In the wake of severe flooding in eastern Libya in early September, many hoped and expected that in the face of the crisis, political forces in the east and west of the country would be able to put aside their political differences that had lasted for more than a decade and bring a glimmer of hope for the safety of Libyans. Libya has been divided since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, with the western region, including the capital Tripoli, now administered by a "government of national unity" and recognized by the United Nations, while the eastern and central regions are controlled by the "National Assembly" allied with General Khalifa Haftar and his "national army."
Faced with more than 20,000 deaths, Haftar, the de facto ruler in the east, is eager to push his sons to power, trying to strengthen the family's presence in the long-standing political stalemate. Because he knows that Libyans will not give political legitimacy to the Haftar family at the ballot box, and that the scramble to be a point of contact for disaster relief efforts and international aid is another means of claiming legitimacy.
However, the Haftar sons' attempts to "control the narrative" after the flood have been questioned. They wanted to show that the response was effective and successful, but their lack of experience disrupted the rescue, limiting access to local and international media in an attempt to dominate coverage of their relief efforts. There are growing fears that the Haftar family is using the humanitarian catastrophe to consolidate their grip on eastern Libya and influence the country's political trajectory.
On September 20, 2023, local time, Drna, Libya, Hurricane Daniel made landfall in Libya on the 10th and caused floods, and the city of Derna was the most severely affected, and bridges were washed away. The images in this article are all IC diagrams
A natural disaster, a ten-year man-made disaster
In the early hours of September 11, residents of the northeastern Libyan city of Derna were woken up by a huge explosion. But many people don't take it seriously, after more than a decade, they have long been accustomed to waking up from their sleep, from clashes between the Qaddafi regime and local factions to clashes between militias vying for dominance.
But this time is different, this is the explosion of two dams upstream of Jebel Ali Ahdar (Green Mountain) due to heavy rains. Soon, a seven-meter-high wave from the dam roared from the Wadi Derna valley through a city of about 100,000 people and washed the entire suburb into the sea.
Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has split into a U.N.-backed capital, the Tripoli government, and rival authorities backed by warlord Haftar, whose army controls eastern Libya, including Derna.
Ahead of Hurricane Daniel, an emergency meeting of eastern agencies was held, followed by instructions to Delna residents — most of whom were asked to stay indoors, while people living near the waterfront or riverbed were ordered to leave their homes and no comprehensive or consistent list of evacuation areas was issued. All of these evacuations were based on predictions that the threat would come from rising sea levels, rather than on failures of inland infrastructure and flooding in the Derna Valley.
A local engineer told the BBC that many of those evacuated from the beach entered the centre of Derna, only to be killed by later flooding. The man chose to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals, and his wife and two sons were killed in the tragedy.
On September 20, 2023, local time, Drna, Libya, local buildings were seriously damaged.
The residents of Derna could have avoided these casualties, and the city had long been alerted. According to media reports, years of inspections have made it clear that the dam was originally built with rock and mud, was not strong enough, and was poorly maintained, and cracks even began to appear in 1998. A 2021 report by a state-run audit agency in Libya said that although the government allocated more than $2 million for this in 2012 and 2013, the two dams have not been maintained. Not only that, but for more than a decade, many houses have even been built on the flood plain, which has led to tens of millions of cubic meters of water instantly pouring into the city when the flood breaks out, sweeping the entire neighborhood.
In the face of the disaster, there were rare signs of unity in the divided country, and pleas from the affected towns were quickly answered, and large numbers of aid workers began delivering supplies from cities controlled by rival governments in the west.
But the convoys were intercepted and denied access to Derna.
Immediately after the disaster, the eastern authorities took strict "safety measures". A Libyan Red Crescent aid worker told the BBC: "No one is allowed to enter without their permission. The Libyan Red Crescent was the only aid agency allowed to work in Derna early in the crisis, and he was one of the few aid workers allowed into the city from day one.
"Haftar and his troops only trust the Red Crescent, but the crisis is so severe that there is nothing we can do. We need to enlist all help. The staff member also chose anonymity for fear of being targeted by General Haftar's forces, adding that Haftar prioritized 'safety' over rescue and political divisions before helping disaster-stricken residents of Derna. ”
Haftar's security forces not only turned away volunteers from western Libya, spending hours or even days scrutinizing aid for "weapons that could be smuggled into Derna," while residents in the affected areas were left without food, clean water or medical supplies for days. It is still impossible to know exactly how many people died in the disaster.
Warlord generation
It wasn't until September 14, when the magnitude of the disaster became clear to the world, that a long line of trucks carrying aid from across the country was allowed into the city.
Just as aid groups and foreign health services were trying to organize the rescue, Haftar's eldest son, Elseddik Haftar, was visiting Europe, and he chose the moment to announce his readiness to run in Libya's next presidential election.
