At present, supercomputer forecasts continue to point out that Typhoon No. 17 "Geralwa" is expected to form around November 11. However, Typhoon No. 17 "Geralwa" was not brewed by Typhoon Embryo 92W, but a new tropical cyclone activity in the distant-sea waters of the northwest Pacific Ocean began to slowly integrate and develop, intensifying into Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua". As a result, a small number of meteorological agencies have clearly reported that it is expected that around November 10, the "stunted" tropical cloud mass in the waters of Guam will be eaten by an ocean-going low pressure system, and then intensify into Typhoon "Geralwa" No. 17. Even the latest GFS forecast has been reported three times in a row, and it is expected that Typhoon No. 17 "Gelawa" will come around November 12.
Judging from the current forecast data, many meteorological agencies are no longer optimistic that Typhoon Embryo 92W will be born into Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua". Although the sea east of the Philippines is not bad, it can provide enough potential heat for the development of typhoons. However, the wind field in which Typhoon Embryo 92W is located is not ideal, and it is difficult to develop into a typhoon. At the same time, the cloud structure of Typhoon Embryo 92W is relatively loose and the development is not ideal, and it is difficult to further strengthen into Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua". Therefore, the supercomputer ensemble forecast points out that although Typhoon Embryo 92W entered the South China Sea of the mainland with some development, its intensity was not high, and after strengthening into a tropical depression system, it eventually approached the coastal areas of Vietnam. Therefore, whether this unpromising Typhoon Embryo 92W will break out after entering the South China Sea and intensify into Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua", we can only continue to wait and see.
So, is it true that the oceanic tropical clouds that have been reported one after another have developed into Typhoon Jelawar, No. 17?
The latest GFS forecast points out that the tropical clouds in the offshore waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean are not the same as the embryo of Typhoon 92W brewing east of the Philippines, which is simply a paradise for perennial typhoons brewing in the Northwest Pacific, because the high sea surface temperature and good divergence in the Northwest Pacific Ocean will most likely cause Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua" to brew here, and then move westward to approach the Philippine Islands. However, for the long-term forecast of GFS, there is still a suspicion of "drawing a big pie". Because from the current point of view, this kind of long-term forecast is very uncertain. Therefore, it is necessary to wait and see whether the development of the oceanic tropical clouds into Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua" will be reported one after another.
Of course, it is undeniable that there are indeed tropical clouds swelling on the ocean surface of the ocean in the northwest Pacific Ocean, and there are already characteristics of active tropical systems. This can also be seen from the ensemble forecast of the supercomputer, although there are some relatively scattered typhoon lines in the ocean, showing signs of active tropical systems, but these typhoon prediction lines do not react strongly, as for whether the No. 17 typhoon "Gelahua" will be formed, in fact, the variables are still relatively large. At this point, the formation of Typhoon No. 17 "Jelahua" pointed out in the latest GFS forecast needs to be further observed.