Author: Ni Yuqing
Editors丨Luo Yifan, Zhang Xing, Jiang Peipei
On September 13, Apple released the iPhone 15 series of mobile phones and new watches, Apple CEO Cook said, this is Apple's strongest series. But public opinion is a different scene, this year's Apple new products have attracted a large number of netizens to complain, regarded as "squeeze toothpaste", "no highlights", "no innovation".
Why isn't Apple's strongest series paid for by the market? Can iPhone15 still make Apple's industry chain "carnival"?
Perhaps affected by this, on the day of the release of the iPhone 15, Apple not only fell its own stock price, but also the stock prices of fruit chain companies represented by Luxshare Precision and Industrial Fortune Federation also fell. This has also happened after Apple's conference in recent years.
Some industry insiders believe that with the strong return of Huawei mobile phones, Apple's position in China's high-end mobile phone market is no longer as stable as before, and the competition situation in China's mobile phone market will continue to change.
Insufficient innovation, netizens complained
In fact, "lack of innovation" has become a label for Apple in recent years. Everyone is looking forward to Apple's disruptive products, but hardware that exceeds expectations is always a scarce commodity, and Apple is doing more to improve and micro-innovate.
Compared with the intuitive change in the mechanical appearance of the folding screen, the upgrade of the Apple mobile phone is not obvious. For example, the iPhone 15 Pro series uses the A17 Pro chip, and the performance of the first 3nm chip goes without saying, and Apple continues to strengthen the local computing power; In terms of lenses, Apple finally has a 5X telephoto and can shoot 3D video; The titanium body reduces the overall weight of the phone; The interface finally changed from Lightning to USB Type-C; Spirit Island is also used throughout the system.
Among them, the evolution of chips, the addition of 3D video, and the upgrade of UI interaction can be said to be highlights, but the iteration in refresh rate and moving images is inferior to many Android manufacturers. On the one hand, Apple leads industry trends in chips, interactions, computational photography and other fields, on the other hand, Apple is late in some functions, and it has its own judgment between change and experience, business and innovation.
It is worth noting that not only mobile phones, but also Apple has reached a certain height in ecology, hardware, supply chain, developers and other dimensions constitute the Big Apple ecology is becoming more and more mature, and mobile phones have become the cornerstone of the ecology. Now the ecology created by Apple, including the opening of multiple terminals such as PCs and mobile phones, is the result of its own long-term efforts, Windows and Android want to achieve the interconnection ecology, Apple through self-developed chips, operating systems and other complete sets of systems to take the lead.
For Apple's update direction, the focus in recent years is still on the ecology, individual product updates, innovation is becoming more and more difficult, but Apple benefits from the ecology, through mobile phones to harvest the profits of watches, headphones, and even to Mac and other product lines, more profit-oriented, rather than market share.
Even from now on, Apple's ecological innovation is still not radical, on the contrary, Apple still continues its conservative strategy and insists on "being yourself". Even the stunning computer M1 chip in the first two years was not born, the chip project has been developed for a long time, of course, the 5G baseband chip has not been successful. Whether it is chips, mobile phones or watches, Apple is still continuing its own solutions.
Apple's "circle of friends" stock price fell sharply
However, the capital markets did not pay for it that day. After the conference, Apple's own stock price fell, and the head Apple supply chain also responded to the correction. As of the close of trading on September 13, the fruit chain enterprises that the public is more concerned about fell as a whole, with Industrial Fortune Union falling by 2.18%, Jept falling by 3.68%, Dongshan Precision and Sunwoda also continuing to decline, falling by 4.87% and 1.95% respectively, and Luxshare Precision shares falling by 8.29%.
Taking Luxshare Precision as an example, the stock price has already experienced a decline as early as last week. On September 8, some investors asked on the interactive platform, "The company's orders with core customers are not normal?" Will there be a downward revision? ”
Luxshare Precision responded: "The company is concerned about the market's concerns, Luxshare's customers are global leading enterprises at home and abroad, based on the deep understanding of the industry, the market and technology, we can share with investors who care about Luxshare, and the business served by Luxshare has exceeded the market level as expected." Based on the spirit of the contract, it is indeed inconvenient for us to quantify in detail, but we can remind investors whose confidence is shaken, don't worry, our customers and we are still excellent, and this is also the embodiment of our years of accurate judgment. ”
Luxshare Precision is one of the three major assembly manufacturers of Apple's mobile phones, which is closely related to Apple's market performance. A few days ago, CICC Technology hardware research report analysis believes that Luxshare Precision's recent pullback is mainly due to mood fluctuations, with the recent release of Huawei Mate 60, the market is worried about related product sales, there will be potential erosion of Apple's iPhone shipments, thus worrying about growth, "We believe through calculations that the short-term market reaction is too pessimistic." It is estimated that the impact of the sale of Huawei Mate and other products on Apple's actual shipments may be less than 5%. ”
Chart: Enterprises with the highest profit scale in the Apple industry chain
Source: The financial community
Apple and Huawei peak showdown
Not long ago, Huawei officially released the Mate 60 series of new machines, and the pre-sale link was quickly sold out as soon as it was on the shelves. Many industry insiders believe that Huawei's new products will revive China's smartphone market and inject new vitality into the long-weakened market.
