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Text: Nian Xiaonuan
Edit| According to the snow under the jade pass
India's ambition has not been lost, not only dreaming of a great power every day, but also at a specific point in time, that is, in 2044, India will become the world's second largest economy, achieving an "India-China reversal".
It has to be said that Modi's ambitions are both bold and incredible, does he really not know the gap between India and China?
01 The world's most populous country
As the two major powers in Asia and also belong to the BRICS, China and India have always been talked about by the world because of their similar history and national conditions.
What is India's greatest stand out in the international community? That's a huge population, of course.
At the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, India's population was about 360 million, 180 million less than that of China at the same time, but due to the influence of various aspects, its birth rate has been increasing year by year, and eventually soon caught up with China's level.
On April 19, 2023, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released a report that estimates that India's population will surpass China's to 1.42 billion in 2023.
At the beginning of this year, relevant data from the United Nations also showed that India's population has reached 1.41 billion and will continue to increase in the future.
In terms of both birth rate and natural growth rate, India has far surpassed China to become the world's most populous country.
In addition, in terms of demographic structure, India's population is pyramid-shaped, with a median age of 28 years old, and more than 40% of Indians are under the age of 25, so it can be said that India is a relatively young country.
As a result, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was so proud that he quickly stood on the podium of the joint session of the US Congress and proudly proclaimed to the world: "We account for one-sixth of the world's population, we have a huge domestic market, and in a few years, India will become a young and emerging world factory with a young population." ”
However, although Modi has become the prime minister of a major country with the "number one" population, will he sit back and relax?
It is important to know that although India has a large young population and its structure is relatively reasonable, it also faces some demographic problems that are difficult to resolve due to the intertwining of complex issues such as religion or geography.
For example, in India, the quality of the population is generally low because many people do not have good education or skills training, and they are unable to obtain high-end or stable employment opportunities.
According to a UNESCO figure, India is currently illiterate at 10% of the population, the highest in the world, while in China the figure is only 2.67%.
In addition, due to the serious patriarchal mentality in India, the gender ratio is unbalanced, and the difference between male superiority and inferiority makes it possible for men to go out to work, while women can only have and raise children at home.
In fact, the Indian government has always had a problem with how to control population growth. In fact, as early as the 50s of the last century, India had already proposed a population control plan, almost 30 years earlier than China's family planning policy, but in the end it backfired.
In the 70s, India's first female prime minister, Indira Gandhi, introduced a policy to force men to undergo birth control in order to control the population, and millions of Indian men at the time implemented this policy, but it was ultimately unsuccessful.
In the decades that followed, India's population grew from one to the fullest, eventually overtaking China to become the world's most populous country.
However, although Modi was aware of the drawbacks of the "population explosion", he was still excited and proud, and his national self-confidence exploded instantly, so he announced in a high-profile manner that the "India-China reversal" would be achieved in 2044.
In other words, India is about to surpass China, get rid of the status of the fifth largest economy, and become the "second largest economy in the world", I have to say that India's superpower dream is still immersed in fantasy, is Modi really not aware of the gap with China?
02 India's ambitions
2022 is a landmark year for India, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India's GDP economy has surpassed that of its colonial overlord, the United Kingdom, to become the world's fifth-largest economy.
When the news spread all over India, the domestic public opinion blowers immediately rejoiced, boasting that India's economic take-off had crushed the UK, and on Twitter, the cheers of netizens came like a tide, and some people left a message saying: This colony of the Nordic people will always "follow" India in the future! ”
Because ten years ago, India's GDP ranked only 11th in the world, and the United Kingdom ranked fifth, and now India is leaping into the dragon gate, which can be described as a rapid growth, how can it not make the people proud?
As a result, with the rapid growth of India's economy and the huge size of India's population, coupled with good geographical advantages, many people think that India does have a bright future and is full of flowers.
Of course, Modi is even more proud of this, declaring that it is not a problem for India to surpass China to become the second largest economy.
