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Food security has long been a topic of concern. Every time a disaster begins to rage, people worry about the availability and price of food. Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations published food prices and agricultural price indices, which caused widespread discussion. The fluctuations in food and agricultural prices reflect not only changes in markets, but also the fragility of global food supply chains and the impact of international politics.
First, let's take a look at the price movement. Coarse grain prices fell, but wheat prices rose, most notably rice, with the price index up 2.8 percent, up 19.7 percent year-on-year, the highest level since 2011. In addition, vegetable oil prices, which have been falling for seven consecutive months, also began to rise, especially sunflower oil, which increased by more than 15% month-on-month. So why are these price increases occurring?
First, natural factors play a key role. The increase in extreme weather events, both droughts and floods, has severely affected farmland yields. This extreme weather event has led to a reduction in the yield of some crops, further pushing up prices. At the same time, the human factor also plays an important role in price fluctuations. Some countries have introduced food export bans that restrict the flow of food. For example, India is one of the world's largest rice exporters, but recently announced a ban on rice exports, except for parboiled rice and basmati rice, in order to ensure domestic supply. Russia also extended its ban on rice exports until the end of the year, while rice exports from the UAE were suspended for four months, leading to a shortage of rice market supplies. These bans triggered an increase in the price of rice on the international market.
Fortunately, countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which account for large shares of global rice exports, have not imposed similar bans. However, this has not completely eased tensions in the global rice market. Rice prices in Thailand and Vietnam also rose, with rice prices soaring from $300/mt to $1,000/mt, an increase of more than 300%. This has allowed rice exporters in both countries to make significant profits. In the face of these export bans and rising prices, some countries, especially the United States, began to rush to buy rice, and even supermarkets had to impose restrictions on rice purchases, and the rush to buy rice led to an increase in inflation.
For some countries, the question may be asked: is it okay not to eat rice? Sure, but the problem isn't limited to rice. The prices of other grains and edible oils, such as wheat and vegetable oils, are also rising. So, what are the reasons for these price increases?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is one of the important reasons for the rise in food prices. At present, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still ongoing, and Russia has announced that it will not extend the Black Sea grain agreement. This presents significant challenges to the global food supply chain. Russia and Ukraine are among the world's leading exporters of grain, but their grain shipments have been restricted due to the conflict. At the same time, Western countries have adopted a series of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on Russian agricultural products, which have led to the disruption of the food supply chain. Such contradictions and sanctions have made the global food supply unstable and the price increase inevitable.
In the face of the food crisis, some countries have begun to call for international cooperation to alleviate food shortages. However, the actions of the United States raise doubts. The United States reacted strongly to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain agreement and sought to work with allies to address the food crisis. However, the so-called practical action of the United States is to call on China to intervene and make China responsible for solving the food crisis. The United States did this for several reasons: first, China did not impose sanctions on Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so it has better relations with Russia and may be easier to mediate; Secondly, according to the UN Coordination Center for the Black Sea Food Agreement, China is one of the largest destinations for grain in the Black Sea Passage and therefore has some influence. However, this proposal has caused widespread controversy in the international community.
It is important to note that while some countries may rely on food supplies on international markets, China is not one of them. China has a strong grain self-sufficiency rate, and its per capita grain consumption far exceeds the international food security line. In addition, China imports mainly maize through the Black Sea, and most of it is used for feed and industrial purposes, and food consumption does not account for a proportion. Therefore, the international food crisis has not had much impact on China's food security. While China can play a part in alleviating the global food crisis, the United States should take concrete measures on its own, rather than shifting the blame to others.
In summary, the instability and rising prices of global food markets are mainly the result of a combination of natural and international political factors. In responding to the food crisis, the international community needs to actively cooperate and take effective measures to ensure the stability and sustainability of the global food supply and ensure the food security of the people.
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