Not long after Bashar returned home, his alma mater was suddenly attacked, the number of victims climbed, and the frozen situation in Syria was difficult to say calm.
According to global network reports, on October 5, local time, the Syrian military academy in Homs suddenly suffered a terrorist attack, and more than 100 people suffered heavy casualties in this terrorist attack.
It is said that at the time of the attack, the graduation ceremony of cadets was being held at the Homs Military School, and since it was a graduation ceremony, the scene should be crowded, which is theoretically a great opportunity for extremist groups and opposition groups in Syria to launch an attack.
The Homs Military Academy was attacked
The attacked Homs Military Academy is the alma mater of Bashar and his sons
Over the past 12 years, it is not uncommon for Syria to be shattered by the civil war, terrorist attacks on the territory and even attacks against government institutions, especially between 2016, when the entire Syrian society was almost out of control. But in recent years, the probability of a large-scale terrorist attack in Syria has decreased, at least by a decrease in public media reporting of such events. So this sudden attack on the Homs Military Academy caused more than 100 casualties, which is the largest terrorist attack in Syria in recent years.
The attack on the Homs Military Academy has a prominent position and role in the Syrian military system. To take the simplest example: Bashar and his father, Assad Sr., both graduated from the military academy. Those who know Bashar's life story are well aware that his father, Assad Sr., was not succeeded by him, but by his brother. But then Bashar's brother died in a car accident, and Bashar, who eventually wanted to become an ophthalmologist, had to accept his father's instructions and bear the burden of politics. The first step that the elder Assad paved the way for him was to enroll him at the Homs Military Academy. Therefore, from the perspective of the relationship between Bashar and his son and the Homs Military School, there is no doubt that the officers trained by this military academy must be the future backbone of the Syrian government army. Therefore, the large-scale attack on Bashar's alma mater this time is bound to attract attention from the outside world.
But the most crucial question: Who was responsible for this attack? The Syrian Government seems to be firm when it comes to this issue: this is what terrorist organizations do. But the Syrian government's "terrorist organization" is a broad concept. Because there are so many anti-government forces in Syria, extremist organizations and the opposition are intertwined like twists, and it is difficult to make some detailed distinctions.
Bashar graduated from the Homs Military Academy
The Americans have lost interest in Syria and are unlikely to be behind the attack
When discussing this issue, it is easy for the outside world to think: Could it be that the Americans are behind it? You must know that before the Americans, they were bent on overthrowing the Bashar regime. In fact, the likelihood is low. Because over time, the situation in Syria has changed dramatically.
At the beginning of the Syrian crisis, the United States was indeed bent on overthrowing the Assad regime, and together with Saudi Arabia, it also trained a large number of opponents. But with the rise of the Islamic State and the direct involvement of Russia, the center of gravity of the Americans in Syria has changed dramatically. With the launch of the "great power competition" strategy and the collapse of the Islamic State, the Middle East has declined in the global strategic position of the United States, and the Biden administration is not as interested in the situation in Syria as it was during the Obama administration, and now the biggest concern of the United States is Ukraine.
To take the simplest example: the media under Obama often heard "Assad must step down", but now what? This phrase is already very rare, and even Biden himself rarely mentions the words "Syria" and "Bashar". So the possibility of direct U.S. involvement in the attack on the Homs Military Academy is low.
Biden has no interest in Syria
Since it is not the United States, who will it be? I am afraid that the focus will also be on the hands of the Syrian rebels, or more precisely, on the northwestern Idlib region. However, the opposition in the Idlib region is numerous, if not hundreds, by no exaggeration. But exactly which one did it, this is impossible to judge. But the most likely perpetrator is probably the former branch of al-Qaeda, the Front of Conquest.
The Syrian opposition is dead, but dead, and Idlib is the last stronghold
Speaking of this, we have to talk about the current situation of the Syrian opposition. After the unrest in Syria in 2011, a large number of opposition groups appeared in Syria. There are many opposition groups, such as the Islamic Army, the Free Syrian Army, the Free People of Sharm and so on, and these opposition groups are supported by different forces outside the region.
After the 2016 battle for Aleppo, the Syrian opposition was gradually reduced by government forces. Now the opposition in Syria is mainly concentrated in the Idlib region, northern and eastern Syria, etc. Among them, there are two supported by the United States, one is the Kurdish armed forces in eastern Syria; The other is the Syrian opposition entrenched in the south, near the Jordanian desert.
In northern Syria, there is a zone directly controlled by the Turkish army, in which Turkey has also fostered a Syrian opposition force under its direct control.
The Idlib region was the last rebel settlement
The most concentrated is the Idlib region of Syria, which is called the "Idlib region" rather than the "Idlib province" for the simple reason that the geographical area controlled by the political forces of all parties is not absolute, and the Syrian government forces also have their own control area in the Idlib province. The Idlib region, so to speak, is the last stronghold of the Syrian opposition.
In the Idlib region, the most powerful is the former Subjugate Front, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. Taking 2019 and 2020 as the dividing point, the situation in Syria has entered a freezing period, and it is rare to see major ground offensive operations by Syrian government forces in the Idlib area. But the calm is not the end, Syria is still a situation of broken mountains and rivers, divided by all parties, but the Bashar government has a wider territory and greater advantages.
Therefore, judging from this attack, the situation in Syria is difficult to say calm, let alone end, and the opposition is dead and not dead.