#财经新势力#
Recently, Wanda Commercial Management held an inquiry roadshow in Hong Kong. The main purpose of this roadshow is to enquire about Wanda Commercial Management's listing in Hong Kong and negotiate with interested investment institutions.
It is understood that there are already two foreign-funded institutions willing to be cornerstone investors, but the premise is that the price must be suitable enough, and the pricing of Wanda Commercial Management's listing is undoubtedly the core of the most concerned by all parties at present.
If the pricing is right, Wanda Commercial Management will complete its listing on Hong Kong stocks by the end of the year, and the financial crisis faced by Wang Jianlin will also be resolved.
However, it is still unknown whether Wanda Commercial Management can finally go public smoothly and whether Wang Jianlin can survive the crisis again by relying on listing.
The richest man is short of money
Since the beginning of this year, the news about the former richest man Wang Jianlin and Wanda has always been inseparable from the word "lack of money", whether it is reducing the holding of Wanda Film shares to cash out 5 billion yuan, or selling 49% of Wanda Investment shares to Shanghai Ruyi in exchange for 2.262 billion yuan in cash. The direct reason for Wang Jianlin's "cutting meat" is the huge debt that Wanda bears.
According to the half-year report released by Wanda, as of the first half of this year, Wanda had a total debt of 141.283 billion yuan, of which the debt due within one year was close to 30 billion yuan. Wanda's cash and equivalents are all converted, but only 16 billion yuan.
This also means that Wang Jianlin must gather at least 140 small targets within half a year to allow Wanda to continue operating.
However, Wanda's financial report in the first half of the year showed that the company's total operating income was only more than 25 billion yuan, while the net profit was only 6.729 billion yuan. Therefore, if Wanda's operating capacity is increased by more than 2 times in the second half of the year, it will be able to repay its debts at the end of the year, but this is basically impossible for Wanda.
Since the road of making money to pay off debts is not feasible, can you try to borrow money to pay off debts? The answer is also no, the downturn in the real estate market has led to sharp fluctuations in the price of bonds issued by Wanda, and it is basically difficult to raise funds in the market if it continues to issue bonds, and Wanda Commercial Management's repeated postponement of the listing of Hong Kong stocks has undoubtedly had a huge impact on investors.
However, these are not the biggest headaches for Wang Jianlin, and the biggest problem for Wanda and Wang Jianlin at present is the upcoming performance bet.
Because according to the gambling agreement signed by Wanda and investors, if Wanda has not successfully listed this year, then Wanda needs to spend 44 billion yuan to repurchase shares. And these 44 billion will undoubtedly be the last straw that crushed Wanda.
Wang Jianlin, who is 69 years old this year, appeared in a CCTV program some time ago.
Wang Jianlin in the shot, dressed in a black suit and with thick black hair, is still very capable, but unlike before, under the thin figure, there is an unconcealable haggardness and anxiety, and some netizens commented that Wang Jianlin's whole person has been "out of phase".
It can be seen that Wang Jianlin's life is indeed difficult now, Wanda must complete the task of going public this year, only by going public, Wanda can escape.
How much is Wanda's equity worth
This year, a lawsuit between Vanke and Wanda has made "Wanda's lack of money" once again the focus of public attention. However, behind the "lack of money in Wanda", there is actually something more worth playing.
Vanke applied to the court to freeze Wanda's assets, and the court froze 1.98 billion shares of Wanda's equity, according to the stock price calculation when Wanda introduced investors in 2018, the corresponding assets of these 1.98 billion shares reached more than 120 billion yuan, accounting for one-third of Wanda's total assets, but the dispute between Vanke and Wanda was only more than 1 billion yuan.
So, is it Vanke who made a fuss and used small disputes to freeze Wanda's big property, or did Wanda's stock price valuation in 2018 have shrunk more than 100 times in 2023? Of course, the possibility of the latter is very small, after all, although Wanda is difficult, it is still to the point of closing.
However, this incident still illustrates a problem, Wanda's share valuation must be much lower than 5 years ago.
Wanda's stock price is not only related to whether Wanda can successfully go public, but also directly related to how much money Wanda can raise from investors to deal with the debt crisis it is about to face.
So is it possible for Wanda to make certain concessions on the stock price in order to go public? After all, Wang Jianlin was previously delisted from Hong Kong stocks, mainly because he believed that investors in Hong Kong stocks did not recognize the goods, and his company's stock price was completely unworthy of his company's operating conditions.
However, this time Wang Jianlin is likely to continue to insist on the stock price, after all, compared with when it was delisted from Hong Kong stocks, the environment and survival resources faced by Wanda are much worse.
The continued downturn in domestic real estate is likely to weaken Wanda's voice in stock pricing. Although the current real estate stimulus policies are frequent, it should be known that the current rescue policy is basically only for the residential market, and commercial real estate has not yet entered the scope of the rescue.
Therefore, if domestic commercial real estate wants to recover, it must wait until the residential market recovers. When the residential market will pick up is still unknown.
The business such as shop operation and leasing, which Wanda Commercial Management relies on, has been greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic and is still in the recovery period. And coupled with multiple factors such as domestic economic growth and lending, and the people's willingness to consume, Wanda's business is still full of difficulties.
Therefore, Wang Jianlin is likely to make certain concessions in the pricing of Wanda's share price, after all, this is already related to Wanda's life and death.
【Conclusion】
In China's real estate industry, the evaluation of Wang Jianlin is not uniform, but everyone has always believed that Wang Jianlin is a very decisive person who kills and decides. From the previous sale of assets to Sunac and R&F in exchange for cash to save themselves, to this year's cutting of meat stocks to pay off debts, it can be seen that he is decisive to survive with a broken arm. This time, in the face of Wanda's life and death test, Wang Jianlin will probably make decisive concessions, if the listing goes smoothly, then Wanda's current crisis can be regarded as truly over.