of related high-performance computing equipment, and the continued shortage of computing resources, Sichuan Bingji Technology Co., Ltd. decided to increase its A100 computing service fee by 100%.

Specifically, A-shares once dived after opening high today, but bottomed out at midday. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.31%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.12%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.74%. The turnover of the two cities was moderately enlarged to 0.89 trillion yuan, and the net sale of northbound funds was 2.109 billion yuan.

Tonight, the United States will release the October CPI data, the market expectation is 3.3%, the previous value is 3.7%, the key is the core CPI, whether the US 10 bond yield can go to the next level depends on tonight's CPI data.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently