Chen Shaojie's disappearance, how much impact does it have on bettas?

After Chen Shaojie lost contact, many media took the financial report, the bottleneck of the traditional game live broadcast platform, and the violations of Douyu in the past to tell how big the crisis of the platform is now, no, this is like taking the conclusion and forcibly deducing the process. If you want to prove how much trouble you have fallen into when you lose Chen Shaojie's betta, I have a more appropriate case.

Author: Erhao

Yesterday, Chen Shaojie, chairman of the board of directors and CEO of Douyu, was confirmed to be missing by platform insiders.

The shock brought by this news is so huge, on the one hand, because of the influence and popularity of Douyu in the field of e-sports and game live broadcast, Chen Shaojie's disappearance quickly attracted the attention of our circle and a wider range of game live broadcast audiences. On the other hand, Douyu is a listed company, and the loss of contact with the helmsman must have obvious social influence.

After Chen Shaojie lost contact, the reports were overwhelming, and all kinds of analysis followed, everyone's views are very unified, and the analysis content is also very unified: from the financial report, industry environment, and frequent violations and rectification incidents to prove that Douyu's life is not good, coupled with the loss of contact with the helmsman, resulting in this one of the giants who broke out of the encirclement from the "Thousand Broadcast War" and stood at the top of the game live broadcast industry, and is now standing on the edge of the cliff.

It is not surprising that the wall has fallen and everyone has pushed it, and it is true that Douyu is in a difficult situation now, but the author believes that the situation of the platform is not directly related to its financial performance and past violations. As mentioned in the introduction, if you want to prove how much trouble the betta fish lost Chen Shaojie fell into, I have a more appropriate case.

01

The betta fish in Chen Shaojie's hand

On the afternoon of July 17, 2019, Beijing time, Douyu was a few hours away from listing on the NASDAQ, and the large screen outside the exchange was occupied by an orange background and a "shark" in clothes. At that time, Chen Shaojie was standing in the square in front of the big screen, holding a shark doll symbolizing the betta fish in his hand, full of spirit.

There were 4 people standing next to him who were also in suits and leather shoes: PDD, Xu Xu Baobao, YYF and Nuliu 66. Even now, these 4 are still the hottest stars in the entire game live streaming industry.

Therefore, the listing of Douyu, which was originally an event in the capital circle, has received widespread attention from the live broadcast audience of e-sports games, and Chen Shaojie's voice among the young people has skyrocketed.

This is an opportunity for us to find clues about "how much influence Chen Shaojie has on Douyu", because from the official listing, Douyu's financial performance and every strategic movement can be captured by us.

It should be mentioned that regardless of whether it is listed or not, Douyu is a huge and complex machine, Chen Shaojie, as the top leader, will naturally not be insignificant about the company's business, but the course of Douyu must be helmed by him.

Before 2021, Douyu's big voyage was still very pure, in the words of Chen Shaojie, "we are confident in creating high-quality content and e-sports platforms".

There are two key points in this sentence, one is content and the other is esports. Therefore, in terms of e-sports, Douyu had two major moves in his playing style at that time, first in terms of e-sports copyright, and secondly, competing with other platforms for signing professional player anchors.

In terms of content, Chen Shaojie's tone is "live broadcast, video, and community trinity business ecology", and such a content ecological strategy is also for e-sports. Long-time users of the game live streaming platform must be familiar with a series of strategies centered on e-sports that were very common in the industry at the time.

is also familiar with the style of play, starting from 2020, Douyu began to pay attention to self-made events and PGC variety show content.

This is the first development direction of betta fish in Chen Shaojie's hands that we can dig after the betta fish is listed. And the reason for this development direction is also very simple, esports was in full swing at that time.

In the year of 2021, there has been a strategic adjustment in the course of Douyu, and Chen Shaojie's statement is "a diversified content ecological platform with games as the core". This statement is important and needs to be examined.

Of course, although the strategy has been adjusted, Douyu's playing style is still relatively conservative in terms of adjustment, compared with the past, more emphasis is placed on event copyright and star player anchors, and self-made events, self-made variety shows and other content have been brought to a higher position, and linkage game manufacturers have also become the core business.

This is followed by 2022, which will still "adhere to the development strategy of 'a diversified content ecological platform with games as the core'". How is this stage different from the previous one? There is a big event that everyone must remember, that is, Douyu withdrew from the event copyright market and concentrated on self-made content.

