Topic: Abe's first international mediation: diplomatic highlight turns awkward
Shinzo Abe has recently experienced a highlight moment in diplomacy, but the result is embarrassing. Just read an article in the Wall Street Journal of the United States with the headline: "The fledgling international mediation: Abe's painful lessons". The subtitle of the article is even more pointed: "Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ends his trip to Iran, but the conflict between the United States and Iran has escalated, becoming twice as serious as in the past." This indicates three main points: 1. Abe's ambitious attempt to show diplomatic prowess backfired. 2. His visit actually led to an escalation of the US-Iran conflict. 3. Abe's efforts could come at a cost, with two oil tankers attacked, one of which was a Japanese tanker. Peace good offices are sometimes not without cost, and that is his painful lesson.
This diplomatic mediation should have earned points for Abe, not minus. 1. This was the first visit by a Japanese Prime Minister to Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and was warmly welcomed. 2. Abe became the first seven-nation Western leader to visit Iran since Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, underscoring the "special relationship" between Japan and Iran. 3. More importantly, Trump encouraged Abe before and after his visit, and Abe communicated with Trump. But the final result was taken by surprise, the conflict escalated, and Japanese tankers were implicated. The visit unexpectedly buried two big holes for Abe.
The first big pit: the issue of buying Iranian oil. Abe is unlikely to leave empty-handed, especially during Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's public announcement of Abe's visit, with Japan pledging to continue buying Iranian oil. Interestingly, this was announced by Rouhani, but Abe neither confirmed nor denied it, almost acquiescing. However, Trump has publicly announced that not a drop of Iranian oil will be allowed to flow to the market. If Abe delivers on his promises, it would mean a direct conflict with the United States. But if promises are not kept, it means deceiving Iran and causing more harm to Iran. This puts Abe in a dilemma.
The second big pit: Japanese tankers are more dangerous. Just as Abe was visiting Iran, Japanese oil tankers were attacked. This may be a coincidence, but it is more likely to be the target chosen by the attackers. Again, it is a question of who did it, and both the United States and Iran blame each other. Regardless of who the real culprit is, Japanese tankers are at greater risk. One of the main purposes of Abe's visit to Iran is to secure Japan's oil supplies. However, he did not expect that going to Iran could lead to an attack on a Japanese oil tanker. This is a clear warning to Japan not to support Iran and not to stand against the United States. A commentary in the Wall Street Journal mentioned that Abe considers himself a neutral mediator, but the outside world seems that Japan has a close alliance with the United States.
After two days of unsuccessful diplomatic mediation, Abe eventually returned to Japan and saw the fire on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. One of the tankers was a Japanese ship. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo escalated his accusations against Iran, and the United States sent more warships. Iran's supreme leader has made it clear that he will not meet with Trump, believing that he is not trustworthy. This is the result of Abe's first international peace-brokered effort, and while full of courage, it is more a painful lesson.