How did a hurricane cause such a catastrophe? "Unnatural factors" behind Libya's "natural disaster"

Why did the severe flooding caused by Hurricane Daniel cause huge humanitarian disasters and economic losses - the "unnatural factors" behind the "natural disaster" in Libya

Recently, Libya, which has been mired in war and division for many years, has suffered another huge disaster - the flooding caused by Hurricane Daniel in the Mediterranean Sea, causing heavy losses in many parts of the east of the country, and the death toll is as high as thousands or even tens of thousands.

How did a hurricane cause such a catastrophe? Experts believe that rare extreme weather and lack of maintenance infrastructure have combined to lead to disastrous consequences. Global climate change, persistent wars and the continuous intervention of foreign forces are the deep-seated causes of this tragedy.

One

On September 19, local time, Arabia TV quoted the Libyan Minister of Health as saying that up to now, the number of victims of floods in Libya is 3,351.

However, the number of deaths published by the World Health Organization differs from the above figures. According to the latest WHO data, as of the 19th, 3958 deaths have been confirmed. There have also been reports of tens of thousands of deaths, with about 10,000 others missing.

In addition, according to Arabia TV on the 18th, the Libyan National Unity Government said that about 70% of the infrastructure in the flood-affected areas was damaged, and 11 bridges collapsed due to flooding, two of which connected Derna, Sousse and Quba.

In addition to the direct damage caused by floods, the danger of "a major epidemic after a catastrophe" has also risen sharply in the affected areas. UN agencies warned on the 18th that after the floods in Libya, the local drinking water source was polluted, coupled with poor sanitation, which worries about the spread of disease. This could lead to "another devastating crisis". At present, nine UN agencies are working together to prevent outbreaks in the affected areas. The relevant local departments in Libya also said that they will put more energy into health and epidemic prevention work.

Libya is located in northern Africa, on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. On 10 September, Hurricane Daniel made landfall in eastern Libya, bringing torrential rains and flooding along the country's eastern coast, causing massive casualties in the eastern cities of Derna, Beida and Shehat. Since the floods came at night, many residents were "washed out into the sea" in their sleep, and at least 20% of the worst-hit district of Derna, has been completely washed away.

Two

The source of such a catastrophe was Hurricane Daniel. The storm first formed off the coast of Greece in the Mediterranean and brought heavy rainfall and flooding to Greece and Turkey before making landfall in Libya. According to Xinhua, as of September 12, heavy precipitation had killed at least 27 people in Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey.

On September 10, Daniel landed on the eastern coast of Libya, and there was a daily rainfall of 150~240 mm in many areas of Libya, which was equivalent to the rainfall of Libya in previous years. Even since meteorological records began, Libya has never recorded more than 100 mm of precipitation in 24 hours.

In the worst-hit areas, the precipitation brought by "Daniel" is even more amazing. Daniel reportedly brought 400 millimetres of rain to Libya's northeastern coast in 24 hours, up from 1.5 millimetres in the region in September. The United Nations said the city of Al-Bayda, nearly 100 kilometers from the city of Derna, saw a new daily rainfall of 414.1 millimeters. Libya's National Meteorological Centre said this set a record for rainfall in the region.

The reason why "Daniel" can bring such heavy rainfall is because, on the one hand, in the context of climate warming, the Mediterranean Sea has repeatedly experienced higher SSTs in recent years, which is conducive to the formation of hurricanes; On the other hand, the storm slowly crossed the Mediterranean, moving south from Greece and absorbing large amounts of warm ocean vapor, causing heavy rainfall after making landfall in Libya.

It is worth noting that as early as March this year, the sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly pointed out that "although the frequency of Mediterranean hurricanes may decrease, global warming will increase the intensity of Mediterranean hurricanes".

Three

In addition to the effects of climate change, the political and socio-economic situation in Libya has exacerbated the gravity of the disaster.

Libya has been mired in ongoing divisive turmoil in recent years. To this day, Libya still has "two governments": the Libyan National Unity Government in the capital, Tripoli, recognized by the United Nations, controls part of the western region; The Libyan National Congress, allied with the "National Army", controls mainly the eastern and central regions. In addition, there are many large and small tribal forces, regional armed forces and even terrorist organizations in the country.

Due to years of war, Derna does not have a unified central government, and the local infrastructure is old and the flood resistance is quite weak. As early as 1998, cracks appeared in the Abu Mansour and Birad dams upstream of Derna. But restoration work only began in 2010 and has since stalled. Since then, an annual budget has been allocated for the restoration of the dam, but construction has never begun.

On the night of the 10th, it was precisely because the two dams on the Derna River collapsed under the impact of the flood, and the turbulence generated by them rushed straight down the mountain, resulting in heavy casualties in the downstream city of Derna.

In addition, United Nations World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Talas said on the 14th that if the Liberian meteorological department can issue a warning, emergency management agencies can also evacuate people in advance, then large-scale casualties can be avoided. But the reality is that the long civil war has severely damaged Libya's meteorological observation network, and the eastern and western governments sent contradictory messages to the local population before the disaster.

Regarding the "man-made" factors other than these "natural disasters", some experts pointed out that the United States and other Western countries carried unshirkable responsibility for their armed intervention in Libya in 2011.

After the armed overthrow of the original regime in Libya, Western countries that "muddied the waters" intensified the political struggle and social tearing in Libya. In the following ten years, Libya's continuous turmoil and division created conditions for more and more regional forces to intervene, which further escalated its internal contradictions into proxy wars and made Libya a game for major powers.

Some media commented that despite so many players vying for power and influence, no one thought about the inhabitants of Derna or its crumbling dam - until it was too late. (Liang Fan)