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Tensions between China and the United States continue to escalate, and despite the expressed desire for dialogue by the United States, at the same time they frequently provoke China, especially in a chain of events in the South China Sea. However, the United States seems to be more concerned about the Taiwan Strait region. The United States has repeatedly conducted military exercises on "Sino-US confrontation in the Taiwan Strait," hoping to gain an advantage in this conflict. However, American military expert Robert Farley presents a completely different view.
Farley's recent article points out that once a conflict breaks out between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, it could start a long battle. The People's Liberation Army will keep an eye on U.S. aircraft carriers, which are the most important logistics support stations for the United States. China's hypersonic missiles can penetrate all air defense systems currently in service, making U.S. carriers almost doomed. At the same time, the US military has also listed PLA aircraft carriers and warships as its main targets.
Farley believes that the strategic intention of the United States is to force them to retreat through strikes on PLA warships, because the PLA's aircraft carriers are limited in number and may be forced to retreat after losing a few. In other words, the United States is trying to stop the PLA through intimidation.
This view seems to have its merits. In the U.S. plan, they will use resources such as F-35 fighters and B-2 bombers to strike PLA warships before the U.S. aircraft carrier is sunk, and even use LRASM long-range anti-ship missiles for long-range attacks. The United States believes that through saturation strikes on PLA warships, all three Chinese aircraft carriers may sink, directly causing tens of billions of dollars in economic losses, which may undermine the PLA's combat morale.
However, it cannot be ignored that while destroying the PLA aircraft carrier, will the United States be able to maintain small losses? The PLA has YJ-21 anti-ship missiles, as well as DF-21D and DF-26 long-range missiles, and the United States will not be spared if the US aircraft carrier suffers a saturation strike. In addition, the PLA may target both Guam and U.S. bases in Japan, which will leave U.S. fighters with nowhere to escape. In this case, the combat morale of the US military may collapse first.
Farley believes that the U.S. military's idea of "the PLA will retreat" may not be feasible. This may be the case, and the PLA will not choose to retreat for several reasons:
First of all, in terms of operations in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA has a better chance of victory. The United States needs to fight long-range, must consider the problems of logistics supply and strategic depth, and will face an irreversible disadvantage if the US military is destroyed in the Pacific base. The PLA, on the other hand, can rely on Chinese mainland to continuously deliver supplies to the front line.
Secondly, on the territorial issue, the US military has the option of retreating, while the PLA has no way out. For the United States, the Taiwan Strait issue does not directly threaten the U.S. homeland, and U.S. soldiers are likely to be dissatisfied with fighting for other countries' political goals, as the U.S. military complained about in the Korean War. However, the PLA is faced with territorial encroachment, and they have no room to retreat, but to rush forward. Historically, the PLA's fighting morale was on full display in the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and now that they are directly confronted with China's core interests, the fighting morale will only grow firmer.
Therefore, Farley's judgment seems to have some reason. The complexity and risks of the US-China Taiwan Strait issue may far exceed the initial expectations of both sides, which also makes dialogue and diplomatic solutions more urgent and necessary. In any case, maintaining a calm, rational and pragmatic attitude is essential to maintaining regional peace and stability. Such tensions require not only strategic thinking on both sides, but also the attention and efforts of the global community to ensure that opportunities for peace are not missed.
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