Not all technologies will go to an "Oppenheimer-like" ending
Author: Zhu Kai
Edited by ∣ Tan Shan
Title map ∣ provided by interviewee
Kevin Kelly (nicknamed KK), who is in his seventies, stands in front of him, and you may be surprised:
Known as a "futurist, Internet observer, and techno-optimist," he hardly uses any technology in his daily life. He only carries an iPhone 8 with him, "the phone records screen time, I only watch 5 minutes a day; I didn't download any social media, only clocks, calendars and ride-hailing apps."
Kevin Kelly, the founding editor of Wired magazine, the founder of the first hacker conference, and the director of the technology website Cool Tools, is the author of best-selling books such as "Out of Control" and "Inevitably". The first time he became known to the public, Keanu Levi, the star of the movie "The Matrix", mentioned in an interview that the crew listed "Out of Control" as a must-read, "and I also gained 15 seconds of fame in Hollywood for this."
Indeed, technology is the biggest label on him. "Out of Control" was published in 1994, in which Kevin Kelly mentioned concepts such as the Internet of Things, virtual reality, and online communities, many of which predicted future scenarios and fulfilled them in the present, and he was also known as the "Internet Prognostic".
He is also a tech optimist. When there are fears that AI will replace human jobs and cause a wave of unemployment, he said that AI is just an auxiliary tool, "AI is more like a symphony of different notes." For example, calculators are smarter than humans in math, and GPS is far better than us in spatial navigation, but humans assemble these functions into cars to achieve autonomous driving."
Cover of Out of Control (Nova Press, 2010).
Chinese readers also know Kevin Kelly because of Out of Control, which was translated into Chinese mainland in 2010. At that time, China's social network was just getting started, and Kevin Kelly was catching up with the time to become popular, as he himself said, "too early or too late will not have this effect." "Out of Control" Douban score of 8.6 points. Zhang Xiaolong, the "father of WeChat", once said: "If a college student comes to the interview and says that he has finished reading this book, I will definitely hire him." ”
Of course, this is not Kevin Kelly's only connection with China.
Back in the '70s, Kevin Kelly, in his early twenties, put on a Nikon Matt camera and embarked on a backpacker trip in Asia for nearly 10 years. In the end, he documented the culture and traditions of Asian countries with 40,000 photographs.
In China, he photographed the smoky Yellow Mountains and the smiling faces of the Bai people. "I always thought that the rock formations painted by Chinese painters and the hidden hideaways behind the clouds were a romantic expression, and I didn't know until I saw these scenes with my own eyes."
In 1979, he traveled to Jerusalem to film a local Easter ceremony, but was locked up outside a hotel because it was too late to return and was confined to spend the night on the slate of a church. When he woke up, he decided to set a 6-month countdown to his death – "I thought I would do crazy things like climbing Mount Everest and going deep sea diving, but in the end I found out that what I really wanted to do was spend time with my family, and I did it for 6 months." ”
Since then, the family has become the focus of Kevin Kelly's life. On his 68th birthday, he followed the ancient Irish custom of writing 68 short life advice for his children and posting them on his blog — unexpectedly, these suggestions went viral on the Internet. Since then, he has continued to write these life advices, and after reaching 500 pieces, they have been collected into a new book, "Valuable Life Advice".
In early September, less than 12 hours after the plane landed, Kevin Kelly was already showing up at the East Library of the Shanghai Library on time to chat with us about his new book, observations on technology, and worldview.
Cover of "Precious Life Advice" (CITIC Publishing Group, September 2023 edition).
"If your job is replaced by AI,
It shows that you did a terrible job"
Xinzhou: You have a lot of readers in China. Type your name on the Internet and labels like "father of the Internet" and "futurist" will appear, do you think they are accurate?
Kevin Kelly: Not all accurate, I don't know where the term "father of the Internet" comes from. I've heard the label "futurist," and I do like to think about the future, but I don't really make many predictions, and I'm not trying to bet on what the future will look like, but I'm trying to talk about the present and future possibilities in an effective way.
I feel more like a recorder than a futurist—I'm an editor-in-chief, often summarizing other people's ideas, and running a podcast that introduces emerging tech tools every week.
New Weekly: I heard that the "Matrix" crew listed "Out of Control" as a must-read. Does the future world depicted in "The Matrix" fit your imagination?
