September CPI announced today: oil prices support, gains may continue to rise
China-Singapore Jingwei, October 13 (Wang Yongle) On the morning of October 13, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2023. The average forecast by many institutions shows that the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year in September, and the growth rate continued to rise.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
The year-on-year increase in CPI may continue to rise
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2023, the national CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year. The CPI increased slightly month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase year-on-year.
For the upcoming September CPI data, Wind data shows that as of October 12, the average forecast of 16 institutions for the year-on-year increase in September CPI was 0.2%. From the perspective of forecasts, 8 companies are 0.2% or more, 6 companies are 0.1%, 2 companies are 0%, and the forecast value is the highest 0.5% given by Donghai Securities, and the lowest is 0% given by Galaxy Securities and Peking University National Economic Research Center. According to the average value of the agency's forecast, the year-on-year increase in CPI has rebounded slightly from the previous month.
From the perspective of institutional forecasts, the divergence of food prices coupled with oil prices continued to rise in September, and the CPI may recover slightly.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs website
According to the weekly data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the 200 index of wholesale prices of agricultural products and the wholesale price index of "vegetable basket" products fell first and then rose in September, while the wholesale price index of grain and oil products rose in a narrow range.
In terms of oil prices, after five consecutive increases, refined oil prices were stranded and raised once in September, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 385 yuan and 370 yuan per ton respectively, the second highest increase in the year.
Guojun Macro Dong Qi's team said that for CPI, service prices continue to repair, food prices are relatively stable, and oil prices are marginally supported. CPI is expected to rise to 0.2% y/y in September and 0.5% m/m, slightly above seasonality.
Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that the trend of price recovery in September will not change. Pork prices weakened slightly in the pattern of high supply, but prices of manufactured goods and crude oil-related consumer goods will continue to strengthen. Overall, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2% year-on-year in September, not much different from August.
CICC Macro analysis said that although the traditional peak season is approaching, pig prices remain stable, coupled with the high base in the same period last year, pig prices fell year-on-year, and supply listings depressed vegetable prices, but the double festival boosted tourism prices, industrial consumer goods were also boosted by PPI, CPI or unchanged from the previous month at 0.1%.
How will CPI go in the future?
Looking forward to the price trend in the next stage, Wei Zhichao, chief analyst of Capital Securities Macro, believes that the bottom of the CPI has been confirmed that pig prices may stabilize at a low level in the short term, and oil prices may fluctuate at a high level, which will support inflation to a certain extent, but the impact will gradually weaken. Under the influence of the low base in the second half of 2022, the core CPI may improve the year-on-year data in the second half of the year, but the overall month-on-month repair is still weak.
Sun Binbin's team of Tianfeng Securities said that considering that pork supply may recover marginally after the holiday, weakening demand, and the decline in travel enthusiasm, CPI has a high probability of falling year-on-year, and it is expected that the CPI in October and November will be about -0.1% and -0.1% year-on-year.
Cong Liang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the State Council's regular policy briefing on September 20 that price indicators are lagging indicators of economic operation, and with the steady recovery of demand, market confidence gradually strengthened, economic operation continued to improve, and the low base effect gradually weakened, the overall level of mainland prices is expected to continue to rise and gradually rise to near the annual average level. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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