Objectively speaking, if India maintains social stability at home, it should be possible for its economic aggregate to surpass that of Japan and Germany in more than 20 years, after all, both Japan and Germany have a downward trend, but if they want to surpass China, it is purely ambitious.
So why is Modi so ambitious? In fact, in addition to some objective factors, it is also due to some issues on the reversal of China and India by his royal economic adviser.
On September 14, 2023, the economic adviser published an article on the Brookings Economics website, a US think tank, expounding the theoretical insight that "India surpasses China".
After comparing China and India with labor factors, real investment rates, and total factor productivity, we know that India will lead China by 1.5 percentage points per year in net growth in these three areas.
The economic adviser then took the data and came to the divine conclusion: "Between 2020 and 2045, India's average growth rate will outpace China's by 3.5%, and it should surpass China by 2044 at the latest."
I have to say that India's conjecture is indeed unrealistic, and Modi has also doubled his confidence based on this article, and instantly has the courage to catch up with China.
Of course, it is undeniable that India, under Modi's leadership, is not only experiencing remarkable economic growth, but also becoming more and more active diplomatically.
During Modi's visit to the United States in June this year, he was received and praised by Biden at a high level, and then he went to France, had an intimate meeting with Macron, and signed an agreement in principle with France to purchase 26 warplanes and 3 French submarines.
Will India really overtake China? In fact, the answer should be no, because there is indeed a big gap between China and India, and this is also a problem that Modi deliberately turns a blind to.
03 The gap between China and India
It is well known that China has been the "world's most populous country" for two centuries, and now giving way to India would undoubtedly inflate Modi's self-esteem, so the country is confident that it will surpass China in two decades, but ignores the gap between China and India.
First of all, in terms of economic size, India and China cannot compete with each other.
Although India's economy is already among the top five economies in the world, it is not large. According to the World Bank, in the two decades from 2000 to 2022, China's share in the global manufacturing industry has risen from less than 10% to 30%, while India's share has always hovered below 5%;
And in two decades, China's GDP has risen from nearly 14 trillion yuan to more than 130 trillion yuan, which is an astonishing rapid growth, while India's GDP growth rate is very slow, only 29 trillion yuan in 2022.
Second, India and China are pale in terms of the quality of their workforce.
Although India has become the most populous country, which is a sign that there will be an abundance of cheap labor, there is a lack of many job opportunities in India.
According to relevant statistics, more than 20 million people in India have entered the labor market, but in fact, less than 40% of them have found jobs, and the rest are unemployed when they reach adulthood.
If this trend continues, there will be a surge in surplus labor, which will lead to an infinite increase in the number of people living in poverty in India.
Thirdly, in terms of infrastructure, India and China are very different.
As we all know, India's infrastructure is very weak, and although the Modi government is determined to improve it, the infrastructure must also be financed, which is the biggest constraint on economic development due to inefficiency.
As for China, "China's speed" and "China's power" have long impressed the world.
During the epidemic in 2020, the mainland built Huoshenshan Hospital in 10 days, and then Leishenshan Hospital in 11 days.
In particular, in 2013, when China first proposed the idea of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative and focused on strengthening its strategy focusing on infrastructure construction, it attracted global admiration.
Finally, in terms of high-tech comparison, China directly crushes India.
Of the world's 20 high-income technology companies, China alone accounts for four, while Indian companies are nowhere on the list. China produces more than half of the world's 5G build-up, while India accounts for only 1%.
In addition, China's Douyin and other similar apps have long been on the world stage, but India has no technology products to go global.
In the field of artificial intelligence, China currently owns 65% of the world's AI patents, while India owns only 3%.
It can be seen that the gap between China and India is visible to the naked eye, and India currently has no bright spots to compete with China except for its huge population base and its ability to curry favor with the United States and Western countries, so Modi's dream of revival is destined to be a fantasy.
You must know that China is a self-confident, open, down-to-earth, and continuous progress country, and the far-sighted, tolerant and generous pattern of a major country is not comparable to India.