Although the data has not yet been released, I think it is necessary to make my own judgment before that.
Analyze the market, that is, make predictions before there is no fluctuation, whether it is right or wrong, at least say your own understanding and opinion, and then go to pay, so reasonable, if gold really falls, can meet their trading profits at the same time, but also let the spirit win, if it rises, it means that there is a deviation from their own judgment, and they will also give up the idea of bets.
You have to know what this CPI data means for international gold tonight and make your position clear.
Before this CPI, I have tried to participate in short trading every day, and there are quite a few combined profits so far, and you guys are the same, so think about it, is it necessary to bet all on this data? What are we afraid of? If you don't have a basic data understanding, you won't end up empty, and then you will increase the weight, or even go up, the loss accumulated in the end is easy to exceed the standard, the most disgusting thing is the quilt cover, you and I are wearing shoes now.
And the bulls are now barefoot, if the data is bearish and really falls, then consider yourself unlucky, but if you are bearish and do not fall but rise I will earn, if you dare to surprise the data is bullish, then I will earn and earn, at least I can free this week's bulls from the trap trade, so this data is a straw for them, do you understand? Do you need to play with bulls in such a state tonight?
This data market is expected to rebound 0.4%, core annual rate is expected to be 0.4% lower, and, on the eve of the data, that is, last night the market also had an expected decline, how can there be temporary bulls looking at tonight's big rise? As long as you do more, you are trapped to be freed, and you must understand this fact.
Let's take a look at the year-on-year rate, which is compared with the data in August last year, why is the market expected to rebound by 0.4%? Because throughout the month of 78, crude oil prices were high, do you remember last month's inflation data? Yes, lower than market expectations, but higher than June, why?
Because last June was the peak of inflation in the United States, and July has a decline of about 0.5%, the base is here, even if crude oil is soaring throughout July, but compared to the degree of decline in July last year, you can't see that inflation has fallen significantly, and the economic data of the United States in July is a slump, whether it is the service industry or the manufacturing industry, which is why the market is expected to rebound so high.
For this data, you don't have to worry about what if inflation rebounds and then stimulates silver to drive gold higher? Let's put it this way, more than 5% is the first stage of inflation, and the Fed has let it down to the second stage, so even if inflation rebounds to 4% in the short term, it is not enough to cause high inflation to stimulate the rise of precious metals, this does not have much concern, now the market wants to get a message, that is, the Fed to inflation in the second half of the stage will not be smooth, if not, can prolong the cycle of high interest rates in the United States know? In this way, the logic of the positive dollar bearish gold comes out.
Therefore, my expectations for this data are actually a bit exaggerated, 4%, no need to be surprised and sigh, just give my own expectations, can you say later.
Then there is the core inflation annual rate, this data is interesting, you will find that it has fallen compared to the previous market value, simply put, this is the core inflation level excluding energy and food, with a better reference strength.
Here you don't have to be surprised, just remember a logic, as long as the core inflation remains above 4%, then this is impossible for the current Fed to cut interest rates uniformly, because this is always an intolerable high inflation level, plus, in August, we got the US housing data is very good, which will naturally drive some housing inflation upward.
Also, the ISM service industry capacity value in August is very high, so we have no reason to doubt that the US service industry in August has not recovered, this is already a fact on the table, and August is the peak tourist season in the United States, at this time air ticket and hotel prices have picked up, to a certain extent will also pull up the price of service inflation, so this data we only need to get a result, that is, it doesn't matter if it is lower than market expectations, as long as it can be equal to last month, or higher than last month's value.
This is the key to watching the data tonight, under this blessing, what I am looking forward to is definitely the dollar rising, for gold, as long as it does not meet the standards of these two data, at least tonight I will not be too hard and rigid market, what do we want? Is the direct break of the 1900 plunge, so that the space can be expanded, if not this result, then the subsequent probability of gold is also the so-called range repeat, why do it today to the end? Big deal, just look for another opportunity tomorrow?