Huang Qifan prophesied coming? Regarding Chinese real estate, 3 key pieces of information were revealed

Text | Wang Erbao

Owners, buyers, developers and even agents must learn to predict if they want to take advantage of the future real estate changes. But the question is that we all know this, how do we predict it?

In fact, the method is not difficult, the main points are two points:

The first is official media data, and the second is the statements of insiders and experts.

In contrast, I prefer the latter, because as an authority in the field, they often have their own unique opinions.

As early as 3 years ago, former mayor of Chongqing, Huang Qifan, had many predictions and raised many questions about real estate, all of which seemed to be fulfilled.

01 / There are many problems in mainland real estate that need to be solved urgently

If I ask you why mainland housing prices have risen rapidly in the past 20-25 years, the answers must be varied, but to put it bluntly, 90% are wrong.

In this regard, we must look at Huang Qifan's prophecy, revealing three key information:

First, the land auction system has raised land prices, indirectly keeping housing prices high.

Similar to the pre-sale and pooled area systems, the land auction system has also been learned from Hong Kong and has a history of at least 30 years since the 1980s.

It is undeniable that the advantages of this system are obvious, directly jamming all kinds of gray transactions and corruption, but the problems are equally obvious. The characteristic of "the highest price wins" means that whoever pays the highest price can take the land, which directly raises the land price.

Especially in high-quality areas of large economic cities, developers really do whatever it takes to acquire land.

In recent years, the ceiling of land prices in many second-tier cities and above has been broken, reaching 18,000 / square and 20,000 / square is not surprising.

Second, the ratio of house prices to income is unbalanced, as long as the economic environment is not good, the property market is likely to be cold.

Even if it develops for another twenty years, income will still be the basis for ordinary people to decide whether to buy a house. However, for a long time, the mainland's house price-to-income ratio has been significantly higher.

According to international practice, the "1/6 theory" is the most reasonable space, that is, each family can afford to buy a house with 6-7 years of income.

However, the reality on the mainland is that the ratio of house prices to income in Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other major economic cities has exceeded 40 years. Such high pressure is easy to extreme, in the stage of economic strength, even if the house price is high, we will feel that the future house price will definitely rise, gritting our teeth to buy.

But on the other hand, as long as the economy is not good, we will instantly enter a "state of stability", dare not buy a house, and the property market will definitely be cold.

Third, the "rotten phenomenon" is frequent, causing people to dare not buy houses.

According to my understanding, behind the rotten tail represents the imbalance of real estate order, because of illegal operations, there is an order problem.

For example, when auctioning land, the local government has already planned the plot ratio, but then the developer may adjust it from 1.2 to 1.5-2.0 and so on.

For example, when developers build houses, because the funds are very tight, so they borrow various loans, in addition to banks and bonds, but also to trusts and even usury, so there is a mess, and even the people pay money to help the developer release the mortgage, and need to be released twice.

For the people, the final consequence is that their hard-earned money is gone, they can't get a house, and they definitely don't dare to buy a house.

02 / Tax adjustment is one of the key points for the healthy development of real estate in the future

To raise taxes, the first thing that comes to everyone's mind is property tax, but in fact, in addition, adjusting the tax system is also crucial. In this regard, Huang Qifan also put forward his own views.

What I feel most deeply is to "establish a differentiated tax rate system with containment at the high end, encouragement at the middle end, and guarantee at the low end."

For example, the purchase of ordinary commercial housing needs to pay 1% personal tax and 1.5% deed tax, then the purchase of luxury houses is greatly increased to 3% personal tax and 5% deed tax, and if it is sold within three years, it also needs to pay an additional fee.

In fact, regions such as Hong Kong, as well as countries such as France, are using this tax rate model.

As for the encouragement in the middle end, that is, mortgage self-occupied commercial housing deduction income tax and other policies, which is actually very easy to understand, that is, "loan to buy a house tax deduction".

As for the low-end guarantee, it is to build a large number of affordable housing such as public rental housing and co-ownership housing to solve the housing problem.

For Huang Qifan's predictions 3 years ago, from the current point of view, they are basically gradually realized, which is the real expert.

As ordinary home buyers, we must decide how to deal with it from our own point of view.

What do you think about this?

Welcome to friendly discussion!