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The storm changed, Wagner retreated, the "rebellion" subsided overnight, Putin won and lost
Overnight, Russia's impending "civil war" took an unexpected dramatic turn. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said
Through Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, agreed to stop the "rebellion".
Turning around and returning to the field camp in the Wudong region, bloodshed and even civil war in Russia were avoided.
Russian Protection Chief Sergei Shoigu (left), Wagner's boss Prigozhin (right)
At the same time, Russia has no plans to punish Prigozhin for the time being. Peskov confirmed,
The criminal charges against Prigozhin were dropped, the domestic anti-terrorist operation was cancelled, and the Wagner officers and soldiers who participated in the operation were pardoned.
And the Wagner units, which initially refused to follow Prigozhin in the rebellion, will sign a service contract with the Ministry of Defense as originally planned.
Although Putin initially characterized the actions of the Wagner group as a "rebellion," the many conditions Prigozhin put forward to the Defense Ministry before the war actually looked more like a "defection" than a "defection."
The difference is that the mutiny only expresses dissatisfaction with the superior commander and does not leave his own camp. Despite Wagner's surprise attack on the Russian army, he did not seek refuge from outside forces and stopped his "rebellious" behavior in time.
The Wagner headquarters building was cordoned off
As a result, Russia avoided civil war, Prigozhin may have gotten his way, and the Russian Ministry of Defense absorbed some of Wagner's forces, but the rebellion undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow to the morale of the Russian military and civilians.
From this point of view, Putin won, but also "lost" the contest.
With the Ukrainian army launching a counteroffensive, this is likely to give the West more options. For example, instead of spending money to support Ukraine, it is better to bribe Wagner and disintegrate the Russian army from within.
For this riot,
The U.S. response was rather muted. The US State Department issued clear instructions to embassies prohibiting diplomats from communicating with foreign countries about the situation in Russia.
When asked about the attitude of the US side, he said, "The US side has no intention of intervening, but is closely monitoring the development." Moreover, regardless of how the situation changes, the United States insists that "support for Ukraine will not change."
US President Joe Biden
Based on past experience, if the United States is involved in the rebellion led by Prigozhin and Wagner, the United States will definitely make a big fuss afterwards and launch a public opinion war against Russia.
But this time, the United States was extremely cautious, which shows that the sudden change of troops of the Wagner Group was unexpected by all Western countries. Russia is very cautious about intervening in the wars of NATO countries. If the US side does not draw a clear line now, it will further damage US-Russian relations after arousing Russia's suspicions. This undoubtedly increases the risk of a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.
But whether or not the United States was involved in the incident, the Wagner insurgency exposed Russia's internal weaknesses to the West.
With a little use, it is quite possible to turn the tide on the battlefield.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Take the Wagner Group, for example. Although they are small in number, they are all elite soldiers and hold a large number of military secrets of the Russian army. If they fail or do not work or collude secretly with Western countries, there may be consequences for the Russian army. Heavy blow.
For Russia, Prigozhin's surprise attack may well have made Putin decide to get rid of this potential threat. Of course, it's not yet time. After all, the Wagner Group is a weapon against the Ukrainian army, and it is valuable. Even if they want to eliminate Prigozhin, after the truce, there will be a reckoning after the decline.
Earlier, Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Russian Defense Ministry troops from Bakhmut and even arrested a Russian serviceman. After the Ministry of Defense issued a "conscription order",
Prigozhin's open defiance and refusal to hand over the leadership of the Wagner Group reflects a major conflict between the mercenary group and the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Wagner mercenaries on the streets of Rostov
Of course, every time Prigozhin puts on a show, he ends up with a promise of support from the Ministry of Defense, so this riot is likely just a show to express his dissatisfaction with the Defense Department in exchange for better treatment, but I didn't expect that. Crossing the peak. Although Putin did not hold him accountable this time, he may still find ways to evade Prigozhin and keep Wagner in the hands of the Russian Defense Ministry.
In fact, even if Prigozhin launches a rebellion with the support of the West, he will not be able to go deep into the heart of Russia alone. First of all, the departure of the Wagner Group was unpopular. It allows foreign enemies and fellow citizens to kill each other.
The Wagner Group has no mass base
。 Second, despite the fierce struggle, the loss of the support of the state apparatus does not pose much of a threat. It is clearly unrealistic to challenge the entire regular Russian army alone.
In general, the rebellion of the Wagner Group is bound to fail. Thankfully, no greater damage was done. Tensions in Russia have largely been contained, but that's for sure
The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to sign contracts with mercenary groups, and it may only be a matter of time before Prigozhin is fired and prosecuted.
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Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Although Putin has a strict attitude towards the rebellion, he still asked Lukashenko to mediate, indicating that Putin has not lost control of the situation, but the Russian army still has a lot of work to do to suppress the negative impact of the rebellion, and it will be soon. This could be a new combat operation against Ukraine, and the intensity of the war could escalate again. It is still hoped that all parties will exercise restraint and give peace a chance.
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