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Text丨Xie meat pot
Editor丨Xie Meat Pot
The Chinese population was as high as 1.4 billion at its peak!
However, with the continuous development of society, the birth rate of the mainland is declining, why is this?
What trend will the Chinese population maintain in the future, the United Nations has made a bold prediction about the number of mainland population by 2050, and the results are also unexpected!
So what did the United Nations predict? Is it the same as you imagined?
family planning
China is still the world's most populous country, but as time goes by, the rate of population growth is slowing down and even declining.
According to forecasts, in the near future, India has the potential to overtake China as the world's most populous country.
In the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the population swelled rapidly because it did not implement any policy of restricting births, and because the traditional concept of preference for sons over daughters was deeply rooted.
Although the demographic dividend has provided a large number of labor for the industrialization process and promoted the rapid development of the country's economy, it has also brought great pressure to the supply of food, resources and the improvement of people's livelihood.
In order to solve the dilemma of overpopulation, the Chinese government began to implement the family planning policy in the 70s of the 20th century, advocating "fewer births and better births".
This policy was introduced in response to the resource shortage, environmental degradation and employment pressure brought about by the rapid growth of the Chinese population at that time.
In traditional Chinese culture, the concept of "having more children and more blessings" is a deep-rooted belief that the more children there are, the more blessings the family will have.
This perception has made many families reluctant to accept the policy requirement of having only one child.
Second, families in rural areas place a special emphasis on male heirs, so although the family planning policy has been promoted to a certain extent in rural areas, there are still some families who violate the policy in order to have a boy.
In order to solve these problems, the government has had to adopt a series of coercive measures to promote the implementation of the family planning policy.
In 1979, the Chinese government officially implemented the "one-child" policy, which stipulates that each family can only have one child.
For families who violate the policy, the government imposes a high social maintenance fee, known as the "overbirth fine".
These fines are usually determined based on household income and local government policies, and can sometimes run into tens of thousands of yuan, which is a huge burden for many ordinary families.
In addition, the government has taken other measures to ensure the implementation of family planning policies, such as restricting the right of public sector workers to have children in violation of the regulations, or even dismissing them.
Strict birth quota control is implemented in rural areas, and financial penalties are imposed on families that violate regulations.
These measures have curbed illegal births to a certain extent, but they have also caused some social problems, such as the imbalance of the sex ratio and the increasing aging of the population.
Although the government's draconian measures eventually reined in population growth to some extent, China's birth rate remained high.
However, as the population ages, China is facing new challenges of demographic imbalances.
Due to the one-child policy, many young people need to support four elderly people at the same time, which not only brings a heavy burden to family life, but also hinders the economic development of the whole society.
Open the two-child policy
In order to deal with this problem, the mainland has adopted the initiative of opening up the two-child policy.
However, today, nearly six years after the implementation of this policy, it is far from what was originally expected.
At present, the pressure on young people's lives is increasing day by day, whether it is rising prices, the difficult employment situation or emotional problems, etc., which have shaken the willingness of young people to marry and have children.
Many young couples believe that a family needs only one child and does not need to have a second child.
After all, young people nowadays do not have a high income level, and they not only have to buy an RV for themselves, but also have to bear the double burden of supporting the elderly and raising children, and if they add a new life, the cost of living will increase a lot.
In such a social environment, the phenomenon of late marriage and late childbearing and population aging is becoming increasingly prominent.
With the improvement of living standards and the popularization of education, more and more young people choose to postpone the age of marriage and childbearing, which directly leads to the decline of fertility rate and the aggravation of the problem of population aging.
In response to this dilemma, the government has taken a series of measures to encourage young families.
First of all, the government vigorously promotes the "double reduction" policy, that is, to reduce the academic burden of students and the financial burden of families.
By reforming the education system, the need for extracurricular tutoring and tutoring will be reduced, and the economic cost of parents' investment in their children's education will be reduced.
In addition, the government has also introduced a series of subsidy policies, such as providing education allowances, tuition and miscellaneous fee waivers, etc., to alleviate the financial pressure on families.
The implementation of these policies has made it possible for young people to no longer have to worry too much about the cost of their children's education when considering getting married and having children.
Secondly, the government extended the husband's paternity leave to support the wife to get more time together during pregnancy and childbirth.