Kevin Kelly: I don't agree. I think the main problem with The Matrix is its setting—powering the mother body with humans, including a series of dystopian episodes, which I don't think is possible. This optimism does not mean blindly believing that the difficulties we encounter will be smaller than expected, but that our ability to solve problems will be greater than imagined. This is not the future that humanity wants, would you want to live in such a future?
So far, I don't think there is a future depicted in science fiction or movies that I approve. The scene in Star Trek is a little bit of what I imagined, but it happened in space, not on Earth.
(Photo/"The Matrix" screenshot)
New Weekly: The emergence of ChatGPT has triggered a wave of AI discussions. What do you think of its prospects?
Kevin Kelly: I now use ChatGPT every day to do various things, answer questions, refine content, make suggestions, etc.; Midjourney and DALL-E2 will also be used to create images. A few years ago I drew with an iPad, and now I co-create art with AI.
I think the revolutionary development of ChatGPT is that it implements the function of dialogue. If you go to Google and search for something, it will extract a piece of text from the mass of content and attach a link to the source. But the difference with ChatGPT is that if you still don't understand something, you don't need to exit the page and retrieve it, but you can keep talking to it. For example: "How many kidneys do bats have?" "What about the bigger bats?" "I heard that doesn't seem to be the case?" From a writer's point of view, ChatGPT is also very valuable, it is a good assistant for retrieving materials.
New Weekly: There are many writers who worry that their jobs will be replaced. In your opinion, why does the emergence of new technologies always cause concern?
Kevin Kelly: All I can say is that if your job can be replaced by ChatGPT, you must be a bad writer, because it writes mediocre things that are not good. So far, I haven't heard of anyone losing their jobs because of AI, I've only heard of stories of people using AI to do repetitive jobs and generate sports scores. Most of the time, people just imagine other people being fired by the AI, not themselves.
My friend said something to the effect that the "technology" that people worry about is actually anything that is invented after they are born. This is certainly not true, but many people feel so. I understand people's concerns about technology, probably because most people are reluctant to learn new things – and while people talk about making changes, they don't actually like to make changes.
Most people don't like change because it takes effort — you have a formed opinion, a fixed habit, and the emergence of new things means you need to change your mind, and that can be uncomfortable. If you're used to getting a taxi on the side of the road, now you need to install an app on your phone and learn how to use Uber to get a taxi, which can seem like a hassle. When ChatGPT comes along, people say, "I'm going to keep using Google, I don't need to change."
I am still used to using cash payment, and it is indeed difficult for foreigners to use WeChat or Alipay to make electronic payments. But when you really learn something, you'll understand that it's better this way.
"The world's Internet will become one"
New Weekly: A lot of people believe that technology itself is neutral and depends on how people use it. "Oppenheimer" director Nolan mentioned in an interview with the Chinese media that "scientists know the consequences of this ... If they don't build this device, the Nazis will build it and will use it against them", feeling that this is an unsolvable dilemma. What do you think?
Kevin Kelly: I talked about this in The Inevitable. Most technologies will inevitably be born in the current environment, for example, artificial intelligence will definitely appear; But who owns the technology, who promotes it internationally, and whether it is open or closed to the public is not inevitable.
It's the same with Oppenheimer. I don't think progress in nuclear science and technology will end with a loud explosion. In different worlds and histories, we will still invent the atomic bomb and prove it works, but throwing it out or using it in a political game is a different choice, and we may eventually agree that we will never use it.
Any planetary civilization in the galaxy could discover nuclear energy and develop an atomic bomb with it, but not every civilization would have to deploy it. As I said, the most evil things are often done by people who think they are fighting evil, like the Nazis who really feel that they are "eliminating evil" and making things worse. So my advice is to act cautiously if you feel like you're trying to eliminate evil.
(Photo: Oppenheimer)
New Weekly: Will the emergence of social media exacerbate social atomization and the emergence of information cocoons? Musk said to limit the amount of time Twitter users can spend more time with their families.
Kevin Kelly: First of all, you can ignore Musk's remarks, just look at those words. But I think people overestimate the impact of social media, and I don't think it will lead to serious consequences.
There are a lot of people who worry about teenagers being addicted to social media, but I think that when you are a teenager, you are curious and obsessed with something, and it's hard to blame education on a certain technology or how often young people use it. You might advise your child to shorten the screen time on their phone, but it's not the government's or business's turn.
