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In April 2022, the head of Roscosmos, Rogozin, announced the termination of cooperation with the West on the ISS, and the countdown to the division of the ISS in two officially began, the specific timing of which will depend entirely on Russia's decision.
Recently, Andrei Ionin, a Moscow-based space analyst, noted in an interview that Russia is likely to end cooperation with the West on the International Space Station in 2024. Such a decision bought NASA two years to build a propulsion module on the International Space Station.
If the Russian segment leaves as scheduled, the ISS, worth more than $160 billion, will split in two. However, concerns about whether the American segment will crash are superfluous. The ISS is built by 16 countries, but the United States and Russia have an absolute advantage in segments, a total of 16. The Russian segment is critical for the operation of the space station.
Although the ISS is located in outer space, it is still theoretically in a thin atmosphere, and the resistance of gas molecules gradually reduces its natural altitude, about 2 kilometers per month, and the Russian module must periodically raise the orbital altitude, costing about $50 million in fuel.
However, if the Russian module operates independently, its fuel consumption will be reduced to 1/3 of the original, ensuring the altitude of the International Space Station will be more cost-effective.
In contrast, the US segment will face even greater difficulties. The loss of the Russian module means the loss of the propulsion system, making it difficult to raise altitude or avoid the impact of space debris. However, this does not mean that the American compartment will crash, in fact, it can still be saved.
The United States has three spacecraft equipped with propulsion systems: the Cygnus cargo spacecraft, the SpaceX Cargo Dragon spacecraft and the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft. With proper design modifications, they could all become a section of the International Space Station propulsion module, specifically the Cygnus cargo spacecraft. Its appearance is a "round iron drum" and two saucer-shaped solar wings, its net weight is 3400 kg, and its maximum carrying capacity is 2700 kg.
The Cygnus cargo spacecraft has made 17 successful flights, most recently on February 19, 2022, to provide commercial resupply to the International Space Station. Currently, the spacecraft is berthing on the International Space Station. Therefore, even if the Russian module leaves, the Cygnus cargo spacecraft can temporarily take over the maneuvering operation of the International Space Station.
However, the excess fuel of one Cygnus cargo spacecraft will only allow the ISS to last an additional 2-3 months, after which the space station will need another new Cygnus cargo spacecraft to replace the depleted spacecraft. This is clearly not a long-term solution, and intensive space launches are costly, so the best solution is to convert a Cygnus cargo spacecraft into a propulsion module, enlarge the size of the fuel tank, and carry 2.7 tons of fuel at a time.
2.7 tons of fuel could keep the ISS in use for months, but it was still far from ideal, so a dedicated propulsion module would need to be built. Every time the Tianyu cargo spacecraft sends supplies to the International Space Station, it replenishes the propulsion module with a certain amount of fuel to ensure the altitude of the International Space Station.
In general, although the departure of the Russian module will put the ISS in a certain situation, it will not have a devastating impact on it. On the contrary, Russia will be able to save a lot of fuel costs, while the United States will need to invest a lot of money and resources to keep the space station up and running.
In summary, the future of the ISS will face many challenges, but it will also usher in new opportunities. Space agencies should work together to make positive contributions to the protection and development of the International Space Station in order to promote greater achievements in space exploration.
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