Since the previous President Trump, the United States has always wanted to engage in decoupling and establish its own economic circle, and has always felt that fertilizer cannot flow into the fields of outsiders.
But now it seems that after the continuous efforts of two presidents, there was a huge surprise in the decoupling.
Not only the United States, but now it has even affected Germany, and Germany also wants to follow the decoupling, but it may be counter-decoupled.
On the contrary, some allies of the United States did not follow the decoupling in the process, and became middlemen, and their lives became more and more nourishing.
01
Let's start with an example that seems a little far away from us.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year, European countries stopped importing oil and gas from Russia under the control of the United States.
That is, Europe is gradually decoupling from Russia in terms of energy supplies.
But how effective is this decoupling?
Russia's energy export revenues don't seem to have decreased too significantly, at least in the past year or so, although it has fallen first, but has slowly risen again, and this year may be a little better than expected.
This is partly due to rising energy prices, and partly due to the fact that Russia is exporting more oil and gas to Asia.
What's even funnier is that India buys a lot of Russian crude oil, and after reprocessing, a lot of it is sold to Europe.
The so-called decoupling is only a decrease in direct trade, but an increase in intermediate turnover of trade, and this increases the cost of imports for Europe, which is one of the reasons why inflation in Europe is higher than in the United States.
02
A similar situation is also in the United States.
Since the United States engaged in decoupling, it has increased imports from Vietnam, Mexico and other countries.
From 2017 to 2022, the share of mainland goods in U.S. imports fell from 21.6% to 16.3%, and now the two countries with the most U.S. imports are Mexico and Canada, and we are only in third place.
At the same time, however, countries such as Mexico and Vietnam have seen a significant increase in imports from China.
In Mexico, for example, in the past five years, imports of auto parts from the mainland have doubled, and then after being assembled in Mexico, the vast majority of auto products are exported to the United States.
As for the flow of Russian oil into Europe through India, there are many similarities.
Of course, the United States is also increasing its manufacturing capacity as much as possible, but it is difficult.
A domestic new energy manufacturer in Shanghai said that they have also completed the site selection in the United States and will build a factory in the United States in the future. However, the company has made this a dispensable arrangement.
After market analysis, they believe that it is not easy to invest in photovoltaics in the United States, although the United States hopes to revitalize its new energy industry through the Inflation Reduction Act, but the United States is too lacking in related industrial chains.
To complete production, the Chinese manufacturer needs to export aluminum frames, pallets, cartons, and even packing belts from China to factories in the United States.
What's worse is that the stone needs to be shipped from outside the United States, because the main ingredient of the stone is silica, which is needed to make the glass for solar panels.
In this case, how can the United States decouple?
03
Since the United States proposed decoupling, German politicians have felt that it makes sense and have followed suit, but now they face even greater difficulties.
Taking the German automobile industry as an example, this was originally a fist product made in Germany, but now it is very difficult to export.
At present, the German automobile industry has a significant decline in exports to China, while on the other hand, China's new energy vehicles have risen strongly, and exports have doubled, which has caused a severe test to Germany's traditional automobile industry.
Germany has a good chance of becoming a classic case of anti-decoupling.
In fact, the earth has become a village, and after years of market-oriented development, the current industrial chain layout naturally has its profound truth. The so-called decoupling is just forcibly adding intermediate links to the original industrial chain.
Alfaro, an economist at Harvard Business School in the United States, pointed out this fact in a paper in which direct trade between China and the United States has weakened, but indirect ties through Vietnam and Mexico have strengthened.
The British media "The Economist" also believes that now supply chains are becoming more complex, trade is becoming more expensive, and the United States' dependence on China has never decreased.
The facts are there, has the United States always chosen to turn a blind eye?
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