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The volatility of the property market has always been a barometer of the social economy, and in February 2023, the property market once again attracted widespread attention. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, the transaction volume of the property market this month presents a changing picture, as if a fierce competition is being staged.
Looking around the first-tier cities, the increase in transaction volume exceeded people's expectations, and the overall increase was a staggering 31.9% month-on-month.
Among them, Guangzhou and Shenzhen showed a clear upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 5.0%, while Shanghai both fell year-on-year. However, the second- and third-tier cities did not show weakness, and the overall month-on-month transaction volume achieved an increase of more than 40%, especially Jinan with an astonishing 108.16% increase.
At the same time, the inventory side of the property market has also decreased slightly. In the overall property market environment, the inventory of Shenzhen's hot land fell by 4.89% month-on-month, which indicates the activity of Shenzhen in the property market.
However, what is worrying is the performance of land, and the urban data monitored by the China Index Research Institute reveals a year-on-year decline in overall land supply, especially a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40% in residential land launches. At the same time, the overall transaction situation is that the volume has fallen and the price has risen, and the average price of homesteads has increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
Based on the above data, the property market seems to be experiencing a complex baptism. Although the current property market has shown some signs of recovery, on the whole, it is still facing a lot of pressure.
Especially when developers' funds are relatively tight, the land auction market is still sluggish, which seems to indicate that the recovery of the property market will not be smooth.
Looking back on 2022, the overall scale of the real estate industry has also decreased, and Clarion's statistics show that the total sales of TOP100 real estate companies fell by 42.1% year-on-year. In this environment, the number of housing enterprises with sales of more than 100 billion yuan decreased by 19, and the number of housing enterprises exceeding 10 billion yuan also decreased by 51.
This has undoubtedly had a significant impact on the fundamentals of the property market, after all, the performance of developers is often a bellwether of property market performance.
At the same time, the decline in population growth has also exacerbated the uncertainty of the property market to a certain extent. For 61 years, there was negative growth again, which undoubtedly had a profound impact on the relationship between supply and demand in the property market. The large-scale construction of affordable housing also plays a pivotal role in the pattern of the future housing market, and this series of factors suggests that it is difficult for the real estate market to reproduce the hot scene in the future, and the continuous rise in housing prices may no longer be the norm.
So the question is in front of us, in 2030, that is, in just 7 years, how much will a house worth 1.5 million yuan be worth in hand? In this regard, Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan's views are the same.
Wang Jianlin once said in an interview that the reason why Wanda transformed the cultural industry is to meet the long-term development in the future. According to his research, no country in the world has been able to continue to thrive for more than 50 years.
He pointed out in particular that although house prices in first- and second-tier cities may rise in the future, the housing prices of third- and fourth-tier cities, especially county towns, which continue to have a net outflow, are likely to continue to depreciate, and the depreciation will even increase.
Ma Guangyuan, as an expert who has always been optimistic about the overall property market, has also recently begun to change his position. He also believes that the property market in third- and fourth-tier cities will have limited space for development in the future, especially when the population continues to decline, it is difficult to maintain purchasing power and high housing prices are difficult to sustain.
He also made three "20%" points, namely that future buyers should choose 20% of cities, 20% of properties, and 20% of developers. The so-called 20% cities refer to those first- and second-tier popular cities with a continuous net inflow of population; 20% of the properties refer to properties with high quality, superior location and excellent property services, because the demand for improvement and replacement will dominate the property market in the future, and this part of the property will also become the first choice of buyers, so the future appreciation potential is greater; Finally, 20% of developers, their business conditions are relatively healthy, the reputation is good, and choosing such developers can also provide more protection for buyers.
Comprehensive Wang Jianlin and Ma
Combining the views of Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan, we can clearly see the potential of the value of 1.5 million properties in hands today by 2030. For properties located in third- and fourth-tier cities, the outlook does not seem promising. As the population continues to decline and purchasing power declines, housing prices in these cities are likely to continue to depreciate, and may even lose up to 50% of their value. For properties located in first- and second-tier cities with growing populations, as well as properties with quality and location advantages, the potential for future appreciation will be even greater, which will not only mean higher values, but also attract more buyers.
In the face of such a prospect, as a buyer who just needs a home, it is important to consider carefully. Choosing a property with long-term appreciation potential not only needs to consider the city's development trends, but also the quality of the property, the location and the credibility of the developer. As Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan say, future buyers should focus on a small number of high-quality cities, properties and developers to better protect their wealth.
To sum up, the complex changes in the real estate market have forced people to re-examine the value and significance of buying a house.
Whether it's the plight of developers or demographic fluctuations, it's silently changing the rules of the market. In the next 7 years, 1.5 million properties may have different fates, and how to make an informed choice will directly affect the wealth security of every home buyer. Only by accurately understanding market trends and rationally looking at investment can we overcome difficulties in the future real estate market and protect our financial dreams.
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