From the last stage to this stage, why did Chen Shaojie give up the strategy of building an "e-sports platform"? Don't forget the impact of the black swan event of the pandemic. At that time, the e-sports industry was full of grief, a large number of offline events were suspended, and the e-sports industry at home and abroad suffered a serious impact.

On the other hand, platforms such as Bilibili, Douyin, and Kuaishou have also entered the event copyright market, and the price of event copyright has risen, and the entire market has become very involuted.

E-sports events are cold, copyright premiums are obvious, and the game industry is stronger, and the logic of Douyu's above-mentioned strategic adjustment is smooth.

At this stage, in addition to specializing in self-made content, Douyu's core work has become to deepen the linkage with game manufacturers and optimize the content of paid products.

Then the time came to 2023, and it was still the diversified content ecological platform with games as the core, but this year, the business focus of Douyu in Chen Shaojie's hands has changed. In the past, when the platform's financial report was released every quarter, Chen Shaojie would come forward to say two sentences, summarize the achievements, and look forward to the future, and this year is no exception. It is worth noting that in the second quarter of this year, the helmsman made a rare effort to put deep and mutually beneficial cooperation with game manufacturers in a key position. Equally important to this content is "cost reduction".

In Q1 of this year, the focus of his conversation was also "cooperation with game manufacturers" and "cost reduction", in addition to that: the resumption of the purchase of the copyright of some core events. You must know that in Chen Shaojie's speech before 2023, it is difficult for us to see the content of linkage game manufacturers.

What is the market environment behind these statements? It is the entry of e-sports into Asia, the strong recovery of the industry, the end of the harsh winter of the game version, and the continued development of the game industry. Obviously, while Douyu attaches more importance to the lucrative game industry, it also realizes that although the purchase of e-sports rights requires a lot of costs, its value as a traffic entrance is difficult to replace.

At this point, reviewing the details of several strategic adjustments of Douyu since its listing in 2019, we can find that in the rapidly changing market, Douyu in Chen Shaojie's hands has always been rapidly adjusting its course and adjusting its business focus at any time. Although we can't be sure whether he is completely correct every time he adjusts the course, it is certain that Douyu survived the impact of the market under the impact of a larger large player, and Chen Shaojie is very keen to capture market changes.

02

Hanging by a thread? It's too early to say

Compared with using the financial performance to tie up Chen Shaojie's loss of contact and the danger of the betta, it is better to see how many hurdles the betta under the leadership of Chen Shaojie has passed, which can not prove how important Chen Shaojie is to the betta? Isn't it more proof of how critical the situation of betta fish is?

And in the author's opinion, Douyu's financial performance is not bad. When the Douyu Q2 financial report was released this year, the author published an analysis article "From the Douyu Q2 financial report, look at the "new chips" of "old players".

In the past, we have been criticizing the problem of the single revenue model of the live broadcast platform, because once the user tip decreases, it may endanger the life of the platform, which is why many investors are not optimistic about the live broadcast platform. However, through this year's Q2, we can find that Douyu's paying users are decreasing, and the live broadcast reward income is decreasing, but the net profit is rising, and advertising and other income are increasing significantly.

Such a situation may seem like a "decline", but there is no doubt that the betta fish is getting rid of the situation of walking on one leg in the past, and the other "legs" are getting stronger.

The decline in overall revenue is not simply a problem that plagues Douyu, but the dividend period of traditional live broadcast platforms has disappeared, and the entire market is relatively weak.

It is true that compared with the live broadcast bonus period a few years ago, the revenue of the platform Douyu, including all game live broadcast platforms, is shrinking, but the traditional live broadcast platform under environmental pressure has explored a business model that is obviously healthier than the bonus period. It's okay for the wall to fall down and everyone pushes it, but the key is that many people don't push it to the point.

Secondly, judging from the financial performance of Douyu, even if Chen Shaojie is lost now, it is an indisputable fact that shareholders can share the money, the company has a certain profitability, and the risk of capital chain breakage is small. These conclusions are not what I said, they are the conclusions reached by AI analysis of Douyu's financial report, at least in the financial report analysis, AI is more professional than me.

Therefore, it is too early to assert that the fate of betta fish hangs by a thread. Of course, it's okay for a short time, if Chen Shaojie can't come back for a long time, and the market has changed for a long time, bringing new impacts or opportunities, then Betta will be really dangerous.