Has beer sales growth reached a "ceiling"?
Text | Selling Wine Wolf Team
Ed southerly
Recently, Macquarie issued a research report saying that it gave China Resources Beer (00291) an "underperform" rating, and lowered its 2023 and 24 profit forecasts by 6% and 5% respectively after taking into account the decline in sales volume and the deleveraging of beer business operations, and lowered the target price by 4% from HK$40.5 to HK$39.
A
China Resources Beer, which has just emphasized the "three growths".
In March, China Resources Beer released its 2022 annual results. According to the financial report, the consolidated turnover of China Resources Beer in 2022 was RMB35.263 billion, an increase of 5.6% over 2021; net profit was 4.344 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year.
Although Snow Beer's revenue and profit will increase in 2022, it is still facing the problem of slow sales growth. Hou Xiaohai, chairman of the board of directors of China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co., Ltd., pointed out at the results meeting that although the sales volume of Snow Beer in 2022 will only decrease by 3% compared with 2019 before the epidemic, there are still regrets in the growth rate of overall sales.
In August, China Resources Beer released its 2023 semi-annual results. During the reporting period, China Resources Beer achieved revenue of 23.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%; The net profit was 4.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%.
▲Hou Xiaohai, Chairman of the Board of Directors of China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co., Ltd
"If the growth trend in the first half of this year is followed, even if consumption is suppressed in the third quarter in the second half of the year, we are confident that we will achieve double-digit growth of sub-premium beer this year, and are expected to achieve the first place in Chinese beer sales above sub-premium this year or next year." Hou Xiaohai, chairman of the board of directors of China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co., Ltd., said.
From November 1st to 3rd, China Resources Beer held the 150th anniversary celebration of Heineken, the 2023 Snowflake Channel Partner Conference and the "Sharing, Co-creation and Co-Development" China Resources Snowflake Supplier Conference on the Bund in Shanghai.
Hou Xiaohai announced the goal of high-end development of China Resources Beer at the meeting: "one 300, three 100". "One 300" means that 3 million tons of high-end products should be realized; "Three 100", that is, 1 million tons of Heineken beer, 1 million tons of pure life, and 10 billion yuan of corporate profits.
In this process, CR Beer emphasizes three growths: first, the growth of sales volume and share is a new criterion under the economic downturn and shrinking consumption; second, the pursuit of high-quality growth, that is, revenue, profit and high-end products; Third, the performance outperformed the market, exceeding the industry and the average level of T5 (TOP5 companies in the beer industry).
B
There is growth, positive growth, and growth!
China Resources Beer was rated as "underperforming the market"
Beer sales have peaked, and China Resources has a long high-end road!
According to public data, the total domestic beer production in 2021 was 35.62 million kiloliters, while the output in 2019 was 37.65 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2 million kiloliters in three years. The beer industry is saturated and is already starting to decline. Seeking new increments and taking the high-end route has become a strategic choice for China Resources Beer, and the "beer + white" model is pinned on high hopes.
Between 2017 and 2021, CR Beer closed 38 factories. Bet on high-end brands such as SuperX, Heineken and Snowflake Mars Green Beer, and launch ultra-high-end products such as Li, Black Lion Fruit Beer and Snow Beer. In 2022, China Resources Liquor announced that it intends to acquire a 55.19% stake in Jinsha Liquor at a consideration of 12.3 billion yuan.
In terms of high-end beer, an industry expert once said in an interview with the media, "China Resources Beer still has many challenges, in addition to brand problems, there are also channels, organizational problems, and even a series of problems including products, it is difficult for China Resources Beer to become the industry's No. 1 mid-to-high-end brand in a short period of time, which needs to go a long way." ”
At the 2023 National Distributor Conference of Jinsha Liquor held in June, Fan Shikai proposed that Jinsha Liquor will adhere to the principle of three years, that is, "consolidate the foundation in 2023, comprehensively upgrade in 2024, and achieve brand leadership in 2025".
Of course, CR Beer does have difficulties to overcome, but in the eyes of many industry insiders, its future development is still promising. On the one hand, China Resources Beer cooperated with Heineken Group to increase the total number of high-end beer categories of China Resources Beer to 3 million kiloliters, and the rapid development of Heineken is driving the high-end growth of China Resources Beer.
▲Jacco van der Linden, President of Heineken Asia Pacific
Jacco van der Linden, President of Heineken Asia Pacific, said: "China is on the verge of becoming Heineken's second largest market in the world, and the goal is to become the world's number one market. ”
On the other hand, the market economy is recovering, and more market demand will be released in 2024. Everyone is still optimistic about the trend of high-end beer in China, and believes that the high-end upgrade is not yet halfway.
From the perspective of long-term development, CR Beer is still an enterprise and brand with high-quality development potential in the market. #MyLifeDiary##Liquor##头条酒馆#