China and the United States are the world's two largest economies and military powers, and the relationship between the two countries not only affects their own interests, but also affects global peace and stability.
However, in recent years, the contradictions and conflicts between China and the United States have been intensifying, from trade wars to scientific and technological competition, from the Taiwan issue to the South China Sea dispute, from human rights issues to epidemic responsibilities, the two sides have launched fierce games in various fields.
Against this background, there are concerns about whether a large-scale war, or even a nuclear war, will break out between China and the United States. In this regard, former Singaporean Foreign Minister Yeo Eng Man expressed his views when attending a forum.
Yeo Wing Man is a well-known diplomat and scholar in Singapore, who has served as Singapore's Foreign Minister, Minister of Defence, Minister of Education, and once served as Chief of Staff of the Singapore Armed Forces Air Force.
He has deep insights and unique analysis of international affairs. At the forum, he analyzed the current situation between China and the United States, and he believed that if a Sino-US war is imminent, the United States has only one way to win, that is, to use nuclear weapons against Chinese mainland, so that the mainland will directly lose the ability to counterattack a second time.
Yang Rongwen's view is based on the judgment of the current military strength and strategic posture of China and the United States. He believes that China and the United States are not much different in conventional military forces, China has a large army, navy, air force and rocket force, and has made significant progress in missiles, aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, hypersonic weapons and other fields.
Although the United States still maintains the world's most powerful military force, it also faces constraints in terms of human, material and financial resources. Therefore, in a conventional war, it is difficult for the United States to inflict a decisive blow on China.
In terms of nuclear weapons, Yang Rongwen believes that the United States still has advantages, but it is not an absolute advantage. He noted that China currently has about 300 nuclear warheads and about 200 silos, while the United States has about 4,000 nuclear warheads and about 800 silos. Quantitatively, the United States clearly occupies an overwhelming advantage.
However, in terms of quality, China does not lag behind the United States. China's nuclear warheads are all modern, and have the characteristics of multiple warheads, multiple targets, and multiple trajectories. Many of America's nuclear warheads are aging and obsolete and require regular maintenance and updating.
In addition, in terms of launch methods, China also has its own advantages. Yang Rongwen pointed out that in addition to land-based intercontinental missiles, China also has sea-based intercontinental missiles and air-based intercontinental missiles.
Among them, sea-based intercontinental missiles are the most difficult to detect and destroy, because they can hide in the South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea and other seas, ready to launch at any time. Air-based ICBMs, on the other hand, are the most flexible and fast, as they can be launched from the air at any time, regardless of terrain and climate. Although the United States also has these launch methods, they are inferior to China in quantity and quality.
Therefore, Yang Rongwen believes that if a nuclear war breaks out between China and the United States, if the United States wants to win, it must destroy most of China's nuclear weapons in the first strike, so that China will lose the ability to fight back a second time.
And the only way to do so is to use nuclear weapons against Chinese mainland, causing mass destruction and casualties. This is also the last thing the United States wants to do, because doing so will not only attract global condemnation and opposition, but also bring huge risks and costs to itself.
Yang also pointed out that even if the United States uses nuclear weapons to strike at China for the first time, there is no guarantee that China will not have the ability to fight back. He believes that it is possible for China to preserve some of its nuclear weapons in the first strike and use sea-based and air-based intercontinental missiles for a second counterattack.
In this way, the United States will also suffer great losses and pain. Moreover, China may retaliate against U.S. allies, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and other countries. In this way, the United States will lose many friends and supporters.
To sum up, Yang Rongwen believes that the outbreak of nuclear war between China and the United States is an extreme situation and a lose-lose situation. He called on China and the United States to avoid such an outcome and to resolve differences and problems through dialogue and cooperation.
He believes that China and the United States have many common interests and responsibilities, such as maintaining global peace and stability, addressing challenges such as climate change and the pandemic. He hoped that China and the United States could return to the track of rationality and friendship and jointly build a better future.