Of course, I think the information cocoon exists objectively, and it would be better if we had access to more diverse perspectives, just as Americans can read the Global Times and Chinese news appears in the New York Times. You can also find similar news sites on the Internet that collect major publications from various countries and see headlines from around the world on one page. I think if you want to understand the culture or perspective of other places, it's not as difficult as you think.
New Weekly: What do you think of the development of China's Internet and technology? You once made an observation: China's Internet has evolved from copying foreign business models to now beginning to achieve independent innovation. But in the future, it is necessary to cultivate a cultural gene that Chinese society lacks: tolerance, tolerance of failure and questioning authority. Why did this conclusion come to this conclusion?
Kevin Kelly: Through years of observation. When I talk to Chinese readers, I find that they pay more attention to the development of their careers, such as what they should do and how to make things successful. Many young Chinese entrepreneurs have studied and communicated in the United States, some choose to stay in Silicon Valley, and some choose to return to China to start a business - the same people who are exposed to the same culture will have different choices, so this conclusion is not absolute.
Of course, China's science and technology is developing rapidly. I am optimistic about the prospects of China's electric vehicle industry, and I think Chinese will make a more cost-effective electric car, which is better than Tesla. In addition, I have also heard my peers discuss China's DJI drones, which are at the top of the industry.
DJI carries drones. (Photo/dji.com)
As for the development of the Internet, China likes to use one app to implement all functions and build unified standards and norms on the Internet; The U.S. Internet is freer and more competitive. I think it's good to have competition, but in the long run, I think the world internet will be integrated, and I'd be surprised if 20 years from now you tell me that there are still two separate, parallel internets.
I think the Internet also needs some regulation, but it should not be too early, it should appear later. After all, it's still a new thing, and we don't know enough about social media and artificial intelligence to start regulation, right?
"There are times when I don't listen to advice"
New Weekly: You've written a total of 500 life advice in your new book, many of which you wish you had understood earlier when you were younger. Do you remember the first piece of advice you learned from someone else?
Kevin Kelly: I don't remember exactly. What I still remember is the first thing I learned when I was about 10 years old: if someone wants to take your jacket, you give him your own shirt and give them more; If someone hits you on the right cheek, you should turn around and let them hit your left cheek. This is probably what we call forgiveness.
New Weekly: Every piece of your suggestion is as compressed as possible to 140 words, like the original Twitter, why do you do this?
Kevin Kelly: Most of the channels for contemporary young people to obtain information are not books, but social media such as Twitter and WeChat. I want my suggestions to be seen and remembered by as many people as possible, which also means that they are presented in a form that is easier to retweet, turned into short paragraphs of text, and if you like one of them, you can send it to someone immediately. It's hard to do this with long texts, and over time, information becomes more and more fragmented, and it's hard to see the full picture.
Similarly, I think that the future of a writer is not only to write books, but also to learn to make short videos. I'm also learning to make videos and hope to become a YouTube influencer in the future, haha.
New Weekly: Many people like to seek advice from others, and many people feel that "after hearing a lot of truth, it is still not good to live this life". Have you ever had a history of not listening to advice? Kevin Kelly: Yes. When I was younger, I didn't believe in optimism, or it was hard to imagine the impossible. I was a realist at the time, and I didn't think about these things. But now that my view is completely different, I think it's important to believe that seemingly impossible things will happen and that's the first step to achieving them.
Some experiences and lessons can only be better experienced after young people try and make mistakes themselves, but you can also avoid making some mistakes that others have made, and the two are not in conflict. There is still a long way to go in life, and you can discover new wisdom and principles on your own while learning the lessons and experiences of others.
Young Kevin Kelly (left) poses with his brother as he climbs 5,550 meters of Mount Everest. (Photo/@Vanishing Asia)
"The speed of China's modernization is unbelievable"
New Weekly: You made a lot of interesting suggestions, such as the opportunity to travel to the most distant cities and regions, and spending 6 months at a young age experiencing low-cost living. Does this have anything to do with your experiences when you were younger?
Kevin Kelly: Yes. More than just traveling, I lived long hours in difficult conditions when I was younger, living in a small single room and eating only oatmeal and rice every day. This experience made me realize that I don't need much material things. I also go hiking or camping on a regular basis, and carrying everything on my back makes you think: How much do you really need to survive?