Meanwhile, Haftar's youngest son, Saddam Haftar (named in homage to the late Iraqi dictator), was appointed chairman of the disaster relief committee. Saddam, 32, had no experience in rescue operations or management.
In 1990, Khalifa, a former senior commander of Gaddafi's army, went into exile in the United States after turning against Gaddafi, while his sons remained in Libya. After the 2011 anti-Gaddafi revolution, Khalifa made a dramatic comeback. In 2014, Khalifa attacked rival militant groups, triggering a second Libyan civil war, and his Libyan National Army took control of the eastern region of Cyrenaica.
Since then, he has established himself in a strong role in eastern Libya. With the support of various international forces, Haftar adopted a hereditary approach and empowered the children, allowing the family to continue its dominance in eastern Libya for nearly a decade.
After the Derna flood, several sons of the Haftar family appeared at the rescue scene, with Saddam Hussein, as the chief of the month, being the most photographed, but he had no sense of wanting to improve his public image.
On September 17, 2023, local time, Drna, Libya, the local disaster was serious.
The Sky News team spotted Saddam "touring" Drna in a pickup truck full of armed guards. Journalist Alex Crawford noted that when the 32-year-old head of crisis management was asked a few questions, he appeared "annoyed with me."
His rare brief exchange with reporters quickly went viral on X, with one commentary: "He looked angry that he couldn't just kill her." ”
Saddam Hussein has always been the preferred successor. In 2016, at the age of 26, he was appointed commander of the TBZ Brigade (Tariq Ben Zeyad Brigade). This is one of the most influential armed forces in Libya. In 2022, Amnesty International released a gruesome 21-page report alleging that TBZ militants have been terrorizing people through "unlawful killings, torture and other ill-treatment, enforced disappearances, rape and other sexual violence, and forced displacement" in violation of international human rights law and international humanitarian law. In order to "crush any challenge to Saddam's father," they committed crimes with impunity in areas controlled by the Libyan National Army.
Saddam, armed with heavy soldiers, acted very boldly. Media reports said he was suspected of involvement in multiple trafficking activities, including drugs, fuel, gold and scrap metal from confiscated factories. German media and the joint investigative network Lighthouse Reports also exposed his involvement in human smuggling — the smuggling ship from eastern Libya to Europe was actually backed by Saddam Hussein and his forces, according to allegations by survivors of this year's Greek shipwreck.
In 2017, he seized control of the Benghazi branch of Libya's central bank and moved "large amounts of cash and silver to unknown destinations." A 2018 report by the UN panel of experts on Libya revealed that he seized bank safes containing nearly $160 million, €1.9 million and 5,869 silver coins.
Several bank managers said the Libyan National Army commanders put enormous pressure on them to hand over cash and credit documents. Some decided to move abroad for security reasons. The UN report reads.
Avoiding angering the Haftar family has been a basic survival strategy adopted by residents of eastern Libya for nearly a decade. On November 10, 2020, Libyan human rights lawyer and women's rights activist Hanan al-Barassi was shot dead in broad daylight in Benghazi. The day before, she posted a message on Facebook promising to expose Saddam Huftar's alleged corruption.
On the international stage, Saddam Hussein has close ties with the UAE and Russia, including the Wagner Group.
Emadeddin Badi, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, said: "His growing proximity to Russia also reflects contemporary geopolitics, where negative perceptions of the United States undermine America's global standing and many authoritarian leaders balance alliances on this basis." Two years ago, Saddam Hussein even visited Israel, which has no diplomatic relations. There are reports that this is related to a normalization agreement in exchange for military and diplomatic support from his father.
The young Saddam Hussein was an indispensable figure in Libya, but his power came from his father. "[Saddam] has no legitimate claim other than being the most cruel and criminal descendant of his father," Badi told the media. Whether his ambitions can be realized depends largely on the willingness of the Western powers to accept his ambitions. ”
Challengers take the top
Like Gaddafi, Haftar began to share power with his children, giving them power and titles at will. Because of his high-profile performance in military and foreign affairs, Saddam Hussein was considered the most likely person to take over his father's power. His brothers were not particularly supportive of him, though. Of the family's six sons, with the exception of Saddam, Elcediq's political status was particularly prominent.
In order to show a different side from his family's militaristic roots, Elsedik embarked on a non-military path. The 43-year-old politician is committed to projecting a civilian image, often using public appearances and social media to achieve this goal.
When Elcediq announced in Paris his willingness to run for the future Libyan presidency, he thanked his father for his "wise leadership" after the flood in an interview with a Belgian television station. He then refuted claims by Derna residents and experts, insisting that the Libyan National Army had sounded the alarm before Hurricane Daniel hit eastern Libya, ordering "all citizens to evacuate the entire area" but that "no one listened, which led to the tragedy of the floods."
