China Xiaokang Network Exclusive article
"Xiaokang" · China Xiaokang Network reporter Liu Jianhua
Kindergartens have changed from "difficult to enroll" to now "difficult to find in a lifetime", reflecting the profound changes after China entered the era of negative population growth, and the resulting chain reaction is continuing.
According to the Ministry of Education, in 2022, there were 5,600 fewer kindergartens, the first time since 2008 that the number of kindergartens decreased in 15 years, a decrease of about 1.94%. Photo by Ning Ying
Looking at the fierce scene of "grabbing degrees" and "fighting for parents and fighting relationships" in the past ten years, there have been a little change this year, especially kindergartens, from the once "difficult to find" to today's "difficult to find in a lifetime".
According to the observation of "Xiaokang" magazine and China Xiaokang Network reporter, on the one hand, the peak pressure of primary school enrollment has increased sharply, and this year's official data revealed that the number of primary school enrollment in Guangzhou is nearly 260,000, an increase of 45,000 over last year! On the other hand, the news of the closure of kindergartens continues, and many private kindergartens have issued notices saying that it is difficult to sustain due to insufficient student resources. Primary schools are crowded, kindergartens are dissatisfied, and there is a double heaven of ice and fire.
Since 2017, the annual birth rate of the mainland population has fallen from 17 million to less than 8 million. Due to the continued low birth rate, kindergarten enrollment in many places has fallen into trouble, especially private kindergartens, and the wave of closure has almost left them at a loss and powerless.
Some industry insiders analyzed that the first is kindergarten, three years later it will be primary school, and six years later it will be junior high school.
The birth rate affects the source of students
"When my second child was in kindergarten, not to mention public kindergartens, even better private kindergartens had to go through interviews and find relationships to get a degree." Chen Xing told the "Xiaokang" magazine, China Xiaokang Network reporter that his daughter was born at the end of 2016, just the first batch after the release of the two-child policy, in 2019 their batch of children went to kindergarten, the interview scene can be described as a sea of people, "although the cost of this private kindergarten is as high as more than 6,000 yuan per month, parents are still enthusiastic."
Chen Xing said that the enrollment of kindergartens in Guangzhou this year is very different from that year, the competition of public kindergartens is much smaller than in previous years, inclusive kindergartens can basically be admitted if they report their intentions, and private kindergartens are even more "begging you to go".
"In my community, there used to be a public kindergarten, an inclusive kindergarten and a private kindergarten, and there were enough students in all three kindergartens, but last year the private kindergarten was closed, and I heard that this inclusive kindergarten is not in class enrollment this year."
According to the Ministry of Education, in 2022, there were 5,600 fewer kindergartens, the first time since 2008 that the number of kindergartens decreased in 15 years, a decrease of about 1.94%.
"Xiaokang" magazine and China Xiaokang Network reporter investigation learned that at the end of last semester, Dongxiao Victoria Kindergarten (Dongxiao Park) in Haizhu District, Guangzhou issued a suspension notice. According to the notice, there are only 108 children in the school this semester, and the decrease in the number of students and the increase in school costs have led to great pressure on operation. Finally, after the study and decision of the board of directors, the campus officially terminated the school on July 31, 2023. Regarding the whereabouts of the 108 children in the kindergarten in the new semester, the school gave two plans: one is to be accepted by the three kindergartens of the institution; The second is to contact the surrounding kindergartens to enter the kindergarten.
Since the beginning of this year, Haizhu District, Huangpu District, Huadu District and Panyu District of Guangzhou City have all publicly announced the approval of the termination of kindergartens. Among them, there are 5 in Haizhu District, 7 in Huangpu District and 3 in Huadu District. It is understood that some kindergartens have been converted into public kindergartens or Puhui Kindergartens, such as Xilong Kindergarten, although it is closed, but as early as April this year, the Huadu District Education Bureau has approved it to continue to run as Puhui Kindergarten, which was previously a for-profit private kindergarten.
An announcement issued by the Tianhe District Education Bureau is also more intriguing. According to the announcement, 64 public kindergartens will recruit transfer students to the society, and some kindergartens that were very popular in the past and made parents grab their heads also appeared in the list of social recruitment, including Guangzhou Municipal People's Government Kindergarten, Guangzhou Municipal People's Government Kindergarten Hua Guan Park, Guangzhou Preschool Normal School Affiliated Kindergarten, and so on.
The fundamental reason for the change in the enrollment of kindergartens in Guangzhou from the past to the current "student" can be traced back to the change in the local birth population in 2017.
According to official statistics, in 2017, the number of births of the household registration population in Guangzhou was the highest peak in the five years before and after, reaching 201,000, while the number of births in the previous five years (2012-2016) was 101,800, 115,800, 113,900, 150,400, and 137,300, which generally showed an upward trend; In the five years after 2017 (2018-2022), the number of births of Guangzhou's household registration population was 171,000, 139,800, 148,600, 118,000, and 109,600, roughly showing a downward trend, and even falling off a cliff in some years.
