An economic collapse that is more devastating than the Great Depression may be coming to the United States in 2024

The Great Depression refers to the economic crisis that originated in the United States between 1929 and 1933 and later spread throughout the capitalist world, including the United States, the British Empire, the French Third Republic, Germany, and the Japanese Empire. The socialist country of the Soviet Union was not affected, but on the contrary completed the five-year plan. This crisis is characterized by a long duration, wide scope and strong destructive power, and its root cause lies in the basic contradiction of the capitalist system, that is, the contradiction between the socialization of production and the private ownership of the capitalist means of production. The Great Depression was the longest economic depression in modern society, leading not only to long-term mass unemployment, but also to changing social relations, destroying the ruling government, helping the Nazi Party and fascism to come to power, and eventually leading to the outbreak of World War II.

According to a report by Fox News Network on the 5th, more and more data indicates that an economic collapse that is more destructive than the Great Depression may be about to come to the United States in 2024. If the White House and Congress don't cut government spending soon, the results could be catastrophic.

As the world's largest economy, changes in economic policy in the United States have an important impact on global economic development. In recent years, there have been significant changes in U.S. economic policy, including fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policy. These changes are aimed at stimulating economic growth, increasing employment and strengthening international competitiveness. This article will deeply analyze the changes and impacts of US economic policy in recent years from three aspects: fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policy.

fiscal policy

In recent years, changes in US fiscal policy have been mainly reflected in fiscal deficits, tax policies and government spending.

In terms of fiscal deficit, the US government has adopted an active fiscal deficit policy to stimulate economic growth. An increase in the fiscal deficit means that the government increases the country's aggregate demand by increasing spending and reducing tax revenues. This approach can boost economic growth and increase employment, but it may also increase inflationary pressures.

In terms of tax policy, the US government has implemented a series of tax cuts to reduce the burden on enterprises and individuals and promote consumption and investment. For example, the tax reform bill passed in 2017 lowered the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21% and simplified the personal income tax system. These measures are conducive to stimulating economic growth, but they may also lead to a further widening of the fiscal deficit.

In terms of government spending, the U.S. government has boosted economic growth by increasing infrastructure construction and military spending. These investments can help increase employment and boost industry, but they may increase fiscal deficit pressures.

monetary policy

Changes in U.S. monetary policy are mainly reflected in interest rates, reserves and currency issuance.

In terms of interest rates, the Fed has gradually raised interest rates from zero in recent years. This measure is aimed at stimulating bank lending and boosting economic growth. However, rising interest rates could also lead to capital outflows, putting pressure on emerging market countries.

On the reserve side, the Fed regulates the money supply by controlling the reserve ratio. In recent years, the Fed has gradually raised the reserve ratio to control inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. This measure is good for financial stability, but it may also have an impact on lending rates.

In terms of currency issuance, the US government has adopted quantitative easing monetary policy to increase the money supply by purchasing large amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Such an approach could lower long-term interest rates and stimulate investment and consumption, but could lead to increased asset bubbles and inflationary pressures.

Trade policy

The changes in US trade policy in recent years are mainly reflected in trade barriers, trade partnerships and international economic organizations.

In terms of trade barriers, the U.S. government has taken a series of measures to raise import tariffs and implement non-tariff barriers to protect domestic industries and jobs. For example, in 2018, the United States imposed high tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products, triggering a Sino-US trade war. These trade barriers may lead to intensified trade frictions and have a negative impact on the global economy.

In terms of trade partnerships, the U.S. government seeks to improve trade relations through bilateral negotiations and multilateral mechanisms to promote trade liberalization and facilitation. For example, the United States has participated in the negotiation of several free trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. These agreements can boost trade growth and investment cooperation, but they can also lead to the loss of some industries and jobs.

In terms of international economic organizations, the US government has played an important role in several international economic organizations, including the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund. Through these organizations, the United States is trying to promote global economic governance reform to suit its own interests. However, the unilateral and protectionist practices of the United States may be opposed and sanctioned by other countries.

epilogue

This paper analyzes the changes and impacts of US economic policy in recent years from three aspects: fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policy. Overall, these policy changes are aimed at stimulating economic growth, increasing employment and strengthening international competitiveness. However, these policies have also brought some negative effects, such as widening fiscal deficits, asset bubbles and intensified trade frictions.

In response to these challenges, the United States needs to be more careful in shaping its economic policies to avoid triggering serious economic risks and global instability. Specifically, the United States should focus on the following aspects:

1. In terms of fiscal policy, a balance should be struck between stimulating economic growth and reducing the fiscal deficit. Avoid excessive expansion leading to fiscal crises and recessions by implementing sustainable fiscal policies.
2. In terms of monetary policy, interest rates and reserve ratios should be adjusted in a timely manner, taking into account factors such as inflationary pressures and financial stability. At the same time, supervision will be strengthened to prevent financial risks and asset bubbles.
3. In terms of trade policy, we should actively participate in global economic governance and trade cooperation, and promote international trade liberalization and facilitation. Avoid unilateral and protectionist measures that trigger trade wars and global economic instability.

At present, the US economy is on thin ice, and it will soon fall into another large-scale crisis. The latest data shows that the growth rate of the M2 money supply has been negative for the past three quarters, which means that the amount of available money is shrinking rapidly. The only sharp decline in the U.S. money supply in the past 110 years was in the early 2030s, when the Great Depression was at its peak. However, prices are currently rising despite the collapse of the money supply across the United States. Families across the U.S. are in dire straits, and more and more people are depleting their savings and going into debt to cover basic living expenses.

In short, U.S. economic policy development requires a combination of domestic and international factors to achieve sustainable economic growth, job creation, and social welfare. On this basis, the United States should strengthen cooperation and communication with other countries to jointly address global economic challenges and promote the prosperity and development of the world economy.