Analysis of the Lone Ranger's new season lineup: Powell and Hardaway Jr. are two double-edged swords in the lineup

Originally compiled from: The Athletic

Written by Tim Cato

原标题：Dwight Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr. and the Dallas Mavericks’ eternal lineup dilemma

As Luka Doncic's longest-standing teammates, Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway Jr. both joined the team as additions to the trade, with Powell coming to the team in 2014 when the Mavericks got Rajon Rondo in a trade, while Hardaway joined the team in 2019 when he was traded for Kristaps Porzingis. While they've been on the team for years, it's also a sign that the continuity of the Mavericks lineup has stalled.

Since last season's trade deadline, Dallas has finally achieved a huge roster change, the biggest reshuffle since Doncic joined in 2018. Over the past three seasons, Dallas is one of only two teams to split at least 75 percent of playing time to veterans who were on the team the previous season. That will finally change in the upcoming season, with only six players left on last year's training camp roster and together accounted for only 44 percent of last season's total minutes before trading Kyrie Irving in February.

"Honestly, I don't know if I'll stay here in the future." Hardaway Jr. said at the team's media day, which also confirmed that the Lone Ranger was trying to trade him, and the corresponding message had been widely circulated before. He and Powell survived previous attempts at substitution, inevitably returning to the starting lineup after being reduced to the bench one after another. Now, the cycle has started again, and it remains to be seen if the results will be different.

After missing the playoffs last season, Dallas has re-strengthened its roster with a bench with good depth, athleticism and defense. Powell and Hardaway Jr. have been seen as representatives of management failures and inability to build a championship-level squad around Doncic, which is very unfair to these two players who are known to be very hardworking and professional. But none of them are defensive players, they are relatively monolithic in offense, and Dallas knows that Doncic's desire to compete for the championship needs to be satisfied as soon as possible.

Head coach Jason Kidd's first and perhaps biggest challenge this season has been finding a new lineup to replace the older players the team has relied on for years. The latter includes the most efficient trio last season and a combination that Dallas has long used and succeeded: Doncic, Powell and Hardaway Jr.

In the bad last season, Doncic's roster produced the most consistent output when the two teammates he had worked with the longest were present. When all three were on the floor, the Lone Rangers scored an average of 129.4 points per 100 rounds, 11 points higher than their opponents per turn. But even more notably, when Doncic played alone without either of them on the floor, the team scored only 112.9 points per 100 rounds, while losing by 8 points per 100 turns.

Even after Irving's arrival, Dallas still played its best basketball when the two veterans were on the floor. Yes, Doncic will pass the ball to every teammate, but no one else can earn as high a reward as these two.

The team's journey to the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago made clear that Dallas needed to move forward from an era of reusing Powell and Hardaway Jr. Powell's role has diminished as the playoffs progresses due to limited ability in playoff-level events, and the Mavericks' impressive defensive resurgence has something to do with Hardaway Jr.'s absence due to an end-of-season injury. Even without that, both players have begun to show natural decline due to serious injuries and aging (Powell is 32 and Hardaway Jr. is 31).

But if these two players do leave, it may be harder for the team to move forward than it seems. Their role in Doncic's offense has been crucial to this team, even more than they can do as players. Powell is not only one of the best downward centers in the league — he averaged the highest number of points for his teammates last season, but he was also the connecting hub between high-post tacklers and short downward scores.

Usually, these passes of his go to Hardaway Jr., and his desire to project is unquestionable. Only two players in the league (Klay Thompson and Laurie Mackanen) attempted to shoot more catches and three-pointers per game last season than Hardaway (6.0). The combination of these skills invisibly increases the space for the Lone Ranger, and their presence frees Doncic, just as the latter amplifies the abilities of the two.

So it's not surprising if they play a bigger role in the previous Lone Rangers team in the new season without a clear lineup match.

In addition to the six players who were originally on the team's rotation, Dallas acquired three players who were in the regular rotation of other teams last season (Grant Williams of the Boston Celtics, Seth Curry of the Brooklyn Nets, and Derrick Jones Jr. of the Chicago Bulls), a former lottery pick returning from overseas (Dent Exam, a rotation that Kidd says will make it to the team's opener), and two 2023 first-round picks (Drake Lively II, Olivier Maxans Prosper, management thinks they will have a chance to play).

