The net inflow is nearly 10 billion, and foreign capital is back?

At the close of trading today, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3030.80 points, up 0.71%; The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9853.89 points, up 1.22%; The GEM index was reported at 1968.21 points, up 1.47%. The turnover of the two cities was 809.5 billion yuan, an increase of 42.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and nearly 3,900 stocks rose. Today, the net inflow of northbound funds was 9.923 billion yuan and the net purchase was 7.108 billion yuan.

On the news side, the official Weibo of the Ministry of State Security published a document entitled "State Security Organs Be Firm Guardians of Financial Security!" on the 2nd. The article points out that the "bears", "shorts", "shorts" and "shorts" in the financial market are vigilant, which has a boosting effect on market confidence.

On the disk, the biggest highlight today is the inflow of northbound for the second consecutive day, with a net inflow of nearly 10 billion throughout the day today. The main reason for the northward inflow was that the Fed paused its interest rate hike boots and Treasury yields began to retreat, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling 12.4 basis points to 4.667% on Thursday and as low as 4.626%.

According to the refinancing report released by the U.S. Treasury Department, the total amount of refinancing bond issuance next week is $112 billion, lower than the market expectation of $114 billion. Funds began to flow back to A-share assets with higher certainty.

In terms of plates, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", today's machine vision, reducer and other robot plates set off a tide of daily limits, the Beijing Stock Exchange stocks Juneng shares 30CM daily limit, Haozhi electromechanical, Fengli intelligent 20CM daily limit. In addition, the chip sector rose first, Yongsi Electronics 20CM daily limit, and Xinyichang rose by more than 15%. Recently, the number of meetings and dialogues between China and the United States has increased, and the United States will send the largest delegation to participate in the Expo, and the United States and China are also expected to have high-level talks at the APEC meeting on November 15, which will support the current chip and pharmaceutical market to a certain extent.

In addition, the market is still relatively positive about the sales of new energy vehicles in November and December, and the market of related sectors is also expected to continue.

1. Continue to pay attention to the turnover, if you want to successfully attack the key point of 3053, the turnover needs to be at least 900 billion.

2. Pay attention to the driving role of the northbound market sentiment, and the effective upward breakthrough of the market needs to be leveraged by the northbound linkage institutions to leverage the weighted sector together, in order to truly bring about an effective rebound in market confidence, and under the promotion of the policy of "cultivating first-class investment banks", you can continue to pay attention to the performance of the brokerage sector next week.

3. Pay attention to the index repair opportunities of the real estate sector in the process of index stabilization.

Overview of the broader market

At the close of trading on November 2, the three major A-share indexes collectively closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to close at 3,030.80 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.22% to close at 9,853.89 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.47% to close at 1,968.21 points. The turnover of the two cities was 809.5 billion yuan, an increase of 42.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and nearly 3,900 shares rose.

In terms of capital flow, the net inflow of northbound funds was 9.923 billion yuan and the net purchase was 7.108 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 4.133 billion yuan and the net purchase was 2.804 billion yuan, and the net inflow of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 5.790 billion yuan and the net purchase was 4.304 billion yuan. The net inflow of main funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 5.077 billion yuan, the net inflow of large orders was 8.358 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 3.280 billion yuan, the net outflow of medium orders was 10.226 billion yuan, and the net inflow of small orders was 5.149 billion yuan.

In terms of plates:

The motor and semiconductor sectors were among the top gainers, and the Chiplet concept and robot concept stocks broke out.

Chip stocks collectively strengthened in the afternoon, Langke Technology, Yongsi Electronics 20CM daily limit, Xin Yichang rose more than 15%, Huahai Chengke, Guoxin Technology, Haoli Technology, Hongxun Technology, Star Semiconductor, etc.

The motor sector Dingzhi Technology rose by more than 18%, Tongda Power and Keli rose by the limit, Jiangsu Leili rose by more than 8%, and Wolong Electric Drive, Founder Motor, Bafang Shares, and Mingzhi Electric Appliances rose by more than 5%.

Robot concept stocks rose sharply at the opening, with the 30CM daily limit of individual stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the 20CM daily limit of Haozhi Electromechanical and Fengli Intelligent, and the daily limit of more than 10 shares such as Julun Intelligence, Shenzhen Keda, O-film, Keli Sensing, and Zhongda Dade.

In terms of decline, the railway, highway and real estate development sectors were among the top decliners. Medical stocks fell into adjustment, and concept sectors such as ursodeoxycholic acid, super fungi, and recombinant proteins fell.

In the railway and highway sector, the Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway fell by more than 4%, and the Central Plains Expressway and Shenzhen Expressway fell by more than 2%; In the real estate development sector, Zhongdi Investment fell more than 6%, Suning Global fell more than 4%, Wolong Real Estate and Caixin Development fell more than 3%; In the medical sector, Sialon Pharmaceuticals fell to the limit, Haite Biotech fell more than 14%, Kyodo Pharmaceutical fell more than 8%, and Saito Biotech fell more than 6%.

