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Two weeks after the coup d'état in Niger, the situation inside and outside the country is tense. The Government of Niger has blocked its airspace and refused all overflights. ECOWAS, the United States and France have asked the junta to release overthrown President Mohamed Bazoum, but have refused. At the same time, the entry of Wagnerian forces has made the complex situation in Niger even more confusing. So, will Niger be caught in a four-way struggle, and how will Chinese investment in Niger be affected?
Following the outbreak of the coup d'état in Niger, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum to the junta for the release of the former President and the restoration of order, threatening full-scale military intervention. Nigeria is the leader in favoring the use of force, but opinions are divided within Nigeria, with the Senate and military advocating a political-diplomatic solution. As a result, West African countries have not yet agreed on military action.
However, Niger faces pressure not only from ECOWAS, but also French and American troops. With 1,500 troops in France and 1,000 troops in the United States, it is a military force that cannot be ignored in the region. This is not the first time that France and the United States may act alone, having conducted similar actions in Libya and Mali. However, the French intervention was controversial in some countries and was seen as the "gendarmerie of Africa", while after the withdrawal of troops in Mali, French troops are now deployed in Niger.
Niger not only plays a military role in combating terrorism, but also a partner of European countries in preventing migrants from crossing the Mediterranean. Niger had agreed to accept migrants brought back from Libyan detention centers, and Europe, especially France, could face greater migration pressure if the government changed its policies or relaxed border controls. In addition, Niger's uranium resources are crucial to France's nuclear energy supply, one of the most nuclear-dependent countries in the world. If Niger's leaders change their cooperation or raise uranium prices, France could face an energy crisis or rising costs.
In the face of potential military intervention by France and the United States, Niger has invited Wagner troops to station. Although Wagner has broken away from the Russian government, their interests remain aligned. Wagnerian forces maintained order in many African countries, especially after the expulsion of the United States and France, and they were often invited. At present, the forces in Niger are intertwined and the situation is unstable, and the consequences of a conflict should be unimaginable.
China is Niger's second-largest investor, mainly involved in oil and uranium projects. Political turmoil could hit Chinese investment hard. The Chinese Embassy in Niger has issued a series of emergency security reminders, advising Chinese citizens to take security measures and avoid traveling to Niger as much as possible. However, the presence of Wagner also provides a lesson for China, where overseas investment is on the rise, but political instability can lead to investments that cannot be recovered and Chinese citizens face security risks. Therefore, China may need to consider setting up a security company similar to Wagner to provide more comprehensive security for Chinese companies and citizens.
In short, the coup d'état in Niger has sparked concern and tension in the international community. The future direction of Niger remains unclear, compounded by the intertwining interests of regional and international Powers. All parties need to respond cautiously to avoid triggering a bigger crisis.
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