The increasing tension in the Sino-US trade circle has aroused widespread concern and speculation. In recent years, China seems to have been passively responding to U.S. actions, whether in the field of arms, chips or 5G. This phenomenon has caused dissatisfaction among some netizens, who have questioned why China cannot take the initiative to decouple from the United States and get rid of its dependence on the United States.
This is not the case, China's passivity is not due to fear of decoupling, but because as an industrial power, China cannot easily destroy its own trade ecology. However, a series of recent Chinese initiatives have attracted widespread attention. China began canceling large numbers of U.S. orders, prompting an urgent warning from the former U.S. secretary of state, who said the U.S. had little time left.
China is a large country with a population of 1.4 billion, and its demand for food is huge every year. Therefore, food security has always been an issue to which the Chinese Government attaches great importance. China not only actively manages its domestic grain stocks, but also imports large quantities of grain from friendly countries such as Russia and Pakistan. This move is not only to ensure domestic food supply, but also to deal with the US threat to China's food security and prepare for the decoupling of food between China and the United States.
Three of the world's four largest grain merchants are based in the United States, namely ADM, Bunge and Cargill, which control the global supply chain for agricultural products such as soybeans and corn and have a huge influence on global agricultural production. They buy back agricultural products from developing countries through concessional loans to farmers and cooperatives and the provision of pesticides, fertilizers and seeds. These agricultural products end up flowing to large agricultural importers such as China, thus making huge profits.
However, China has gradually moved away from its dependence on the United States for grain, canceling a large number of external import orders. According to Nikkei Asia, China has canceled a large number of U.S. corn orders since the spring, which is a huge shock to U.S. agriculture, equivalent to 7.4% of the actual U.S. exports to China for the whole year.
At the same time, global food security faces enormous challenges. Ukraine's granaries have been scrapped, making spring plowing impossible and grain export channels blocked. In addition, the United States and Japan pose a serious threat to Asian fisheries through nuclear wastewater discharges, resulting in the need to consume large additional amounts of feed each year, which further exacerbates the pressure on food supplies. China's cancellation of U.S. agricultural orders is not only to ensure food independence, but also a warning to the White House that China is preparing for the decoupling of the United States and China in response to a potential crisis.
After China dealt a serious blow to the US agricultural sector, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger urgently issued a warning to the Biden administration, stressing that Sino-US relations must improve. Kissinger, as a former promoter of Sino-US relations, very much hopes that the two sides can avoid subversive conflicts, and at the same time calls on the US government not to provoke China in words and diplomacy. He also pointed out that in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China, Ukraine and Russia have all shown dissatisfaction, and the international order has been seriously damaged. Kissinger believes that there are only a maximum of 10 years left in the relationship between China and the United States to find balance, so the Biden administration should seize this opportunity.
Overall, China is taking positive steps to ensure its own food security and to prepare for the challenges that a U.S.-China decoupling may bring. At the same time, the United States is facing changes in the food supply chain and threats to global food security. How to deal with Sino-US relations and find a balance will determine the direction of future development. This is a complex and critical moment that requires calm thinking and positive action on all sides.