Market analysis

Overall: Caitong Securities said that the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices regained their 5-day moving averages, and the short-term bullish pattern remained intact. After the recent conclusion of the Central Financial Work Conference, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission collectively spoke out, sending a series of policy signals to comprehensively strengthen financial supervision.

According to the performance tracking system of A-share listed companies, the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext index exceeded expectations and were higher than the average of the same period. Judging from the situation of the third quarter report, the three major indexes have rebounded beyond expectations, and the overall marginal recovery of the performance of listed companies. With the efforts of fiscal policy and the continuous recovery of the macro environment, it is believed that the performance of listed companies is expected to accelerate. It is recommended that in the case of the marginal repair of the overall fundamentals of the market, select the unexpected stocks that benefit from the endogenous growth of China's economy.

In terms of industry allocation, Bohai Securities believes that it can focus on: (1) the allocation opportunities in the food and beverage, pharmaceutical and biological industries with the support of sufficient valuation adjustment, relatively sufficient performance risk release, and contingent northbound capital replenishment; (2) Industry demand has stabilized, inventory has returned to a healthy level, and the game opportunity of the fundamental inflection point of the electronics industry is catalyzed by the promotion of domestic substitution by the US ban; (3) In the context of the policy effect of "activating the capital market" is not yet significant and more measures can be expected, the policy game opportunities of the financial sector (banks, non-bank finance).

Judging from the trend of the representative sectors:

▍Robot Concept:

On the news side, on November 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", the document pointed out that humanoid robots are expected to become subversive products after computers, smart phones, and new energy vehicles, and clarified the goal and time point of the development of humanoid robots, by 2025, a number of key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, limbs" have made breakthroughs to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components, and the whole machine products have reached the international advanced level, and achieved mass production. Scenarios such as livelihood services have been demonstrated; By 2027, the technological innovation capability of humanoid robots will be significantly improved, and a safe and reliable industrial chain and supply chain system will be formed, and the comprehensive strength will reach the world's advanced level.

CITIC Securities Research Report believes that the introduction of the "Guiding Opinions" clarifies the key technologies and development direction of the humanoid robot industry, which will help promote the development of the industry, and the follow-up substantive support policies for humanoid robots are expected to come one after another, promote the development of domestic humanoid robot industry chain companies, continue to be optimistic about the humanoid robot industry chain, and it is recommended to pay attention to the leading companies in the robot industry chain.

Galaxy Securities believes that the future industrialization of humanoid robots can be divided into three tracks: one is Tesla's robot supply chain, the other is Chinese robot ontology enterprises, and the third is other parts suppliers who are expected to enter the humanoid robot track.

▍Semiconductor:

There is multiple positive news in the semiconductor sector. Tianyancha shows that Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. "semiconductor packaging" patent was published, and the application publication date is October 31, and the patent abstract shows that the present disclosure relates to a semiconductor package, which includes: a first substrate, a semiconductor chip, a lead frame and a sealant.

In addition, on November 1, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, met with Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO of Micron Technology. Wang Wentao said that China will unswervingly promote high-level opening-up, continuously optimize the foreign investment environment, and provide service guarantees for foreign-funded enterprises. We welcome Micron Technology to continue to take root in the Chinese market and achieve better development under the premise of complying with Chinese laws and regulations. Sanjay Mehrotra introduced the business development of Micron Technology and expressed his willingness to continue to expand investment in China.

It is reported that Micron is one of the three giants of memory chips, and its memory, flash memory and other products are widely used in mobile phones, computers, servers and other fields. According to TrendForce, in the fourth quarter of 2022, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron Technology ranked among the top three in the global DRAM market, with market shares of 45.1%, 27.7%, and 23.0%, respectively. In the NAND market, Micron Technology ranks fifth, with a market share of 12.3%.

In terms of industry performance, Wind data shows that in the third quarter of 2023 (Shenwan), among the listed companies in the semiconductor industry, except for SMIC and Huahong, which have not yet disclosed their results, a total of 49 companies have increased their attributable net profit in a single quarter quarter-on-quarter, or the decline has narrowed, accounting for more than one-third of the total number of statistics; This is compared to 38 in the second quarter. The quality of earnings of municipal companies has also improved.

Tianding Securities pointed out that the excellent performance of semiconductor companies in the third quarter is expected to boost the valuation repair expectations of the sector, while the short-term strength of semiconductors and the growth of downstream consumer electronics and smart car shipments will also drive the growth of chip branch orders.

Caixin Securities said that the import volume of semiconductor equipment reached a new high, the traditional peak season of consumer electronics made efforts, the downstream demand dawned, and the price of memory chip series products stopped falling and rebounded. Investment suggestions: 1) The prices of DRAM, NAND and other memory chip products have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reversal of the storage cycle. 2) The import volume of semiconductor equipment has reached a new high, and it is recommended to pay attention to domestic wafer foundry enterprises. 3) The import demand for front-end equipment is differentiated, and the import demand for back-end equipment is sluggish, so it is recommended to pay attention to the domestic substitution of back-end equipment related companies.

