If there is a bull market, what is the most profitable to buy?
Recently, the market has been okay, and the live broadcasts and surveys of some sell-side institutions have been much more active than before. When the market is dull, the text version can be turned in 20 minutes, and the daily time is longer these days, and the focus of institutional discussions has changed from the previous "where is the bottom" to "where is the opportunity".
Today, I heard the views of some private equity firms, and one of them is quite impressive.
As I told you two days ago, it is a big fund, and the certainty of opportunities is often relatively high, and clear policies and industrial trends are needed.
During the exchange, some funds were also worried about whether 24 years would become a state without a main line and partial to the theme like this year. At the same time, it is also tracking whether the recent strong structural market of electronics, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals has the opportunity to be interpreted as the main line of the next round of bull market.
In their view, in terms of the law of capital behavior, in the past every 2-3 years or so, there will be a process of institutional group switching. For example, the blue-chip market of financial real estate in 12-13 years, the TMT and GEM market in 14-15 years, the cyclical blue-chip market in 16-17 years, the consumer medicine white horse market in 19-20 years, and the new energy market in 20-21 years. In hindsight, as long as you can step on it, the meat is very fatty, and it may be the only opportunity to make money in a few years.
However, the general market without a main line is most likely to appear in the extreme environment where the old huddle of the institution collapses, and at the same time, there is no consensus expectation and the new huddle is not established. For the past two years, it is the process of clearing the chips of the white horse and the old new energy group, and at the same time, this year, due to their own problems, TMT is not enough to establish a new group, one performance is low growth, and the other performance has marginal improvement, but the growth rate is not so high.
They also give two necessary but not sufficient conditions for the formation of a huddle:
1. There is a clear economic verification
The so-called boom is not necessarily the growth rate of performance, but also the amount of data tracked, such as forward-looking indicators such as the sudden increase in the demand for batteries for new energy vehicles in 20 years, but it is not a thematic game.
This is an important condition for the position, and the faster the economic trend is established, the shorter the time spent on the new group, such as the collapse of the white horse group in 21 years, the funds are pouring into new energy, behind which is the resonance of the performance and carbon neutrality strategy of all links in the industrial chain, which is a very perfect prosperity trend.
2. The early chip structure is cleared
New mainlines tend not to appear in areas that were previously highly configured by the agency, as is often the case. They are all directions that are less concerned by institutions and have long-term chips cleared, because the financial resistance is the smallest.
This is one of the reasons why we have always believed that new energy has a chance to rebound, with a space of about 20%, but it is difficult to become a new main line again. The follow-up new energy vehicle opportunities are intelligent, and the photovoltaic opportunities are in new battery technology.
As for the allocation of institutions, we can't get the data of private placement, but as of the third quarter, the data of public offering shows that the position of food, medicine, electronics, and power equipment (new energy) is relatively high.
Public offerings tend to have a high allocation ceiling of around 20%. This, combined with future fundamentals and logic, currently we believe that the probability of electronic improvement is greater, and at the same time, AI will rise, and computers will also rise. There is room for improvement in medicine, after all, it is reduced from more than 20%, and it is an industry with stable performance. There is not much room for food, because the growth rate is not imaginative, and there is new energy, the growth rate is declining, it would be good to stop reducing the holdings, even if you are optimistic about the valuation and increase the room for holdings, there is a high probability of increasing holdings like Ningwang.
Of course, this does not exclude other low-profile industries, but at present, it is true that these industries do not see industrial trends.
In short, each round of the bull market will inevitably go out of the main line, because the continuous effect and money-making effect of the main line are needed to drive the market's capital and sentiment. We are also continuing to observe and track, at present, counting with nostrils, thinking about it, there is only the technology brought by new technological breakthroughs, including the domestic substitution brought by Huawei's breakthrough, and the technological revolution caused by AI.
Okay, some of the above ideas triggered by some points of view, share, you can communicate.
A few more words:
1. Inflation data for October is out
In October, the PPI fell by 2.6% year-on-year, and the CPI fell by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating that inflation is still very low, and inflation will determine whether the central bank's monetary policy will be loosened or tightened, and to put it bluntly, it is a cycle of interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts.
As long as inflation does not rise, it is difficult to turn the monetary policy in the current interest rate cut cycle, and the overall risk of bonds is not large.
2. Is the DMA business of the brokerage company controlled?
Last night, the news was fermenting, saying that some brokerages did receive a regulatory notice, requiring that starting from November 9, the daily day-end quantitative DMA business according to the manager dimension shall not exceed the day-end scale on November 8.
To put it bluntly, DMA business is a business in which private equity and other managers can enlarge leverage by financing and securities lending from brokers, plus proprietary leverage can achieve 1:4, which can meet some needs of high-frequency trading, and do transactions in the brokerage's proprietary system without opening an account.
The reason for the suspension is also speculation, which may be to reduce market leverage, or to direct funds to be used elsewhere.
3. Appropriately tighten the refinancing of listed companies
Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges issued new rules on refinancing, strictly setting five "red lines".
This is a chart made on September 27, and it can be seen that the scale of additional issuance and refinancing over the years has exceeded the scale of IPOs.
Data source: Choice time period 2019-September 27, 2023
Refinancing is to help enterprises get funds to expand production and new business to help development, but some companies think that after getting the money, they want to cash out, plug the hole of refinancing, and further solve the problem of blood loss in A-shares.
Okay, that's it for today.
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