Some industry insiders believe that compared with public parks, private parks have suffered a greater impact on enrollment, and the cold of private parks is directly related to the increase in the number of public park degrees. "Because there are policy requirements, the proportion of children in public kindergartens should reach 50%, and the proportion of children in public kindergartens and inclusive private kindergartens should reach 85%. Therefore, although some public parks can be filled according to the standard class size of 25 small classes, 30 middle classes, and 35 large classes, because the overall needs to reach 50% and 85%, so it is necessary to recruit students and expand the class quota. The person in charge of a public kindergarten said that the state has implemented three consecutive preschool education action plans, which has promoted the rapid development of preschool education and effectively alleviated the problem of "difficult and expensive to enter kindergartens".
It is worth noting that Guangzhou is not alone. Hangzhou, Changchun, Beijing, Qingdao, Chengdu, Jinan, Dalian and other cities have also issued degree warnings. Correspondingly, many primary schools have ushered in a peak in enrollment, and this year will become the "most difficult year to enroll". This year, the first batch of second-born children reached school age, which may seem like a crowded school year on the surface, but the trend of decreasing in absolute numbers is beginning to appear.
It is not difficult to imagine that if junior high school in 6 years, high school in 9 years, and university after 12 years continue to use the current scale, it may face a severe situation of "stock competition" for students.
The contradiction between student origin and degree
Liu Fei, an education investor in Guangzhou, said in an interview with the "Xiaokang" magazine and China Xiaokang Network reporter that in the past, everyone undoubtedly agreed that education is a sunrise industry for investment, and because of this, in the past ten years, the number of primary and secondary schools and kindergartens has skyrocketed, but now looking back, it is really a double heaven of ice and fire. Looking at the changes in the number of births with household registration in Guangzhou in the past 10 years, there is indeed a feeling of riding a "roller coaster".
A person in charge of a public kindergarten in Guangzhou told reporters that in order to meet the needs of the second child, the kindergarten has transformed the functional field room into a classroom in recent years. "Rationally speaking, although the number of kindergarten admissions has plummeted this year, this is only the beginning of the decline in the number of students, and in the future, we will have to deal with the shrinking enrollment situation, and the increase in the supply of places in the first two years should inevitably lead to a 'wave of closures' of kindergartens in the future."
The arrival of the wave of kindergarten closures, in addition to the reasons for the rapid decline in the number of students, there are also policy factors, such as policy measures such as the transfer of people to public and the takeover of state-owned enterprises, and it is also undeniable that the impact of the decline in the birth rate has occurred. Still take Guangzhou as an example. Guangzhou's birth rate in 2017 and 2020 has clearly become a watershed, and the number of births with household registration has continued to decline in recent years.
This change will have far-reaching consequences. As of 2018, there were 2,190 private schools of all levels (excluding technical schools) in Guangzhou, accounting for 54.73% of the total number of schools in the city; There are 1,252,600 students, accounting for 41.7% of the total number of students in the city.
In the past two years, due to the factors of the private education market and education policies, the number of new private schools has gradually decreased. According to the results of Guangzhou education statistics in 2022, there are 1,583 private schools of various levels in the city, accounting for 40.86%, a decrease of 6 from the previous year, a decrease of 0.38%. Among them, there were 1234 private kindergartens, an increase of 26 over the previous year, an increase of 2.15%; There were 126 private primary schools, down 10 from the previous year, down 7.35%; There were 176 private ordinary junior high schools, a decrease of 22 over the previous year, a decrease of 11.11%; There were 21 private ordinary high schools, an increase of 1 over the previous year, an increase of 5%.
On the one hand, it is necessary to deal with the arrival peak of enrollment, and on the other hand, to consider the future surplus of degrees. This means that the "glut" of places will soon be followed by the enrollment peak. In the future, from kindergartens to primary and secondary schools, and even colleges and universities, they will face the problem of shortage of students.
Zhou Yun, a professor at South China University of Technology, wrote that in fact, the problem of student source has become a crisis for some schools. Some private schools are already feeling the pressure to survive.
Zhou Yun suggested that in the face of the student crisis, the first reform of the education mechanism is to establish a university withdrawal mechanism. "Of course, there is no problem with private colleges, they can't recruit people, they lose money, they don't have money, and they just stop running." However, for a large number of public institutions, they will face the dilemma of not being able to recruit students in the next decade or so. Therefore, it is time to plan ahead and design a reliable and feasible plan for the exit of universities and the arrangement of relevant personnel assets, and rise to the legal level, so as not to be in a hurry. ”
The competition for college students will become more and more fierce, and kindergarten and nine-year compulsory education as basic education are experiencing two days of ice and fire, which not only requires school managers to have correct development concepts, but also considers the wisdom of education authorities.
("Xiaokang" · China Xiaokang Network exclusive article)
This article appeared in the late September 2023 issue of Xiaokang