▍Medical:

According to the analysis of Zhongtai Securities Research Report, the Q3 performance of the pharmaceutical and biological sector is facing multiple disturbances, including medical anti-corruption, new crown base, macroeconomics and inventory depletion, etc., which suppresses the overall valuation of the sector. With the implementation of Q3 performance, the disturbances in Q4 have been basically eliminated, and the follow-up basic trend is very clear. At the policy level, the medical insurance negotiation in Q4 is still an important industry catalyst, and the eighth batch of drug centralized procurement and Anhui IVD centralized procurement are within market expectations, and the impact of centralized procurement has been marginally weakened again.

At present, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 25.1 times PE, which has fallen back to the bottom level of Q3 in 2018. 2023Q3 A-share funds (partial stock & flexible allocation funds) accounted for 7.71% after deducting pharmaceutical funds, and the pharmaceutical sector was underweighted by 0.90% after deducting pharmaceutical funds. At present, the pharmaceutical sector is still at the bottom of the valuation and position range, and the margin of safety is high.

Caixin Securities said that in October, the pharmaceutical and biological industry still issued a signal of volume rebound at the bottom, and from the perspective of congestion indicators, there is long-term upside. In the case that the correlation within the industry has not yet increased, the transaction concentration continues to rise, indicating that the overall market of the pharmaceutical and biological industry has not yet opened, and there are still certain opportunities.

Message-wise

1. On November 1, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, met with Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO of Micron Technology. Wang Wentao said that China will unswervingly promote high-level opening-up, continuously optimize the foreign investment environment, and provide service guarantees for foreign-funded enterprises. We welcome Micron Technology to continue to take root in the Chinese market and achieve better development under the premise of complying with Chinese laws and regulations. Sanjay Mehrotra introduced the business development of Micron Technology and expressed his willingness to continue to expand investment in China. (Good for the semiconductor sector)

2. A number of fund managers, including China AMC, E Fund, Bank of Communications Schroders, Invesco Great Wall, China Merchants Fund, etc., have recently announced their self-purchases, and most of the self-purchases are their equity products or new funds on sale. According to statistics, since October, nearly 20 public offering institutions have completed self-purchases, and most of the self-purchased products are mainly equity and hybrid. (Positive market sentiment)

3. Tianyancha shows that the patent of "semiconductor packaging" of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. was published, and the date of publication of the application is October 31, and the patent abstract shows that the present disclosure relates to a semiconductor package, which includes: a first substrate, a semiconductor chip, a lead frame and a sealant. (Good for the semiconductor sector)

4. The performance of the two major weight loss drug giants in the third quarter exceeded expectations, of which Novo Nordisk had sales of 58.73 billion Danish kroner and expected to be 57.8 billion Danish kroner. Eli Lilly's revenue was $9.499 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%, exceeding market expectations. (Good for the pharmaceutical and biological sector)

5. Apple's net profit in the third quarter was $22.96 billion, up 10.8% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share were $1.46, better than expectations of $1.39, and operating income fell 1% year-over-year to $89.5 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of declines to an expectation of $89.28 billion. All hardware revenues except the iPhone fell year-over-year, and the revenue of the iPad and Mac fell even more sharply. Greater China revenue was $15.08 billion, below expectations of $17.01 billion. (Bearish fruit chain enterprise)

6. According to statistics, in the third quarter of 2023, about three-thirds of semiconductor listed companies will increase or decline in single-quarter attributable net profit quarter-on-quarter, and more than half of the company's single-quarter gross profit margin will improve quarter-on-quarter, and the overall inventory turnover efficiency will increase. The profitability of chip design, especially analog chips, has improved significantly month-on-month, and the discrete devices and materials have also improved, but the profit growth rate of the equipment side has rarely declined. (Good for the semiconductor sector)

7. Zheng Shajie, Secretary of the Party Group and Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: Specifically, the macro policies that have been introduced will be effectively implemented at the micro level; Expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, continue to expand effective investment, and stabilize the fundamentals of foreign investment and foreign trade; Solidly promote the construction of a modern industrial system, and truly solve the operating difficulties and problems of some enterprises; Resolve risks in the economic and financial fields in a prudent and orderly manner, and firmly adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks; Do a solid job in ensuring people's livelihood at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. (Positive market sentiment)

8. The relevant person in charge of the bond department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that in the next step, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to stimulate the vitality of the bond market. Adhere to the bottom-line thinking, and make every effort to do a good job in risk prevention and control in key areas such as real estate and urban investment. To adapt to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, we will continue to do a good job in the capital market to support the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Maintain the overall stability of the financing channels for real estate enterprises' stocks and bonds, and support the reasonable financing needs of normal operating real estate enterprises. Adhere to the "one enterprise, one policy" to steadily resolve the risk of bond default of large real estate enterprises. Strengthen the risk monitoring and early warning of urban investment bonds, take the "explosion prevention" of open market bonds and non-standard debts as the top priority, and make every effort to maintain the smooth operation of the bond market. (Positive market sentiment)