Of these, only Grant Williams can guarantee a starting position next to Doncic and Irving, and even Irving, considering he only played 20 games last season, needs more time to grind with this Doncic-led team. But, unlike previous seasons, the Mavericks now have more capable players on their roster than ever before.

"We do have a lot of new guys," Kidd said after the team's first joint practice. "Talking to those guys at a meeting [the day before bootcamp] was somewhat eye-opening."

Kidd's task this season is not just the rotation of the team, but also the positioning of the team. Since last season's efficient offense still couldn't mask Dallas' poor defense, it was logical to reallocate some of the playing time offered to players with offensive talent to more defensively minded players.

But even Doncic can't turn any five-man combination into an efficient scoring machine, as evidenced by the fact that Doncic scored 16 fewer points per 100 games last season without Powell and Hardaway Jr. than when both of them were on the floor. Should Kidd emphasize defense and size? Or offense and skill? Can he find the right balance between the two? Dallas has enough talent to go in either direction, but not enough immediate power to prove which direction can maximize the capabilities of Doncic's team.

Kidd's first attempt involved two first-round picks, Lively and Prosper. In the team's first pre-season game in Abu Dhabi, UAE, they started alongside Doncic, Irving and Williams. In more than 10 minutes that Doncic was on the floor with both rookies, Dallas outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves by seven points 14-21. Of course, it's preseason, and Doncic plays more like a juggler than a hunter, but the space on this roster is really congested.

While Levley did get his first point in the NBA late second quarter through Doncic's pass, he certainly couldn't provide the same mobility as Powell, at least not yet. If Leffley is on the floor with Prosper (who shot poorly in both games), the defensive advantage of this lineup may not compensate for the lack of static space and inexperience on the offensive end.

In the second game, Kidd replaced Prosper with Josh Green, who was more dynamic on the offensive end. But Green's change hasn't proven effective either, and so far he's trying to find a position to play alongside both stars. When Green played with Doncic and Irving last season, Dallas had just 117.6 points per 100 turnovers. When Hardaway Jr. replaced Green with Doncic and Irving, the team scored more than 10 more points per 100 turns. If Green can consistently deliver impact on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends — hitting more three-pointers and finding more opportunities to show off his talent with the ball and movement off the ball — it will go a long way toward solving Dallas' woes.

Kidd has more options on both the offensive and defensive ends, both offensively (Curry Jr., Ryon Holmes, Jayden Hardy) and defensively (Prosper, Exam, Maxi Kléber). Jones Jr. is one of the most interesting additions, as he has unique skills on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends, although he is not immediately placed in the team's rotation.

But no one yet knows which permutations are correct, or if there are the right combinations. Despite the Mavericks' best efforts, Doncic's on-court chemistry with Powell and Hardaway Jr. has been hard to replace, and they may still have more opportunities than the team's other available options. While Levley and Prosper are better suited to pairing Doncic and Irving in the long run, it may take a year or two for them to become more comfortable with the NBA, which will do little to help the two superstars because their goal now is to compete for a championship trophy.

Two seasons ago, Kidd's first season in Dallas, he led the Mavericks to play far beyond the team's talent, especially defensively. The players' efforts on both ends of the pitch led them to the Western Conference finals. Last season, it's safe to say that the opposite is true. The Lone Rangers tend to waver in the final moments of the game, squandering huge leads on several occasions, for which Kidd must take some responsibility. His initial starting lineup didn't include Powell and Hardaway Jr. — and it was Kidd who drove the signing of Javier McGee — but the two players ended up with 109 starts.

Getting more out of this brand new lineup and finding the right combination for rotation is a challenge. The team needs to play close to Kidd's first season in charge rather than his second, which is important to Dallas' success.

As for Powell and Hardaway Jr., in the long run, seeking promotion in the positions of these two "restored" veterans is still the best choice for the team. Their importance is more reflected in the team's barren roster than in the player's ability itself. But while the squad has changed, there is yet to be a solution to replace them unless the manager has the discernment to find the right fit among a pool of capable bench players and youngsters who are still evolving.

And if Kidd doesn't solve these problems, there's a good chance he'll give his chance to the players on the roster who know the most well, as he has done before.