On September 20, 2023, local time, Drna, Libya, local buildings were seriously damaged.
Like several other brothers, including Saddam, Elcediq was born and raised in Benghazi during Gaddafi's long rule. Khalifa has controlled parts of Libya since 2011, but Elsedik has kept a low profile. After the division of the country in 2014, the Libyan National Army staged a "coup d'état," including a 14-month encirclement offensive on the capital, Tripoli, but was eventually repulsed, with no participation in El Sediq.
"He was never associated with any armed groups or security affairs, he was completely civilian," explains Jalel Harchaoui, Libya expert and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies. ”
On official business, Elcedic mostly attended general public events, including ceremonies such as police stations and stadium openings. His striking resemblance to his father in appearance greatly helped the family improve its reputation.
"It provided a way for his father to project influence," Hashaaway noted, "showing that the Haftar family is engaged in a constructive undertaking that shows a vision for the future for the common people." ”
Elcedic was never considered a powerful figure, but that has changed in recent months.
Libya's 2021 elections were lost for a number of reasons, including disagreements over the candidacy of military officials or dual citizens. Elcediq, a civilian who grew up in Benghazi, unlike his father and some of his brothers, perfectly avoided all identity issues.
"He's like a spare tire for the Haftars," Hashawi said, "and if Saddam, Khalid and their father can't run because they're soldiers, then you're going to have to choose the next best option." ”
Elcedik was visiting Europe at the time of the floods, deploying a communications strategy centered on projecting an image as an "ardent defender of the fight against terrorism" in an attempt to build his political influence internationally. The good old man finally waited for this moment, telling reporters: "I think I have all the means to ease and stabilize Libya and achieve the cohesion and unity of the Libyan people." ”
An unstable future
Discussions about elections may be put on hold after the floods, but that won't bother the Haftar family. Khalifa runs the region as a military regime and is not interested in a fair vote. Earlier this month, his men arrested the leading candidate in the municipal elections in Derna, which were called off.
More important for the Haftar family is how to use the disaster to demonstrate that Haftar is superior to the Libyan authorities or any other power. This moment is almost a perfect display of Drna's predicament, as well as the side of Libya's own predicament. It's a catastrophe caused by climate change, neglect and conflict, and a family's quest for power has made it worse.
On September 20, 2023, local time, Drna, Libya, buildings were severely damaged after flooding.
On November 7, Khalifa Haftar will turn 80, a milestone. Tarek Megerisi, a senior EU policy official, likened the situation to the TV series The War of the Succession, predicting that the transition of power would be difficult.
"The people, tribes and community leaders of eastern Libya have made it clear that they will not support a new hereditary monarch and that they will not accept Haftar's son taking over the region. Haftar's sons will find it difficult to get the army to obey them because they have no military education or training and they are involved in a lot of corruption. ”
Although many Libyans have mixed feelings about Khalifa Haftar, they acknowledge that whichever son takes over could plunge the country into a new round of instability.
"Whether you love him or hate him, Haftar represents a specific piece of history." Jalel Hashawi said. An anti-Islamist who supports a secular government, Haftar wrested control of Benghazi, the second-largest city, from a series of Islamist militant groups, giving him some legitimacy to people in the east, including Drna.
Sami Hamdi, editor-in-chief of the diplomatic magazine The National Interest, believes that if Haftar's health does deteriorate, the military unit may be reorganized and Saddam Hussein appointed commander-in-chief. "This may be the only way for Haftar to ensure that Saddam Hussein can challenge any opposition to his inheritance," he argued. ”
At the same time, Khalifa is aware of the limited opportunities for himself or one of his sons to obtain the presidency through democratic means, so he is also trying to make a way in politics. Media reports said Khalifa asked his followers, such as Aguila Saleh, chairman of the Eastern Parliament, and Mohammed Menfi, chairman of Libya's presidential council, to support Saddam in future Libyan presidential elections.
Libya's future path is now clouded in ambiguity, especially over who will succeed Khalifa Haftar, and his sons have shown some ambition, but it is clear that their respective abilities are also questionable.
Karim Mezran, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the media that Haftar's sons would not enjoy as much support from the international community as he did when he rose in Libya. "The UAE and Russia are likely to distance themselves from Haftar's sons and look for more influential people." They have other inclinations in the Libyan army. Any explicit support for Haftar's sons risks losing legitimacy. ”
However, to ensure stability on the eastern border, Egypt may consider maintaining an alliance with the Haftar family. But he added that this was just "maybe" and not guaranteed.
"Foreign countries have no choice but to improvise in the face of the situation and adjust afterwards." Jalel Hashawi agrees that at the moment, no nosy country – not even Egypt – is sure how the situation in eastern Libya will develop the day after Khalifa's death. The great tragedy caused by the floods will not bring more reflection to Libya.