Lukyanov article: Military superiority is no longer a reliable guarantee for Israel

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In this complex world, the Middle East has always been the focus of world politics, and the question of Palestine is a long-standing, complex and ever-changing problem. However, over time, the political landscape and international relations in the region have also undergone profound changes. This article examines the historical and political evolution of the Middle East and the challenges these changes pose to Israel's survival and stability.

The history of Palestine and the world's religious holies, which stretches back thousands of years, is a central issue in the socio-political process. However, we do not have to go back to antiquity, but only to modern history to see the question of Palestine as the focal point of international politics. What we are witnessing is the product of international politics of the twentieth century, and it is also the end of it.

Looking back at the important events of the last century, the First World War led to the disintegration of European empires and dramatic changes in national borders. At the same time, the wave of national self-determination has swept across the Middle East, including Palestine, and the historic cohabitation of peoples on this land has become complex and sensitive. The horrific Holocaust of World War II sparked reflections by the global powers about the creation of a Jewish state, however, the construction of this state was accompanied by serious conflicts from the outset.

During the Cold War, superpowers divided their spheres of influence and provided shelter to all parties in the Middle East. While peace between the poles did help to stop the spread of conflict, it did not bring real peace to the Middle East. With the end of the cold war, there was hope, but peace and justice did not come as expected. In 1994, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and the United Nations declared the goal of establishing two states in Palestine. However, this beautiful plan was quickly thwarted, and in the face of the historical and realpolitik situation in the region, Palestinian autonomy did not smoothly transition to independent statehood. Since then, the process has stalled, with hypocrisy behind it, and although it has not been canceled, there has been no real progress. In 2006, the United States forced "free and democratic elections" in Israel and the Palestinian National Authority, but refused to recognize the results. The incident led to Hamas's control of the Gaza Strip, which eventually sparked a new round of conflict.

The history of the Middle East has often been shaped by the intervention of external forces. However, the current change is that the external powers have to react to the actions of forces within the region.

The U.S. government may have been confident that it could continue to manipulate the situation in the Middle East, but recent events have shown the urgency of the situation in the Middle East. President Biden's visit to Israel, especially in the wake of the terrible tragedy in a hospital in Gaza, undoubtedly showed a kind of political courage. Until then, however, the U.S. may think they have some leverage to play with. They need to support Israel at the same time in order to prevent it from taking more dangerous actions and to reassure Arab countries, especially the Gulf states, in order to calm the situation. In addition, they need to prevent Iranian intervention and make Iran understand that any military action will trigger US involvement. If Iran shows restraint, then negotiations to resume the thaw of funds and relations may become a possibility. Finally, the United States needs to ensure full financial support for all important military allies. However, these plans are now uncertain. The problem is not in specific political-diplomatic mistakes, but in the fact that the United States simply cannot control the course of the world, as it did before, and other great powers face similar problems. This is a systemic shift that will have incalculable implications for the future.

The Middle East's transition from external regulation to internal balance is a difficult process, and success is not inevitable. The problem for Israel is that it has relied for three-quarters of a century on the superiority of force, which is no longer a reliable guarantee of its survival. A change in the overall regional balance could be detrimental to Israel, while the concerns of its main supporters could be diverted to other international and domestic crises. At the same time, Israel lacks the experience of reaching long-term agreements with its neighbors without the support of the United States. The question is whether it has enough time and wisdom to learn to survive in new ways.

The historical and political changes in the Middle East are not only affecting all parties on the ground, but also profoundly changing

Landscape of international relations. The turmoil and uncertainty in the region has spread beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict itself to the global political landscape. In the process, all parties have had to rethink their strategies and policies to adapt to the new realities.

Israel can no longer simply rely on its military might to ensure its survival. Its traditional military superiority is no longer invincible, and Israel faces increasing criticism and resistance in the international community. This has forced Israel to pay more attention to diplomatic and political means in order to gain the support and understanding of the international community.

On the other hand, the question of Palestine also needs to be rethought. For a long time, Palestine had sought the support of the international community to achieve the establishment of an independent state. However, the reality is that the attention of the international community is shifting elsewhere, which makes it necessary for the Palestinians to reassess their tactics to advance their own agenda in the new context.

At the same time, other countries in the Middle East have had to reassess their interests and policies. Iran has been trying to expand its influence in the region, but now it must tread cautiously to avoid provoking an international conflict. Arab countries also need to balance their relations to ensure that their interests are not compromised.

Overall, the political landscape in the Middle East is changing profoundly, which is a huge challenge for all parties involved. The international community needs to do more to find a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to reduce tensions in the region. At the same time, there is a need for greater flexibility and innovation to address new challenges and opportunities. It is only through cooperation and understanding that long-term peace and stability in the Middle East region can be achieved. This will require difficult compromises on the part of the parties, but it is the only way to achieve peace.

Revelation:

This article provides insight into the historical evolution of issues in the Middle East, particularly with regard to the complex relationship between Israel and Palestine. Here are some important takeaways:

Historical complexity: The problems in the Middle East have a history of thousands of years, including religious, ethnic, and territorial disputes. Knowing history is the key to understanding the current situation.

The role of external powers: The great powers and superpowers in international politics have played a key role in the Middle East. These forces have had a profound impact on the development of regional conflicts and settlements.

Difficult resolution of the conflict: Despite repeated attempts to resolve the question of Palestine through the peace process, challenges remain. Historical and socio-political realities complicate solutions, while hypocrisy and political games add to the difficulty.

Changing Internal Balance: Israel once relied on pure force to ensure its security, but a change in the balance within and outside the region threatens it. In addition, Israel's need to adapt to long-term agreements with its neighbors without U.S. support poses a challenge to it.

Complexity of international diplomacy: International diplomacy and politics involve multiple stakeholders and require complex strategic planning to solve problems. The U.S. must find a balance between supporting Israel, pacifying Arab states, preventing Iranian intervention, and safeguarding military customers.

Summary:

The question of the Middle East is a long-standing and complex issue full of challenges and opportunities. From this article, we can draw some important conclusions:

First, the problems in the Middle East are deep-rooted and have a history of thousands of years, including religious, ethnic and territorial disputes. Any attempt to address these issues requires a deep understanding of their history and context.

Second, the great powers and superpowers in international politics have a profound impact on the Middle East issue. Their interventions and policy choices can shape the region, but they can also lead to complexity and uncertainty.

Moreover, the resolution of the conflict in the Middle East is not an easy task. Despite repeated attempts to resolve the question of Palestine through the peace process, historical and socio-political realities have made it more difficult, and hypocrisy and political games have compounded the problem.

Moreover, Israel had relied on force to ensure its own security, but a change in the balance within and outside the region threatened it. It needs to learn to adapt to new ways of surviving and solving problems.

Finally, international diplomacy plays a key role in the Middle East. Complex strategic planning is needed to balance different interests, including supporting Israel, pacifying Arab states, preventing Iranian intervention, and safeguarding military customers.

In short, the Middle East issue is a complex and diverse issue that requires comprehensive analysis and solutions. Understanding history, the role of external forces, and changes in the internal balance is essential for effective policymaking. At the same time, international diplomacy needs to find a balance between different interests in order to achieve lasting peace and stability. This is a challenging task, but it is also crucial, because peace in the Middle East is not only about security in the region, but also about global stability.

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