Despite this, the decline in the mainland's population has not improved significantly. The United Nations' analysis and forecast of the Chinese population shows that although the population of the mainland will show a downward trend in the next few years, China will still maintain its status as a populous country due to the large population base in the early stage.
The United Nations predicts the Chinese population
Global demographic dynamics are undergoing a transformation that can be traced back to China and India, the two most populous countries today.
According to the results of China's 2020 census, its total population is about 1.44 billion.
Huanqiu.com2021-05-11Communiqué of the Seventh National Population Census (No. 2) - National Population
India's latest census is far from the same, leading to uncertainty about the size of its current population.
To fill this gap, the United Nations predicts that India's population will surpass China's by 2023 and will continue to grow in the coming decades through an analysis of factors such as birth rate, mortality rate, and migration rate.
On the other hand, China's population size has been declining since 2022. The United Nations predicts that by 2050, the Chinese population will fall to about 1.3 billion, still ranking second in the world, while India will continue to grow to 1.6 billion, firmly occupying the throne of the most populous country.
Notably, the United States, which currently ranks third, will be overtaken by Nigeria in 2050, which is expected to have a population of 370 million.
While the United Nations projections provide a useful indication, it is important to bear in mind that these figures are subject to error and need to be analysed in conjunction with other factors.
Beijing News2022-07-12《Medium- and Long-term Trends of Chinese Population: China's Total Population of About 1.3 Billion in 2050》
After all, demographic change is affected by many complex factors, such as fertility policies, education levels, economic development, etc., which will have a profound impact on the future demographic pattern.
Overseas Network2022-01-20Why does the number of births in mainland China continue to decline? What is the key to a flat downward trend in the future? Here comes the authoritative analysis》
First of all, the adjustment of the birth policy has a direct impact on the population structure. As some countries relax or change their family planning policies, they are expected to see an increase in birth rates.
For example, the implementation of China's "two-child policy" and "three-child policy" has led to an increase in the number of newborns.
Second, higher levels of education are often associated with lower fertility rates. When women gain more education and employment opportunities, they may choose to marry later or not have children.
In addition, families with higher levels of education tend to focus more on the quality of their children than on the quantity, which can lead to a decline in overall fertility.
China.com2022-01-20"China Release丨Will the trend of birth population in mainland China continue to decline in the future? Experts: The key is whether the fertility rate can be increased》
Moreover, economic development has a significant impact on population migration and distribution.
With the advancement of urbanization and industrialization, people tend to move from rural to urban areas in search of better job opportunities and living conditions.
This migration has not only changed the face of cities, but has also had a significant impact on the structure of the rural workforce and the aging of the population.
Finally, global migration trends are also reshaping the demographics of countries.
Developed countries attract a large number of immigrants from developing countries due to their higher standard of living and better job opportunities.
Such cross-border population movements not only increase the diversity of receiving countries, but may also pose challenges to local social services and infrastructure.
While the UN's projections provide us with an important perspective on future demographic changes, we must take into account these complex and dynamic demographic dynamics that will have a profound impact on future demographic patterns when formulating policies and plans.
It is undeniable that the shift in the status of a populous country will trigger a chain reaction on a global scale.
China's declining population, the world's second-largest economy, could exacerbate labor shortages and slowing economic growth.
India's demographic dividend may drive further growth in its economic strength. At the same time, the rapid population growth of the African continent also deserves great attention.
In the face of this situation, governments urgently need to formulate forward-looking population policies, balance the population structure, and optimize the allocation of resources.
First, in the face of the growing problem of ageing, many countries have adopted measures to encourage childbearing, such as providing maternity subsidies, extending maternity leave, and improving child welfare.
These measures aim to reduce the financial burden on families to raise their children, thereby increasing fertility rates.
At the same time, countries are constantly improving their social security systems, including raising pension standards, expanding health insurance coverage, and increasing care services for the elderly, to ensure the quality of life of the elderly and the long-term stability of society.
epilogue
Overall, the changing role of the populous country heralds the dawn of a new era. In the face of this change, we need to pay close attention to its deep impact and formulate a comprehensive policy response.
Only in this way can we achieve balanced development between countries and generations, and avoid falling into the "population trap" while sharing the demographic dividend.
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