For companies in the Apple industry chain, this may be a representative point of view, but Apple has indeed ushered in a strong rival to return.
This year's Apple autumn conference, the popularity of Huawei snatched a lot, even if the Apple conference just ended, the first place on the Weibo hot search list is still the Huawei conference.
The simultaneous release of the iPhone 15 series has brought the two smartphone giant brands head-to-head, and Huawei has returned in the past four years to once again compete with Apple. Counterpoint Research believes that the Mate 60 series and X series are designed to test market reactions and adjust production schedules in time, while preempting the minds of consumers ahead of the release of the iPhone 15 series.
According to Counterpoint Research, sales of the Mate 50 series are about 7 million to 9 million, so analysts expect that if supply is not a problem, the Mate 60 Pro series will sell at least more than 7 million units.
In addition to overall sales, the high-end market has become the focus of the battlefield. In the years when Huawei was strategically retreating due to sanctions, Apple continued to dominate the mobile phone market and earn most of its profits, and although Apple's revenue fell for three consecutive quarters, net profit in the latest quarter was still growing year-on-year. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple led the global smartphone revenue and operating profit in the second quarter of this year, with a share of 45% and 85% respectively.
IDC senior analyst Guo Tianxiang pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that although the upgrade and change of Apple's mobile phone is not obvious, domestic Android mobile phone manufacturers have made some progress in China's high-end mobile phone market by relying on continuous technological innovation and brand image construction, but Apple still has obvious advantages. In the future, with the return of Huawei and other domestic Android manufacturers to establish their own high-end product rhythm and high-end brand image, Apple's high-end mobile phone market in China will encounter more challenges.
However, it should be noted that the stock prices of Apple and Supply Chain have always fallen around every conference in recent years, and it seems that it has become the same "routine" as "lack of innovation". From the sales volume of the first two years, in the end, Apple repeated the "boring" story ending: no matter how the market share of competitors changes, Apple always occupies the high point of industrial revenue and profit.
From this point of view, for more than three years, Apple or lack of challengers, everyone expects Huawei, Android camp, etc. to make more industry innovations. But at present, in terms of high-end fields, in addition to Huawei's fierce return momentum, there are not enough effective attacks from other competitors. Of course, under the dual-line strategy of straight plate machine and folding machine, the share of domestic mobile phone manufacturers in the high-end market has increased, but the road to high-end is not easy, and it takes time and patience.
What is more complicated is that this is not only because of Apple's own strength, but also mixed with geopolitical, economic factors and other reasons, which contributed to Apple's dominance. In addition, everyone has to face the general trend that the consumer electronics market has indeed hovered for a long time in the past two years, and has been at the bottom of the U-shape, and the recovery will almost become a consensus until at least 2024. Some people in the industry chain believe that the overall situation in the past two or three years will not be too good, and some investors told reporters that the market may not really recover until 2026.
In the face of low tides, whoever can steadily cross, maintain growth or reduce the decline may be the winner. Now Huawei mobile phones are launching a counteroffensive, in the Chinese market, whether from the brand degree or high-end, Huawei's foundation has always existed.
IDC data shows that in H1 2023, the top five in China's mobile phone market share of more than $600 are Apple, Huawei, OPPO, Xiaomi and Honor, accounting for 67%, 15.6%, 4.2%, 3.7%, 3.2% respectively.
The return of Mate 60 Pro is bound to have an impact on the domestic mobile phone market, and the entry of strong competitors will bring pressure and motivation. With the rise of Huawei mobile phones, Apple will also face a new Chinese market, and the changes will gradually become clear.
SFC
Editor of this issue Peipei Jiang
Apple's iPhone 15 series debuted with Huawei's peak showdown
From 5999 for sale! iPhone15 is a smart island, say goodbye to the lightning interface! Apple's stock price fell
iPhone 15 "difficult"? Apple's new product release highlights are mediocre, and the counterattack at the bottom of the industrial chain is still a question mark