The advantage of this is that you will have a sense of security and confidence in future adventures and attempts. Let's say you get a job at a startup, which means you risk failing and having nothing, but you know you're going to be fine — and the worst case scenario is going to be back to rice, right?
I encourage people to travel when they are younger, to live in different places for two years, and to see the outside world more. See how things work in different countries and regions; Why do people have different understandings of the same thing.
In 2021, Kevin Kelly launched crowdfunding for his travel album "Vanishing Asia". (Photo/@Vanishing Asia)
New Weekly: You do love to travel, and you traveled all over Asia in the 1970s. At that time, the Internet had not yet developed, did it encounter any challenges?
Kevin Kelly: The language barrier is a big problem. When I was in Japan, no one could speak English, and my Japanese was very poor, so it was very difficult to communicate, relying on sign language on the one hand, and trying to write down the words to be said in English on the other hand. Now the situation is much better, in Asia, there are many places with street signs in English, and there are staff who speak English at train stations, post offices, etc.
There used to be a lack of information, little information about some remote areas, no detailed maps before you visit, no reviews of local restaurants or attractions, and no possibility of booking hotels in advance. You'll encounter a lot of unexpected situations, and most of the time you'll actually travel around and decide where to go next.
But now the situation is different, people are more accustomed to making travel plans online, booking hotels and flights in advance. Although everyone has more information, there is less fun to explore a place as you like, there will be no impromptu travel, and there will be gains and losses.
Xinzhou: You have been to China many times, have you felt a big change?
Kevin Kelly: I first came to China in the '90s. At that time, I took my two daughters from Guangzhou by bus to Guilin, and then traveled to Kunming and other places. We took the bus for a whole day, and what surprised me the most was that it was so vast that you could intuitively feel the huge differences in development from region to region, some towns still looked like medieval villages, some farmers worked in the fields, and some modern cities felt futuristic.
When I returned to Lijiang with my family, it was a completely different and modern scene from what I first saw. The pace of China's modernization is truly unbelievable, with a high-speed rail network built in such a short period of time.
In the 1990s, Kevin Kelly was passing through the Tea Horse Road. (Photo/@Vanishing Asia)
"Don't be the best one,
To be the only one"
New Weekly: How much of the advice in the book comes from your personal experience?
Kevin Kelly: Basically. One of the guidelines I follow when writing my advice is that it accurately represents my thoughts, values, and experiences. Most of the suggestions come from my experience, and some of the things that others have said, I have personally verified and understood this truth, and I will turn them into my own experience and put them in books.
One piece of advice is: "Don't be the best one, be the only one." "From what I've seen successful people, they tend to succeed in areas where no one is involved — like my favorite musician Brian Eno, who coined the concept of 'ambient music' when no one was doing such a thing, so he was unique.
Once you want to compete with others, such as becoming the best accountant in the world, you will find that there are too many people and the competition is too fierce, and you are unlikely to be the first because there can only be one first place. My advice is to try a game that no one has played before instead of competing with others.
Kevin Kelly says he's not so much a futurist as a "creative storage bag." (Photo/kk.org)
New Weekly: You have a piece of advice: People should interview their parents while they are still alive with audio recording software and turn it into a personal history, a documentary, or an autobiography. Are you doing this yourself?
Kevin Kelly: yes, I interviewed my own parents, and it was funny. You think you know your parents, but you don't really know them — if I hadn't done this interview, I would never have known that my parents had a lot of stories I hadn't heard of.
Now you don't even have to do the whole process yourself. I had an assistant who was a Mexican immigrant who hired a professional company to shoot the edits, spend hours sitting down and talking about her parents' stories, which eventually turned into a documentary and gave gifts to her parents.
People have been waiting to tell you their stories, they have a desire to talk, but no one has ever asked about their stories. Once you ask them, they will talk about it, not even realizing how dramatic their life is, and that it gives strength to both parties.
My parents have passed away. I did this around 30 and interviewed my father to start with simple questions like: Where were you born? What do your parents do? What was your first memory? What is the environment of your community? What about you and your friends?
Just start with these questions and keep asking more questions. If you have siblings, you can also ask them to talk about their feelings from another perspective, such as how he views a major event in the family? The best question is: please tell me more (about you).
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